Six companies are currently evaluating COVID-19 vaccine candidates in late-stage testing. Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is not one of them.
J&J was one of the first to deploy resources for a major effort to combat COVID-19. It soon established a partnership with the US government to develop a new vaccine for coronavirus. It is the largest healthcare company in the world, with massive resources. And yet Johnson & Johnson lagged well behind multiple rivals, both large and small.
However, do not forget the opportunities of J & J. The healthcare giant’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate could have an ace in the hole that could just make it the biggest winner of all.
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One and done
Johnson & Johnson announced the publication of results from a preclinical study of their major vaccine candidate, Ad26.COV2-S, on July 30th. You might not think that preclinical results would be a big deal. After all, several of J & J’s rivals in the race to develop COVID-19 vaccines have already announced results from early – stage clinical trials in humans.
The company reported that its experimental vaccine induced a robust immune response in nonhuman primates. In particular, vaccination with Ad26.COV2-S resulted in the production of high levels of neutralizing antibodies, which have the potential to prevent infection by the coronavirus. J&J notes that its vaccine candidate “provided complete or near complete protection in the lungs against the virus” in the animals in the preclinical study.
That was all great news. But what really set these preclinical results apart was that the impressive immune response was obtained with only a single dose of Ad26.COV2-S. Other COVID-19 vaccine candidates who are advanced in clinical trials require two doses.
There are a few important reasons why a “one-and-done” vaccine is preferred for vaccines that require multiple doses. First, a single-dose vaccine is cheaper. Second, people would be more likely to receive a single dose of vaccine than they would be to receive both doses of a vaccine that requires two.
However, it is still early days. J&J is evaluating both single- and two-dose regimens of Ad26.COV2-S in its Phase 1/2a clinical trials. The company also has plans to include both dosing regimens in its planned Phase 3 study. There is a possibility that testing J&J could lead with the two-dose approach. However, if single-dose vaccination works as well in humans as it did in nonhuman primates, Johnson & Johnson could easily evolve from laggard to leader in the COVID-19 vaccine space.
Playing the long game
Johnson & Johnson is likely to remain somewhat of an underdog in the race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. Even though the company expects to launch a September study of Ad26.COV2-S, it is still well behind several other drug manufacturers. You may also be surprised that J&J has only won significant regulatory approval for one vaccine – ever. And that approval came last month, with European approval from the company Ebola vaccine.
But J&J seems to be playing the long game pretty well with their COVID-19 fax development. It took more time in advance to identify a candidate who could potentially be administered with only one dose. The company also pays much less for its vaccine than its top rivals are. Last week, J&J landed a deal with the U.S. government to supply 100 million doses of Ad26.COV2-S for about $ 1 billion. By comparison, Pfizer en BioNTech deliver 100 million doses to the US for $ 1.95 billion.
Lower prices with less required doses may not seem like a smart strategy. Couldn’t J&J make much more money by selling a two-dozen fax regimen at a price more competitive with its competitors? Wis. The level of care can even go up more years to date if it took this approach.
However, a single dose vaccine would be far more attractive to governments around the world. And J&J is likely to sell it at cost while the pandemic continues. After the pandemic ends, expect the company to increase its price.
Do you remember Aesop’s fable about the tortoise and the hair? It looks like Johnson & Johnson could be the turtle in the race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. The turtle might win the race in the real world – just like in the fable.
