When a team goes down 3-0 in the best-of-seven playoff series in the MLB, their season is expected to end soon. That’s a well-thought-out assumption, as the only team – the Red Sox in the ALCS against the Yankees in 2004 – to make up for such a loss.
It brings us to the 2020 Astros and their efforts to leave the rays behind in the ALCS. The rays are a bit useless for good luck with sparkling defense, timely hits, and a 0-0 lead over Houston. The Strauss, however, will win by one run in Game 4 and 5, and we are now considering whether they will become the second team in MLB history to make such a miracle.
As for Game 6 – Houston yet another bend – Looms, Let’s put what the Astros are trying to accomplish and accomplish already in perspective. Here are three things to think about as Dusty Baker’s squadron tries to survive another day and pushes Game 7.
1. We may be paid for a 0-0 return
M.L.B. In, a total of 38 best-of-seven postseason series began 3-0 – from the 1907 World Series between the Cubs and Tigers to the current series of notes between Tampa Bay and Houston. As mentioned above, it was again reduced to 3-0 by only one team from the series. Second-ranked, teams will go down 0-3 to win the series in just 2.6 percent of the series in question.
If you assume that the two teams that meet in the postseason match in the same way – not an unreasonable assumption – and use the coin-flip method to determine the probability of a team winning four straight. That time should be 6.25 percent. However, we will lower our expectations a bit. A team leading 0-0 in the postseason series is considered to be a better team than most measurement standards. Also, there could be a combination of psychological “penalties” that come down to 3-0 and face such long hurdles that make it more difficult to come back.
Speaking of which, the team with the best record in the regular season wins just over 54 percent of the time in the postseason series. Since the home field doesn’t have much of an advantage in the 2020 playoffs, let’s make it 54 percent. So if we give the Astros a 46 percent chance of winning every game accordingly, that gives them a 4.5 percent chance of winning four straight. The odds are still long, with 4.5 percent significantly higher than 2.6 percent. This is another way of saying that we should have seen more than a 0-3 comeback in his 38 attempts. This is especially true in games like Bezab Like L, which have a lot of built-in compression and randomness. To be sure, this is a small factor, but perhaps Houston’s obstacles weren’t as long as their feeling.
2. Astros is already in rare company
Here’s how the following 0-3 teams did well for the rest of the series:
- Of 38, 30 or .978..9 percent, swept.
- The other five teams lost 4-1.
- Only three teams – the Brave in the 1998 NLCS, the 1999 Mets in the NLCS and the 2004 Red Sox in the ALCS – lasted at least six games.
- Only the 2004 Red Sox forced a seventh game, which they definitely won.
The 2020 Astros have now become the fourth team of 39 to push the game. In teams going below 0, they are already running (less than acceptable) among the gods.
3. The Astros are no longer below 3-0
At the risk of a clear and pedantic sound, let’s note that the Astros are no longer tasked with returning to 0-3 on the most immediate basis of the sensation. After Game 3, they needed to win four straight over AL’s best team in the regular season. As of this writing, however, they now need to win two straight over AL’s best team, which they have already done. This isn’t exactly the “wrong place to gamble,” in which previous results have no effect on future results, but there is a definite truth to this way of thinking about things. That can be found in a certain number of truths: the teams in the Best-Seven F-Seven series are 3-2 down and have won 30.5 percent of that series time. Yes, the Astros will still lose ALCS for the Rays, but there are 30.5 percent better chances compared to those after Game 3 and 4.
So will the Astros pull it off? Probably not, but it’s “probably” that it’s a lot less stressful than it was just 48 hours ago.
