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ON THE AGENDA OF A DAM AROUND 10-12 PERCENT FOR ALLIANCES
In the studies carried out by the AKP, it is emphasized that although the possibility of moving to a narrow electoral system and lowering the electoral threshold, which is from 10 percent for parties, to 7 percent, is at a threshold of around 10-12 percent. the alliance agenda.
AKP officials stated that they are aware of the loss of votes, but they hope that the vote will be recovered, and within the scope of the regulations issued on a possible electoral period, it is also important to work on the Law of Political Parties and the Electoral Law and to determine a threshold for possible alliances.
ERDOĞAN REGULATORY CHANGE SIGN
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also announced the legal reform, saying: “We are beginning comprehensive work to make changes in political parties and electoral legislation in order to improve democratic participation.”
According to the average of the results published by 16 survey companies in the last three months AKP 36.3%, CHP 24.8%, IYI Party 12.7%, MHP 9.6%, HDP 9.9%. In the elections held in 2018, AKP received 42.56%, CHP 22.64%, HDP 11.7%, MHP 11.1% and the Good Party 9.96%. Although the vote of the Popular Alliance, which is made up of AKP and MHP, was 53.66% in 2018, this rate has dropped to 45.9% compared to the polls conducted in the last 3 months.
Özer Sencar, Research Director at Metropoll“The AK Party and Tayyip Erdogan have been especially worn out by their economic and foreign policy. That is, the AK Party’s vote was 42% on June 24. Right now, 30% of the government landing here is the result of policies not adopted by the people, “he said.
“For a transformation in the distribution of votes, the AKP has to show unexpected success in the economy and regain the votes it lost,” Sencar said, “this does not seem possible at this time. Or an unexpected conjuncture occurs … I don’t know what could happen? “Said.
Erdogan is often a leader who manages to unite his followers in the face of a common goal, a threat. Therefore, the economy owes Turkey’s need to maintain policies or point out threats that may occur outside the base was able to many times.
Mehmet Ali Kulat, Chairman of the Board of MAK ConsultingIn stating that the biggest effect of the loss of AKP support is the economy, “for the first time, there was a gray area that said they would not get angry and vote for the AK Party. They used to get angry but they said they would.” . Voters who were angry at the AK Party would not go to the CHP or vice versa. “The Good Party has now shifted to the center-right, getting votes from the AK Party, about 4%. DEVA and the Future Party are also getting it from the AK Party,” he said.
“Another big problem occurred in the sense of justice. Not only justice in the courts, but the perception of justice in general has deteriorated, “Kulat said, noting that” Reasons like this reveal a result of parting the way for some of the government’s citizens. “
Kadir Has University, released in the January 2020 Turkey Trends research survey conducted by the country’s economy last year, emerged as the biggest problem. According to the survey, the rate of those who ranked the cost of living, unemployment and economic problems as the most important problems was 33%, while the coronavirus epidemic was affirmed as the second most important problem with 23, 5%.
The study coordinator, Prof. Mustafa AydinStating that in recent years, the rate of those who say they are in the worst economic situation has gradually increased, “That trend is established. There is a problem in the distribution of income. The rate of those who say ‘I am in a worse economic situation’ reached 51-52%. The rate for those who said they can’t earn a living and worry about my debts reached 50%. This shows that there is serious economic pressure, ”he said.
It grew more than 5% of Turkey’s economy each year between 2010-2015. In some years, growth even exceeded double digits. He also contributed a measure that originated from a vibrant labor market during this period to support the economy’s ability to create jobs that is rapidly increasing the proportion of Turkey’s population. However, since the end of 2017, growth has gradually slowed down. Turkey 3% in 2018, in 2019 there was a growth of 1.8% and 0.9% in 2020. In the same period, the depreciation of TL and the increase in inflation became more evident. These financial imbalances melted both income distribution and purchasing power with rising unemployment. As for all of them, pronounced restrictions have been added since last year, especially in the services sector.
“The main reason for the loss of votes is the economy, but now the AKP’s problem is not just the bad economy.” Kemal Özkiraz, Head of Eurasia ResearchHe said: “There are hundreds of accumulated problems, from holding congresses when restaurants are closed, to decrees, to political trials. Those who started to oppose the problems I mentioned when the economy collapsed became more concerned about the problems I mentioned. So, even if the economy recovers, the AKP will have a hard time recovering. “
Özkiraz stated that Erdogan’s vote has fallen with the AKP and said: “The outgoing votes will go to the parties with the economy and freedom discourse. The two parties where they both meet are the CHP and Deva parties. Therefore , I hope These two parties will rise, and as the only great right-wing alternative, the GOOD party can rise, “he said.
Noting that the AKP intends to be a snap election and tries to keep its organizations in one piece, Özkiraz said that he does not expect an early election.
WITH ITS REDUCED ELECTION SYSTEM, AKP CAN MAKE MORE MPs
Especially the small electoral system can make a big difference. According to officials, when the AKP saw any question marks in the recent general elections, it first brought the practice of reduced electoral districts to the agenda, but never officially presented it to Parliament. Because he thought that he had created an environment in which he could win the election in some way.
On the narrow electoral system, an AKP official said: “It is said to make a very positive contribution to the big parties, but representation is an important step in terms of justice. While the path for independent deputies to win is better open, it will be possible to reflect the votes of the voters more fairly to parliament ”.
According to the official, for example, Istanbul can increase from 3 regions to 30, Ankara from 2 to 6-8, İzmir to 5-6.
“If this system is in place, we can get more deputies,” said the official, and continued as follows:
“If the electoral system had been reduced while the number of deputies increased from 550 to 600, for example, the AK Party would have more than 25 new deputies, for example. Some parties, of course, would be negatively affected by this new system. But it is a healthier system in terms of democracy. “
PREY OF ALLIANCES
AKP officials said they are aware of the loss of votes at the current stage and that they are doing some studies, and that they continue to work on the Elections and Political Parties Law, which has been on the agenda for a long time.
“For parties, there is a general consensus on reducing the threshold to 7 percent only in elections. For parties that enter the alliance, it is emphasized that the total vote will be determined between 10 and 12 percent. In in this case, the formation of new alliances is, of course, an option, “said the AKP. A senior official said:
“The reduced area is still one of the options. However, the number of deputies and electoral districts are important issues. For example, Istanbul should not continue as it is, it is very large and has a large number of deputies.”
Emphasizing that efforts are being made to avoid losses due to other parties and alliances in a possible election, an AKP official emphasized that the Political Parties Law and the Electoral Law are still being worked on, saying: “There may be a 7 or 5 percent choice threshold. You look more closely, “he said.
“The issue of determining a threshold for alliances is also on the agenda. This rate could be 10 percent or more,” said the same official, noting:
“On the other hand, if there is a transfer of deputies, efforts to participate in parliament can be prevented in different ways, such as the failure to establish a group in the TGNA.”
Source: Reuters.
