TAMPA, Fla. – While there is still no well-defined central circulation for potential tropical cyclone # 9, the weather system is likely to become Tropical Storm Isaias later Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
At 5 am, NHC released its last track where Florida remains in the cone of uncertainty. There are still many questions regarding the future track of the weather system, and its intensity. The rapid movement of the disturbance is part of the reason why it has not been better organized.
Nor has it formed a low-level center.
“Honestly, this is just a big mess. That’s the best way to describe it,” explained FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg. “It seems impressive, doesn’t it? But there is no low-level center. So, you have a lot of convection. You have a lot of wind. There are tropical storm force winds there.”
By definition, tropical cyclones have a low-level center, where the bass is closed, he said.
“Right now, [Hurricane Hunters] I can’t find that, as much as they fly within that, “Osterberg explained.
Which, he said, is a good thing.
“If there is no low-level center, this cannot escalate significantly. It cannot escalate rapidly if there is no closed minimum. Now, as it continues to strengthen, it remains very disorganized,” Osterberg said. “That is a big disorganized disorder heading north of the Leeward Islands. Then the Greater Antilles, which are Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. And then, perhaps, northern Cuba.”
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If it produces a low-level hub, at that point, it could be running toward the mountains of Hispaniola and the land.
“And then,” Osterberg added, “if there is any of it left, then, maybe, it goes to South Florida more or less. It may completely fall apart, but what is not going to fall apart is all that rain.”
Either way, it will determine the chances of rain over the weekend.
“What this does is it essentially puts us in a very humid weather pattern, on weekends, very early next week, where we see several inches of rain,” Osterberg said. “With this track, if it works, you’re seeing a lot of rain around here on Sunday, Sunday night and during the day on Monday.”