The bad news of this weekend was our piece by piece distributed. First, Giancarlo Stanton was removed from the second game of a doubleheader with the Rays, without explanation. We then heard that he had suffered a hamstring injury, and yesterday it became official that Stanton was on his way to the IL.
As far as production on the field is concerned, this injury could not come at a lesser time. Stanton was in the middle of his best start after a season as the Yankee, running a .293 / .453 / .585 dash with a 190 wRC +. Despite a brief streak of a few games, he looked quite as comfortable as he has ever worn in a Yankees uniform.
Stanton’s injury robbed us of a chance to see a great player in great shape, and stripped Stanton himself of a chance to make this stunted regular season his best yet in pinstripes. That does not matter. It’s sad when the sport loses one of its brightest talents.
With that in mind, however, the Yankees’ goal regarding Stanton is very clear from here on out: get the slugger healthy and ready to produce by October. As much fun as it has been to see Stanton lace beautiful home runs in the stands in the regular season, the top priority should be to keep him prepared for the games that matter.
As I wrote a few weeks ago, that’s the awkward dynamic of this short season. While the 2020 campaign is paid off as an exciting sprint to the finish, it is actually mostly a meaningless walk for the Yankees. The moment the league instituted a playoff format with 16 teams, juggernauts like New York got an almost guaranteed pass after the playoffs, leaving their regular season match business with low stakes.
FanGraphs already rates the Yankees’ playoff odds at 98 percent, as they have opened up a small lead over the Rays. Baseball Prospecuts have not updated their playoff odds since the season began, but there is reason why PECOTA will likely see the Yankees even safer to qualify in October. PECOTA gave the Yankees 98 percent odds of making the playoffs before the season even began. Those odds probably only went up because the Yankees played well to start the season and established a two-game advantage in the AL East.
The season has just begun, and the Yankees’ playoff chances are already tending to 100 percent. While they probably won’t claim everything soon, it will take a straightforward disaster to beat them to ninth place in the American League. Combine that with the fact that higher seeding in the 16-team tournament is only significant without fans in the stands, and each of the Yankees’ 44 remaining games is left that has minimal effect on the actual championship race.
If the ultimate goal of the team is to win the World Series, then keeping the band together and healthy is all it can do to maximize its chances. They seem to know what to do with the Yankees’ efforts to do everything they can to keep their plays comfortable and safe from the coronavirus. As twisted as it is, the goal of the 60-game season is to survive.
In that regard, the Yankees cannot afford to mess with Stanton’s hamstring. Such an injury is noticeably doubtful, prompting athletes to think they are good to go back, only to cheer up again. I know from personal experience as a sprinter; you may feel ready to run after weeks of rest, just explode out of the blocks and put yourself on the couch for another month when the hamstring tells you it was not quite ready yet.
Which route gives Stanton the best chance of reaching October in one piece is the one the Yankees should take. Caution should be the overriding theme. There’s no point in running him back for a regular season that means next to nothing, especially with capable players like Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford, and maybe Clint Frazier who are ready to go in and pick up at-bats. nobody.
The Yankees’ training staff certainly has more information than we do, and with any luck, they can come up with a plan that aims to get Stanton back for the games that matter. Maybe the team will continue with an abundance of caution, only to see the star outfielder actually progress faster than expected, ready to plug in to the DH spot again within a few weeks.
That is just the hope, and the expectation should be that Stanton will miss important time. But just like the first delay of the season, the low stakes of the season give Stanton time to heal. If Stanton pays back a few important things and stumbles when the leaves have changed color, the threads and tribulations that precede October will surely be forgotten.
