Another week, another illness to annoy a Yankees outfielder. This time, Aaron Judge sat outside summer camp for a few days with a stiff neck before making any changes to batting practice yesterday. Just as he appeared to have left behind his broken rib and collapsed lung problems, this latter issue arose to further limit his preparation for the season.
At first glance, it appears the Yankees’ outfield is crowded and that replacing Judge while overcoming this newer ailment can be handled internally. That’s true, however, the Yankees proved last year that you can never have too much depth in the outfield. All the outfielders on the Yankees’ depth chart missed at least some time last year, including the long-term absences from the opening trio of Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks and Judge.
For significant parts of last season, it was just the surprising emergencies of Mike Tauchman and Cameron Maybin, and the rebirth of Brett Gardner, that kept the Yankees on track. They could look at guys like Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar, and Tyler Wade to plug the holes as they appear, however, none of the three offers competition on either side of the ball. Alternatively, the Yankees could turn to the commercial market, where a former revelation star finds himself without a role.
Aristides Aquino burst onto the scene in an unmatched way, save for Gary Sánchez’s scorching second half debut in 2016. For a month, he set fire to the National League Central with his titanic display of power. He set the record for the fastest player in modern history to hit 10 home runs (16 games). He sported a 1,158 OPS and 185 wRC + in August, including setting the National League rookie record for home runs in a month with 14.
And as fast as home runs flew out of his bat in August, the streak stopped in September. Aquino only managed an OPS of .619 that month, while also seeing his strikeout rate go up by more than eight percentage points. This drop continued in the first spring training, where he hit .077 with 11 strikeouts in 30 plate appearances.
This prolonged cold snap seems to have temporarily derailed a career that had such a promising start. Aquino sits seventh on the garden depth chart after the Reds brought in Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama in the offseason. He was not even invited to train with the group that practiced at the Great American Ball Park, although he was included in the group of 60 players. So was the big right just a flash of a month in the pan? And why would the Yankees be interested in him?
The answer is its prodigious ability to impact baseball, when it’s on. Last year, he had the third-most hit baseball in the entire MLB at 118.3 MPH, ahead of players like Pete Alonso, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. Obviously he has the ability to rip the cover off a baseball, the Yankees only need to find a way to get it done for more than a month at a time.
The Yankees have had unusual success with players hitting the ball hard, but they don’t do it consistently enough. His batting department has done wonders for men who have a profile very similar to Aquino. Players like Luke Voit and Gio Urshela ranked consistently near the top of the teams’ top-speed ranking before reaching the Yankees, but lagged behind in average exit speed.
After moving to the Bronx, Voit saw his average muzzle velocity increase by nearly two mph in his first striped season, while Urshela’s median muzzle velocity jumped by nearly five mph. The Yankees found a way to unlock these hitters’ A-hits more frequently, and improved the quality of contact when exiting these hits. The potential is already at Aquino’s bat, and the Yankees’ hitting department is the perfect place to take advantage of it.
Offensively, Aquino promises much more to the upside than all but one or two current depth pieces. Defensively, Aquino is a far superior option in the outfield than Clint Frazier or Miguel Andujar. Aquino ranked at the 89th percentile in sprint speed last season. He was also good for four above-average outs according to Statcast, while he ranked 14th in the league for making two-star or tougher plays (plays with a 90% or less catch probability), impressive given that he only played a third of the season.
The Yankees can also take advantage of the fact that their value is in the hold. He’s at the bottom of the Reds’ hierarchical order, even with Cincinnati repeatedly buying from top prospect Nick Senzel in the commercial market in the offseason. Aquino comes with the always attractive years of team control, but the Reds’ farm is partially depleted after the acquisition of Trevor Bauer. Now may be the time for the Yankees to buy low.
It’s hard to see a trade like this take shape, especially if potential costs start to rise. The Yankees are stuck in the outfield, and the quarantine allowed plenty of time to heal. With that said, the Yankees have shown us that we will never become complacent with the depth of the grounds. Given the success the Yankees have had in developing players of their class, Aristides Aquino could be an intriguing purchase. For my part, I would love to see Garymania 2.0 in stripes.