BENGALURU (Reuters) – The outlook for the U.S. economy has dwindled in the run-up to the presidential election, according to a Reuters poll, with the recent resurgence in the novel coronavirus case posing a high risk of hindering economic recovery.
New coronavirus infections have recently touched record levels in the United States, and the number of Americans admitted to hospital with COVID-19 has reached a two-month high, leading to further sanctions. In Europe, many countries have also improved measures to prevent the spread of the disease.
The fast-growing case count and uncertainty over the financial relief bill are expected to hit the U.S. in a month. Leading the sell-off in the stock market, the benchmark S&P 500 index on Monday hit its biggest daily decline in four weeks, the U.S. Squeezing the Treasury yield curve.
About two-thirds of the 58 economists who answered an additional question in the Oct. 16-26 poll said the U.S. was involved in the coronavirus case. No. The economic boom can be stopped, with five people saying it’s too much.
Rabobank’s U.S. “The pace of recovery is already slowing as homes and businesses are struggling with the effects of the downturn and the virus,” said Philip Mere, a senior strategist. “Meanwhile, the expansion of financial stimulus is yet to come, it is too late and moderate.”
Reuters poll: US economic outlook –
3 Nov. U.S. The hurdle on the second fiscal year stimulus bill could be quickly met if the results of the presidential election are made available immediately.
Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Securities, noted that the election result would indicate a path to potential additional stimulus.
“A clear victory could spur negotiations. The political climate in a contested election situation poses a challenge for additional stimulus. ”
With the victory of the party’s presidential candidate Joe Biden in the Senate’s democratic control, the near-term economic recovery was predicted, according to about 75% of the 59 analysts who answered the additional question.
James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist, said: “Opinion polls indicate the growing potential for a clean sweep of Democrats, which could pave the way for broader financial stimulus in early 2021, including revenue support and front-loaded energy projects. “James Knightley said.
Reuters Poll: Which US election result will lead to a near-term economic recovery?
But one of the biggest economic worries from the epidemic is high unemployment. Respond 0% or 49 respondents 1 respondents said that the U.S. Unemployment rates will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2023, with two defendants saying they will never.
Extensive polls showed an average unemployment rate of 8. %% this year, 8.8% ahead and .5.5% in 203. It was 3.5. %% earlier this year before the outbreak.
The economy contracted at an annual pace of 31.4% in the second quarter, its sharpest decline in at least 73 years. Growth is forecast at 4% this quarter after an expected record rebound of 31% in the previous quarter.
But now growth is forecast to slow further in each quarter of next year, and much higher than last month’s forecast.
For this year, the world’s largest economy is forecast to decline by 4%, according to 120 economists.
The consensus for 2021 and 2022 was for 3.7% and 2.9% growth, respectively.
About two-thirds of respondents, or 1 of 3, said their predictions were based on a second round of financial stimulus.
Among economists expecting further stimulus, the average was-1.8 trillion, within 0.5- $ 3.5 trillion dollars.
“If markets sell out violently and economic data deteriorates, we can see that Washington facilitates the passage of stimulus even in a very contentious environment.”
Report by Shruti Sarkar; Voting by Tushar Goenka and Richa Rebello; Edited by Ross Finley and Bernadette Balm