Well, after a lovely and easy week at the Memorial just a couple of days ago at the Workday Charity Open, the Memorial has brought us some great butchery.
Pick the golfers who fought, and I mean fought. There are bad holes in each round – you will see some triples, maybe a quad here or there. But there were multiple QUINTS; Bryson DeChambeau was one of them, melting golf on Twitter for a couple of minutes.
Entering the weekend, Ryan Palmer and Tony Finau share the lead in 9-under, and Jon Rahm It’s the giant looming just behind them at 8pm. Let’s do a reboot and find out how to tackle Saturday and Sunday.
But first, a quick explanation on the Strokes Gained data and what it means for the golf handicapper.
(Click here to jump to the analysis section).
Strokes gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf punters, DFS players and fans more details on how a golfer is really playing measuring each shot relative to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it has, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average a player takes to get the ball into the hole from every distance and situation. If a player exceeds those averages, he is taking hits on the field.
Every situation in golf is different: Strokes Gained measures how players handle them relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll play a variety of Strokes Gained metrics …
- Blows Won: Outside the Shirt
- Blows Won: Focus
- Blows won: around the green
- Blows won: put
- Shots Won: Hitting the ball (which is off the tee + focus)
- Blows Won: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, ball shots and tee-to-green are more stable in the long term, and you can often find live betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well but are not getting putts. fall, which is more random. Similarly, players with high SG: putting numbers may go back in the future.
Read more about Strokes Gained here.
3 golfers to buy in round 3
Rahm was my absolute choice to win before the tournament, so I’m not going to back down now, especially given how solid he has looked the past two days. His irons have been on point; It has always looked good with the putter, which is easier said than done this course this week.
He’s actually been fairly neutral on the greens, but this guy is just as incredibly talented when he has scored, as he appears to be right now. His “A” game is there with Rory and JT all over the world, so if you’re looking for a man who can put things away this weekend, Rahm is the man.
[Bet Jon Rahm at +325 with DraftKings’ 30% Odds Boost!]
Gary Woodland he does not think about the upper level of the boys, and has had problems with his short game throughout his career. But his talent for hitting the ball is also among the best in the game, and he was outstanding on Friday, winning nearly five shots on the field with his focus.
Overall, he’s leading the entire field after two days in Strokes Gained: Approach, and if he can stay steady on the greens and maybe see some positive regression off the tee, he should be there with Rahm to win this thing. (For what it’s worth, Tiger Woods is second in the week in SG: Focus, but he really struggled differently on Friday.)
[Bet Gary Woodland at +1300 using DraftKings’ 30% Odds Boost]
And finally, I’m hardly ever in Jordan Spieth, but the numbers are interesting this week. Spieth’s game is pretty easy to understand: he’s not that long, he can hit a hot ball and does most of his damage with his putter, which when he’s among the best in the game.
His problem in recent years is that the placement has receded a bit, but he’s been so poor with his irons that it hasn’t even really mattered. This week, however, he has gained more shots on the field with his approach game, which is a positive step.
He is currently sitting five from Palmer and Finau, which is not insurmountable given the implosions we’ve seen so far, and if he can keep attacking the greens and this turns into a putt match, it’s hard to fade Spieth away.
3 golfers fade in round 3
Jason Day He’s a tough guy to hurt: The former world No. 1 has had such a severe fall due to injury problems that keep popping up.
It is similar to Spieth in that he can win a lot of punches with his putter when he is right with his irons. And it’s a little more distance than Spieth, making it formerly number one in the world. You have the total package when you are healthy.
But I’m skeptical about buying it right now, mainly because it’s only doing it for the putter, even though it’s not really taking hits with its focus. In fact, it’s been essentially neutral for two days anywhere else, but it comes first in Strokes Gained: Putting. Could it continue like this? Of course. Am I willing to bet on that? I am not.
Second and third place in the week in SG: Putting are Mackenzie Hughes and Viktor HovlandWho are my other blackouts for tomorrow? Again, those guys can be good players, but so far it’s the rest of their games that worries me.
Hughes has actually been pretty poor with his second and third shots this week, missing a complete hit on his focus. He really had to turn things on the green to sit 4-under, and if the rest of his game doesn’t improve, I don’t expect him to stay in the top 10.
Hovland is more interesting because, man, this young man is talented (I feel very old writing that sentence). He has perhaps been the most impressive golfer since COVID-19’s comeback, but he just hasn’t gotten the buzz from the mainstream because other guys like Collin Morikawa have held up trophies, while racking up multiple top 5s.
This week, he has been neutral enough to hit the ball, but has stayed on his own. I wonder if last month’s routine will finally catch up with him. He could be very wrong: He shot below 6 today to enter the top 10 and it seems he can compete again. However, based on your two-day data, I’d lean toward the guys who are hitting their irons better.
All right, enough conversation. Here is the data for all players on Thursday.
Data hits obtained for each player in round 2
(Note: The following graph is interactive. Click / hover mouse to view data.)
