“The election is a referendum on Trump,” said Kirk Adams, a Republican and former speaker of the Arizona State House of Representatives. “That could change, but until then, Republicans with a negative vote will have to decide whether to travel on the Trump train to their final destination or whether they need to establish some brand independence.”
Jill Cohen, a 52-year-old Tempe resident, Ariz, who was a Republican until 2016, said she would have a hard time supporting a Senate candidate who “aligns” with Trump and his views. “I hope that a leader in our country is someone who is unifying, who is welcoming, who is inclusive and who I can tell my children to admire,” he said. Mr. Trump added, “It’s not one of those things.”
She said she yearned for more consensus-oriented lawmakers and would vote for Mr. Kelly. “I really like Kyrsten Sinema for that reason because she is willing to cross the aisle and work bipartisan,” she said, referring to the other Arizona senator. “And I think Kelly would, too.”
The margin of sampling error in the Times / Siena survey for individual state surveys in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina is approximately four percentage points.
The Times poll of states on the battlefield is not the only recent poll that illustrates how the president’s unpopularity is endangering his party’s candidates. A recent Des Moines Register poll in Iowa, which found Mr. Trump rising just one percentage point in a state that was close to 10 in 2016, showed that Senator Joni Ernst was three points behind Theresa Greenfield, a first-time candidate. time.
Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. A three-seat increase would give Democrats control if Biden wins and his vice president can break a 50-50 tie. But if Alabama’s Doug Jones, a rare Democratic senator in the deep south, loses his reelection in a state that Trump is expected to comfortably lead, Democrats would have to win four seats to take control.
However, with Republicans defending several competitive seats this year, most are clearly within the grasp of Democrats. In addition to Arizona, North Carolina, and Iowa, Republicans have vulnerable headlines in Colorado and Maine, two states that Mr. Biden is the favorite to win.