The NBA seed games reached a pivotal point on Thursday with four teams – Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs – all thinking about either No. 8 seed or for the final play-in spot from West.
Tonight’s games could be the deciding factor in what turned out to be a very entertaining postseason pressure in the bubble (here’s a link to how each potential scenario would play out).
Where is the value? Our staff is here to break their favorite NBA bets for today’s lead time and has found corners in these games:
- 4 pm ET: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- 4 pm ET: Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
- 9 pm ET: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Thursday chooses NBA Bets
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| Bucks odds | +3.5 [BET NOW] |
| Grizzlies odds | -3.5 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | + 130 / -155 [BET NOW] |
| Over / Under | 227.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 8 pm ET |
| TV | NBA League Pass |
I personally like teams fading into must-win games because I believe the market rarely makes them well priced. At these spots, I like to wait for the public money to get the best price I can on the opposing team. My logic has always been that when a team finds itself in a must-win game, they are not very good. Typically this means that there is value on the OTHER side.
Oddsmakers opened this line at Bucks -5 and it has since been waiting for Bucks +1. With a Bucks team and Antetokounmpo with full force in the lineup, this line would be double digits. Giannis is certainly worth a maximum of five points for the spread, but at some point, you have to ask, what is a fair adjustment on this particular game?
The Bucks may have nothing to play for, but I still believe they are the better team. At the current line of +1.5, it is Bucks as a pass; There is no value for -1.5 with a wrestling Grizzlies team in place for must. If you’re looking for a solid contrarian play today, the Bucks are your answer.
The PICK: Milwaukee Bucks ML (+123)
[Bet $20+ on the Bucks at PointsBet and Win $125 if they make at least one 3-pointer]
| Mavericks odds | +9.5 [BET NOW] |
| Suns odds | -9.5 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | + 360 / -455 [BET NOW] |
| Over / Under | 235 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 4 pm ET |
| TV | TNT |
We made it … almost. Two weeks of basketball days of 10 hours later, we are in the home stretch with our first NBA play-in game in sight.
The Phoenix Suns play the best basketball from one of West No. 8 seed runners-up. Heck, they’re currently playing each team’s best basketball in the bubble, which is kind of obvious considering they can complete the seeding games as the only unbeaten team.
The Dallas Mavericks have zero to play here, and I expect them to rest or limit most of their key players. I’m very happy to doubt the Suns if they fell behind, and still believe they will get the job done late.
The Suns need to win this game to keep their hopes alive in the playoffs, and the Portland Trail Blazers are not playing until late, so there is no chance of them being eliminated before they tip off. The Suns will find a way, and considering they already have four bubble wins with 13 or more points already, I think they will easily win against a Mavs team with interests elsewhere.
If you can find it, my favorite bet of the day on Phoenix is winning the playoffs and making the West playoffs. The Suns are the better team right now, and if the Blazers are completely strangled, this thing could go the Suns’ job. I give them about a 21% chance of making the actual playoffs. They are still a long shot now, but not as long as it seems. If you can find it, play it.
Everyone jumped on the Suns this morning, so the line is not offering much value at the moment, but I would play it again if it drops to -8.5 or below. But you can better hope for another slow start and live betting Phoenix in a dick. They will definitely do their part.
The Pick: Bet the Suns Live
[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
Matt Moore: Trail Blazers vs. Nets
| Trail Blazers odds | -9.5 [BET NOW] |
| Nets odds | +9.5 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | -455 / + 360 [BET NOW] |
| Over / Under | 236.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 9 pm ET |
| TV | TNT |
The Trail Blazers have every motivation in the world, the Brooklyn Nets do not. But the Nets took Joe Harris and Jarrett Allen off the injury report yesterday.
They may not play the whole game. But here’s the thing: the Nets have the seventh-best position eFG% in the bubble, and the eighth-best actual eFG%. What this means is that they take the eighth most efficient shots, and they allow the third-least efficient. They cover the 3-point line very well.
The Blazers, meanwhile, are a defensive disaster. They allow the seventh most efficient shots and the second-best effective field goal percentage.
What I’m trying to tell you is that the Nets are likely to keep this closer than you think. But I worry that the Blazers are just going forward with offense this close to making a playoff spot. If the Blazers win, they’re in.
That I trust the Blazers defense to suck through, and the Nets’ offense, regardless of who plays, to make good shots. I also have a soft lean to the Nets +10 and down to +9.
The Pick: Nets team totals more than 113 (bet up to 114.5)
[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]
