The Portland Trail Blazers have dominated the bubble news cycle with birthday parties and Skinny Melo, but perhaps nothing has sparked more conversation than the possible on-court matchup of Jusuf Nurkic and Hassan Whiteside. Playing in a traditional center is no longer a guarantee, let alone jogging two seven footers that rarely shoot from beyond the short midrange.
However, the comments from players and coaches gave him credit.
Jusuf Nurkić says he hopes to play the power forward for a few minutes, presumably alongside Hassan Whiteside in the center.
– Casey Holdahl (@CHold) July 3, 2020
Stotts says “in all probability” Melo and Nurk will start. He hasn’t decided whether Collins will start at 4. He also hasn’t ruled out starting Nurk and Whiteside together. “Why not? It will give you something to write about.”
– Sean Highkin (@highkin) July 1, 2020
The initial reaction from the fans was polarizing. Two thought processes emerged: the big double alignment is great and the big double alignment is a failure waiting to happen. I entered the writing process for this story believing the latter: Blazers have struggled in the past with below-average shooters splashing the perimeter, imagine what will happen to non-shooters trying to space the floor.
I am now in a slightly more moderate position. I think the matchup could be successful in limited minutes if it provides the right complementary players, specific offensive actions and a different defensive scheme. But that’s a lot to discover in a few weeks of practice and three practice games for players who are unfamiliar with each other.
Offensively, Portland is no stranger to the shooting problems in the forward position that plague Damian Lillard’s pick and roll, especially in playoff scenarios. Last season, Al-Farouq Aminu and Moe Harkless shot 34.3% and 27.5%, respectively, of three. Nurkic, in his entire career, is 3/42 deep, and Whiteside is August 25. We have no handles.
Stopping a super effective Lillard from scoring on the edge is a better defense than staying with any of those four guys on the perimeter. In essence, the Blazers cannot stick one Whiteside or Nurkic in the corner or on the wing and let the other play normally.
There are a couple of alternatives that keep both centers within the arc and do not allow their defenders to play safely. One: use Nurkic as the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors used Draymond Green.
In this role, Nurkic is Lillard’s screen pioneer, as in Portland’s usual offense. But instead of having three fencers on the perimeter waiting for a kickoff, there will only be two and Whiteside will set up camp at the dunker’s place. If Lillard can’t create his own space, probably because the defenders hid the screen, he may find Nurkic rolling slowly. Nurkic takes one or two boats to the free throw line and gives the opposing center a decision: Get out there and stop your momentum, awarding the balloon to Whiteside, or stay at Whiteside and let Nurkic slide down the lane for a slam dunk.
Nurkic’s passing and decision-making abilities are not on par with Green’s, which is not a hit at all. But they are better than Whiteside’s. In contrast, Whiteside’s verticality is almost unmatched, making it the perfect target for alleyways. It may not have the Golden State offensive aesthetic, but it could work.
Two: use Whiteside in the pick and roll and place Nurkic on the strong side block. If the defenders attack Lillard, he can find Nurkic at the post as a ransom. Whiteside continues his role and gives the weak side wing a choice: stand in front of Whiteside and sacrifice the jump pass to the corner shooter or stay in the corner and let Nurkic find Whiteside on the roster for an uncontested finish on the edge.
If the defense changes or doesn’t attack Lillard in any of these scenarios, he’ll have his routine pick and roll setup, but with less space. That pressures her to make decisions and to take fouls.
In either case, Nurkic and Whiteside must be active screeners both on and off the ball. They don’t attract defenders without the ball and they certainly can’t space the floor, so they must free up their top-scoring teammates with screens and constant movement.
Even though both centers are elite tire protectors, the pairing causes problems for Portland’s defense.
In the half court, opponents exploit the pick and roll with Whiteside or Nurkic defending because the Blazers sink. The Milwaukee Bucks have been successful in doing it with one Lopez brother at a time, but that’s because their guard defenders have the defensive acumen and the breadth to get over the screens and still race behind.
However, Whiteside hinted that the Portland defense would apply more ball pressure. In both great alignments, one can press the ball knowing that the other is behind him to defend the rim, but that leaves a shooter open for an ejection pass. Two steps forward, two steps back.
Away from the pick and roll sets, Portland perimeter defenders, now a shorter rotation with Trevor Ariza not playing, may try to knock opponents off the three-point line. In theory, doing so channels them towards Whiteside and Nurkic in the paint and encourages the shooter to stop for a mid-range bridge.
The Blazers did not exhibit effective communication or the ability to fight and find the open man this year. If they want to kick the boys off the goal, that will lead more to a defensive fight. Nurkic and Whiteside hesitate to hit the perimeter, so the initial hustle to avoid a triple points to another three-point attempt, possibly even better.
The teams will also try to run in transition when they secure a rebound. The big ones are generally slower to fall to the ground and tend to fall back into the paint to stop an attempt to drive against the disorganized defense. But if they both do that, the opposing power forward can follow the ball controller and is free to set up one screen or spot three.
There will be a lot of bubble alignment experimentation with Ariza out and Zach Collins and Nurkic healthy. Even after trying to persuade myself that the big double line could be one of those experiments, it still has to go too well for it to work. The teams already attack the traditional centers when only one is on the court; I can’t see the situation improving by putting another one there.
Alone, Nurkic and Whiteside successfully defend the paint and dissuade opponents from shooting to the edge. The optimal lineup for them contains four perimeter defenders. Offensively, the standard pick and roll works best with a large body setting up the screen and four handles spacing the floor.
Birthday parties and Skinny Melo are in the Disney World bubble, but the big double lineup should be out.
