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The 6.9-magnitude earthquake in Izmir was reminiscent of the possible major earthquake in Istanbul that was expected from the 7.4-magnitude earthquake in Gölcük on August 17, 1999. According to studies prepared by TÜBİTAK MAM, the Observatory Kandilli and the IMM experts; The probability of an earthquake of 7 or more in Istanbul in 30 years in the Sea of Marmara is 65%. The question of how prepared is Istanbul for an earthquake, which has left 21 years behind in a 30-year period, is on the agenda as is the case after every earthquake. We have compiled the latest earthquake preparedness point in Istanbul for Sözcü readers.
IMM President Ekrem İmamoğlu announced the “Earthquake Mobilization Plan” after the 5.8 magnitude earthquake that took place off the coast of Silivri on September 26, 2019. İmamoğlu announced that they will be intervened within a year 20 thousand buildings are expected to be damaged in Istanbul and the modernization will be completed in 2 years.
START BUILDING SKILLS
In this context, the IMM launched last July the “Rapid detection methods project for the risk analysis study”. The rapid detection methods that started in Avcılar and Silivri will continue according to the risk classification in Istanbul. There are a total of 1 million 166 thousand buildings in Istanbul. 255 thousand of the buildings were built before 1980, 533 thousand between 1990-2000 and 376 thousand between 2000-2019.
44 BILLION RESOURCES REQUIRED
IMM’s objective is to strengthen 20 thousand independent units in 1 year, 100,000 in 5 years and all these independent units against disasters in 10 years. According to calculations, a minimum resource of TL 44 billion is required for disaster-oriented transformation.
Even in the 5.8 magnitude earthquake that occurred off Silivri on September 26, 2019, 224 heavily damaged buildings and 754 slightly damaged buildings were detected in Istanbul.
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO: 48 THOUSAND BUILDINGS VERY DAMAGED
Based on a devastating 7.5 magnitude earthquake scenario included in the “Earthquake and Damage Loss Prediction Study” conducted by IMM’s Earthquake and Terrain Analysis Directorate and Boğaziçi University in 2018;
The number of seriously and seriously damaged buildings in Istanbul will be 48 thousand, and the number of buildings with medium or higher damage will be 194 thousand.
In other words, 22.6 percent of the buildings will be demolished, 25 million tons of rubble will be created, 30 percent of the roads will be closed, 463 drinking water points, 1.45 sewage points and 355 natural gas points.
There will be a total of TL 120 billion in structural and non-structural economic losses.
This study was updated in 2019. And the Department of Seismic Risk Management and Urban Improvement, Directorate of Seismic and Soil Research, privatized the data for this project on a district basis. By doing analysis and mapping specifically for districts, “Districts Probable Earthquake Loss Prediction Brochures” were produced for 39 districts of Istanbul.
Components such as building damage, possible loss of life and injury, damage to infrastructure, and the need for temporary shelter in a possible earthquake were analyzed and reported. Brochures pertaining to 39 districts were made available to the public on the website “https://depremzemin.ibb.istanbul/guncelcalismalarimiz”.
AVERAGE AND MORE THAN HUNDREDS OF BUILDINGS WILL BE DAMAGED
In the brochures, they drew attention to the damage to the construction that will arise in a possible earthquake in Istanbul and the size of the needs for temporary shelters. 2 thousand in Arnavutköy, 3 thousand in Ataşehir, 10 thousand in Bağcılar, 6 thousand in Bakırköy, 4 thousand 200 in Beyoğlu, 9 thousand in Büyükçekmece, 2 thousand in Çatalca, 5 thousand in Esenler, Fatih 15 thousand in Kâğıthane, 2 thousand in Kartal, 13,000 in Küçükçekmece, 3,000 in Sancaktepe, 9,000 in Silivri, 45,000 in Sultanbeyli, 7,000 in Tuzla and Üsküdar. Moderate and higher damage is expected in 4 thousand buildings.
TEMPORARY ACCOMMODATION
35 thousand in Avcılar, 13 thousand 500 in Başakşehir, 27 thousand in Beylikdüzü, 4 thousand in Çekmeköy, 67 thousand 410 in Esenyurt, 14 thousand in Gaziosmanpaşa, 17 thousand in Kadıköy, 20 thousand in Maltepe, The need for temporary housing will arise for 28 1,000 households in Pendik, 16,000 in Ümraniye, 6,600 in Sarıyer, 10,000 in Sultangazi, 900 in Şile and 31,000 in Zeytinburnu.
THE BUILDINGS HAVE 20 AND MORE THAN 40
83 percent of the buildings in Bahçelievler, 91 percent in Bayrampaşa, two-thirds in Beykoz, 90 percent in Güngören, 92 percent in Şişli are 20 years or older; About half in Beşiktaş, more than half in Adalar and a third in Eyüp are 40 years old or older.
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