Trump has stepped up Iran’s fight in the final election tug-of-war

President TrumpDonald John Trump urges Senate not to fill Ginsburg vacancy until elected plant parenthood: ‘Destiny of our right’ Ginsburg replacement is based on progressive group to spend in Supreme Court vacancy advertising campaign More With just weeks to go before the presidential election, Iran and the US have been fighting with allies.

The Trump administration has insisted that all UN sanctions against Iran be re-enacted on Saturday night, and a large majority of the Security Council has vowed to implement them, despite the United States’ denial of sanctions.

The gamble could escalate with Iran in the final stages of the election, and the dangers of focusing on the growing separation of administrations on the world stage – although the election could also mean that countries will remain in a holding pattern until then.

“Graduation or incremental growth by Iran, whether on a nuclear file or regionally, can always be worrisome,” said Ben Behnam, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. “But it is clear that both the US and Iran do not want to be new [escalation] Cycle before the election. “

The European allies of the United States added that if President Trump loses the election, “Washington runs with the desire to keep the JCPOA on force in the hope of a change in Iran policy.”

The Trump administration’s attempt to lift UN sanctions on Iran is an issue that was lifted as part of a 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and several world powers, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPO).

The issue of sanctions is coming to the fore before President Trump prepares to speak virtually at next week’s UN General Assembly, where he is likely to criticize Iran. At last year’s UN meeting, Trump called Iran “bloody greedy.”

Last month, the Secretary of State Mike PompeoMichael (Mike) Richard Pompo’s House panel has stayed the contempt proceedings against Pompeo, as documents condemn China’s outgoing ambassador over the coronavirus: ‘Wuhan may be involved’: Hilicon Valley Trying to interfere | Further sanctions on hackers backed by the Iranian government by the Treasury Department Inviting the process of lifting the sanctions, he said he has set a 30-day clock for the penalty to apply.

The U.N. has called on the United Nations to increase its conventional arms embargo on Iran, which expires in October. Pompeo’s move comes after the Security Council rejected a U.S. resolution. Re-establishing pre-nuclear deal sanctions will extend the arms embargo.

But every member of the 15-member Security Council, with the exception of the Dominican Republic, has denied the U.S. status quo since Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal in 2018.

However, the administration’s denial means nothing and the sanctions will legally take effect again on Saturday at 8 p.m.

“We expect every nation to adhere to the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council – the term, the end,” Pompeo told a news conference this week. “And the United States intends to implement all resolutions of the United Nations Security Council.”

Elliott Abrams, the administration’s special envoy to Iran, also told reporters that sanctions against those violating the arms embargo would be announced this week or Monday.

The alleged proceedings force Trump to sign an official executive order of secondary sanctions on anyone who violates the ceasefire.

While European countries are concerned about the lifting of the arms embargo, they continue to support the nuclear deal and worry that the Trump administration’s actions are driven by a desire to kill the deal. After Pompeo’s announcement last month, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said he would continue to make every effort to ensure the maintenance and full implementation of the JCPOA by all.

Both Russia and China have expressed interest in selling arms to Iran since the arms embargo was lifted in October.

Teleblue said Trump’s executive order would serve as a “preventive message” by outlining when the United States “comes down on companies like a ton of bricks.”

“Someone hopes it will be symbolic because someone hopes the threat is enough to stop them,” he said. “It’s important to see both of these sanctions as a form of deterrence and only if these sanctions fail will the other side react to that behavior.”

Trump’s fiercest critics have accused him of bringing tensions with Iran as part of his election bid.

In addition to snapback sanctions, Trump threatened this week with an “attack on Iran that would be 1,000 times greater than the intensity” if he carried out an alleged plot to assassinate the US ambassador to South Africa in retaliation for the killing of the Iranian general. Qasim Solimani.

After Trump’s tweet, Win Warad deputy director Sara Hagdusti said Trump’s Twitter threat could be seen as a “transparent move to escalate the conflict with Iran in hopes of increasing its electoral potential.

The South African government said on Friday that the intelligence provided to it by the United States was “not enough to support the allegation that there is a credible threat to the United States ambassador to South Africa.”

Peter Harrell, a senior fellow at the Center for New American Security, predicted that Trump’s sanctions would be “mostly a show of force” rather than an executive order because he said the United States has the power to unilaterally approve arms-selling countries. Iran.

Nevertheless, Harley expressed concern that the Trump administration’s move undermines the credibility of the United Nations.

He said, ‘The U.N. No sanctions have always been imposed on the U.S. It is a very valuable tool because it is legally binding on all countries and speaking countries in general feel obliged to implement it. “I hope this is one of a kind that gets fed into history and becomes something for law students to write journal articles on.”

Harrell said he would not expect any immediate arms sales to avoid a pre-election fight with Trump, nor would he expect an immediate defeat of Iran.

“I would bet the Iranians would catch a really provocative act after the US election,” he said. “I think they probably also want to see where this land is.”

The Eurasia Group of Political Risk Consultations also predicted that Iran would respond silently to snapback sanctions, saying Tehran could announce some new nuclear enhancements, but would “probably stop major or tangible measures arousing international outrage.”

“Iranian leaders have enjoyed highlighting Washington’s failure to secure a Security Council buy-in; Supreme Leader Ali Umani and President Hassan Rouhani will probably view the controversial snapback as a shock, not a victory, which will ease domestic pressure, “Eurasia Group analysts wrote in a note to consumers and the media this week. Awaiting the outcome of the presidential election. ”