College football’s greatest ally during the coronavirus pandemic had been time. COVID-19 hit in the offseason.
Spring practice was affected, of course, but there were still five months to go before the start of the season. A long time, they said, to discover the evidence. Similarly, plenty of time for players to return to campus and consider what a 2020 season would look like.
Game stakeholders had time to figure it all out outside. That is no longer the case.
Hour? College football is running out of it, at least if he plans to start the 2020 season on schedule.
We are 53 days out of week 0. August 29 is in 7 ½ weeks. The required summer training could begin for some teams as early as this week. For those starting the Labor Day weekend in traditional Week 1, preseason camp begins in less than a month, around August 7.
Suddenly, time has gone from being an ally to an unlocked blitzing linebacker.
July is likely the month we will know if there will be any kind of season this fall. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey recently said it is “probably a late July period” to make a decision.
- COVID-19 cases have increased in at least 36 states. It is not surprising that there is still a lack of consensus to voluntarily adopt the use of masks throughout the country.
- At least six FBS shows, including last season’s championship finalists (LSU, Clemson), have closed training due to positive outbreaks. Meanwhile, there is still no uniform testing protocol. Perhaps more concerning: Nearly half of FBS’s 130 schools are not revealing positive test numbers.
- Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott said Friday that the 2020 season “is much more dangerous than it was a few weeks ago” if the coronavirus doesn’t slow down.
- The Ivy League will announce its fall sports plan on Wednesday. Forbes magazine reported that there is a 98% chance that soccer will move to spring.
- Division II Morehouse College has canceled its season. At least three Division III schools have done the same.
- Four games with Historically Black College Programs (HBCU) have been canceled.
- The FCS Patriot League is making “rare exceptions” for overnight road trips. That could affect multiple games without a conference for the FBS teams.
- In fact, two games involving FBS shows: Navy vs. Lafayette on September 12 and Western Michigan vs. Colgate on September 4, they have already been canceled. (Since then, WMU has found Stony Brook as a replacement.)
You see where this is trending. Time is suddenly the enemy.
Spring football in 2021 is becoming more likely, but even that has its problems.
The NFL is reportedly not interested in accommodating college football by delaying its 2021 draft if the season is to be delayed by a few months. That could mean that certain draft-eligible seniors and juniors don’t end up playing a final year of college dance, which would clearly affect the race for the national championship.
“I hope we can play in the fall,” Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley said Friday. “… But we have seen that warm weather does not affect [COVID-19] much. We have heard reports from some medical leaders in our nation. There is a possibility of a vaccine by the end of this year or the beginning of next.
“For me, it becomes, do you think [spring football is] realizable? I personally do it. “
Penn State athletic director Sandy Barbour last week called the spring season “a last resort.” That was always the case. College football does not lend itself to being a mobile party on the calendar.
Texas at LSU during the carnival? “College GameDay” in the snow? Spring soccer during what should be spring practice?
Without that last resort, college athletics enters a kind of nuclear winter. Without soccer income, certain schools would give up even more sports and perhaps stop playing soccer entirely.
Soccer provides 80% of the revenue for the average FBS budget. Given the growing and serious university budget crisis already at stake, perhaps the schools themselves will withdraw.
Iowa State AD Jamie Pollard called the possibility of no soccer as “an ice age. I don’t know how any of us, how the current NCAA model, could survive if we are not playing any soccer game “
So we will probably know soon whether to buy parkas. The fact that the NBA, MLB, and NHL can somehow be released before the end of the month will be a key indicator.
By then, college football will be able to determine how professionals manage to play real games amid the coronavirus. By then, the sport will need to decide whether it is safe for players to practice while exchanging sweat and making physical contact.
Basically the antithesis of avoiding COVID-19.
If that can’t happen, the season won’t start on time, if it does.
“At some point, we will have to go out and play soccer,” Riley said. “If you can’t contain [the coronavirus] within your own team, it will be difficult to justify going and playing against someone else. “
We’ve said it before: Riley has been a sage in these tough times. You have thought deeply about a spring season.
“I think people who say it’s not feasible, in my opinion, just don’t want to think about it,” said Riley. “I think it would be wrong of us to remove any potential option from the table. Spring is very doable.”
Sankey said there are “18-20” scenarios to squeeze in the season. College leaders are willing to play without fans, perhaps without students on campus.
A late start is possible. As is the football of two semesters. Could we see the Rose Bowl on Memorial Day?
We already know that the 10 FBS conferences are ready to move forward without universal participation. Within those conferences, all teams may not play or some may be forced to play limited hours.
Unlike professionals, college players cannot negotiate their working conditions. They are not compensated. It is worth asking: what exactly does this desperation to play have that is linked to education?
The road ahead is full of curves. The desperation of athletic commissioners and directors to get a share of the revenue from television rights is obvious. That is a great reason why they are willing to play in the spring.
It is not just the pandemic. They will have to do so amid a continuing awakening of social justice, record unemployment and a declining economy.
All this must be taken into account when restarting football. Players also want to play, but with new leverage. Players from the state of Oklahoma to Illinois have shown that they will have a voice in the awkward attempt to extract some of that television revenue.
“How can a team full of more than 100 student athletes function fully during a pandemic,” Illinois linebacker Milo Eifler tweeted. “My teammates and I want to play. But schools across the country show evident disregard for student athletes.”
Players cannot be perceived as human shields or mercenaries to obtain that money.
“We are not just throwing them and waiting,” said Riley.
Combine that thinking with a big concern from college healthcare professionals: Players will really hide the symptoms of COVID-19 to stay on the field.
Stars like Trevor Lawrence are unlikely to play even in the spring. For the projected No. 1 overall pick, there wouldn’t be much choice between risking a season-ending or career injury versus a $ 40 million paycheck, particularly if the 2021 NFL Draft occurs during a spring season in instead of after that.
Then came the awkward television renegotiations. Rights holders didn’t pay the best dollar, so college football would go head-to-head with major professional sports in the spring.
Fall Saturdays are designed for college football, not the Easter weekend.
There is another student-athlete wellness problem. How strange it would be, two years after celebrating the 150th anniversary of college football, for stakeholders to fit two seasons into the 152nd season of college football in 2021.
Obstacles continue to accumulate. Stakeholders seem willing to face them one at a time.
There is hope The tests will be more frequent. There is optimism The outbreaks can be contained with thousands upon thousands of students returning to campus next month.
There he is belief a spring season will always be there as a last resort.
Next Sunday marks four months since the sports world closed. When it will fully open again is a mystery.
There is a certainty: college football is running out of time.
