Seismic research vessel Oruc Reis, one of 5-6 fully equipped and multi-purpose research vessels in the world, is seen as ready for a new seismic research activity in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in Antalya, Turkey on 22 July. 2020.
Orhan Cicek | Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
An intense dispute in the Eastern Mediterranean over rights to oil and gas exploration at sea has seen tensions flare between Turkey and Greece, with one regional expert describing the situation over the years as the “most dangerous”.
Turkey and Greece, both members of NATO, face off on competing claims for energy reserves in disputed eastern Mediterranean waters.
The countries and territories of this region include Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Palestine, Egypt and Libya.
Last week, Turkey sent the warship Oruc Reis, accompanied by warships, to conduct seismic surveys in areas that cover both Ankara and Athens. The ship is set to continue searching for potentially lucrative energy reserves until August 23.
EU member Greece has since pushed Turkey to stop the ‘illegal’ activity, with the standoff itself resulting in a minor clash between two frigates earlier this month. France has also responded to criticism of Turkey’s “worried” provocations.
However, Ankara has said it will not back down from defending its “rights” and has since announced that a separate drilling vessel will search for natural gas in offshore Cyprus waters in the coming weeks.
“However, Turkey will resolutely continue to protect itself and its rights from the Turkish Cypriots in the eastern Mediterranean who depart from international law,” said Hami Aksoy, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. in a statement on Sunday.
“No alliance of evil will succeed in preventing this. Those who think otherwise have not taken their lessons out of history.”
Aksoy’s statement also drew Armenia’s attention for his “striking” remarks about tensions in the eastern Mediterranean, shortly after the country reaffirmed its “unintended support” for Greece and Cyprus.
I would say, the most dangerous situation we have had for many years between the two countries in the region.
Ian Lesser
Vice President at the German Marshall Fund
In response to Turkey’s announcement to increase its search for natural gas, the European Union said it was “unfortunately adding further tensions and insecurity” in the region. The bloc demanded an immediate end to Turkey’s activities in controversial waters and urged Ankara to enter into a broad dialogue.
An emergency summit of European Union ministers last week called on EU High Representative Josep Borrell to warn that the “serious decline” in relations with Turkey affected the entire bloc “far beyond the eastern Mediterranean”.
‘All sides are aware of the risks’
Ian Lesser, vice-president of the German Marshall Fund think tank in Brussels, told CNBC by telephone that Turkey’s “declining conservatism” over the use of force had fueled a more assertive regional policy in recent years.
In addition, Lesser said that “paranoia” had prompted the country’s political establishment to view the behavior of even traditional allies “with a sense of insecurity.”
“Things can go wrong,” he continued, reflecting on the risk of an escalating dispute between Ankara and Athens. “All sides are aware of the risks, but it is clear, I would say, the most dangerous situation we have years ago between the two countries in the region.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu (L) will meet on 06 August 2020 with High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles (R) in Valetta, Malta.
Fatih Aktas | Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Analysts told CNBC that Turkey’s exclusion from the regional development of security and energy alliances around the eastern Mediterranean Ankara felt “increasingly in the box.”
In January 2019, seven energy ministers signed a deal to set up the East Mediterranean Gas Forum. It consists of Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Italy and the Palestinian territories. Turkey was a notable absentee from the group, expected because of what was then described as an “aggressive” gas drilling campaign in the region.
Turkey ‘will not care’ about painful tensions
The US Geological Survey estimated in 2010 that in the Levant Basin province of Eastern Eastern Mediterranean the Mediterranean Sea an average of 1.7 billion tons of recoverable oil and an average of 3.5 trillion cubic meters could be found. The Levant Basin is located largely in Cypriot and Israeli waters in the eastern Mediterranean.
“Turkey will not care about doubling its East-Mediterranean strategy,” Emre Peker, director for Europe at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told CNBC by telephone.
A preview of the drillship ‘Yavuz’ from Turkey operating in the Mediterranean on 07 August 2019.
Celal Gunes | Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
“Turkey is ready to escalate because it can pay to do this with Cyprus, and it can pay to do this with Greece. At the moment, it can also pay to do this with France, because it knows that France does not have the institutional support of the EU as Berlin to take a more hawkish stance, “Peker asserted.
“The reasons for this are twofold: of course the EU is dealing with the Covid crisis and earlier this year we saw an insurgency risk of a migration crisis with (Turkish President Recep Tayyip) Erdogan threatening To relieve 3 million refugees across Europe. “
Peker said the EU had responded effectively to Erdogan’s comments at the time, but it was little more than a “short-term fix.”
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