Tropical cyclone 9 potential runway, spaghetti models

MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issued a Public Notice at 8 pm ET on Tuesday, July 28, 2020, due to the presence of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (formerly Invest 92L) that is likely to form. in tropical storm Isaias before approaching Florida.

Possible projected path of tropical cyclone 9

PTC 9 is located 340 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands and is moving west-northwest at 40 km / h.

NHC forecasters say this general movement with a slight reduction in forward speed should continue for the next few days.

According to the NHC forecast, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday.

Possible Computer Models of Tropical Cyclone 9

Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models generally agree that PTC 9 will track west-northwest near or over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and The Bahamas.

Computer models such as UKMET and HWRF, which represent a stronger cyclone, are located on the north side of the guide envelope, while weaker system solutions remain more towards the equator.

The NHC’s updated forecast is similar to the previous notice and lies a little south of the various consensus aids.

Potential power of tropical cyclone 9

Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time
Tropical Storm Isaias 2020 NOAA NHC Wind Arrival Time

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km / h), with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is expected over the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to turn into a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.

Tropical cyclone potential 9 watches and warnings

A Tropical storm warning is in force for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, US Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Dominica, Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts, Nevis, Guadalupe, Martinique, San Martín, Saba, San Eustaquio, San Martín and the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti.

Interests in other parts of the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

NOAA forecasts an ‘above normal’ Atlantic hurricane season 2020 that runs from June 1 to November 30.