The United Nations Security Council last week rejected a US attempt to extend a 13-year-old embargo on imports and exports from Iran of conventional weapons, including aircraft and tanks into and out of the Middle East.
Permanent members of China and Russia – who have vetoed power – banned the advance, while of the 15 countries in the UN Security Council, only the Dominican Republic joined the US in backing the overture. Prominent US allies Britain, Germany and France abstained from voting.
The year-long embargo is set to expire on October 18, so what exactly does it mean to fail to extend it?
It was apparently a doomed effort from the start. The US proposal to extend the arms embargo would require nine yes votes and zero fetuses to get the green light. That leaves this little option for the Trump administration – which distanced itself from the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known simply as the Iran Deal, in 2018 and instead pursued a “maximum pressure” “campaign against the Iranian leadership – then to call for the aggressive” snapback “facility. President Trump warned Monday that such a tactic could be pulled as early as next week.
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The accommodation is included in the agreement and formulated to punish all Iranian breaches of the deal by restoring the full scope of sanctions that were removed when the agreement went into effect – potentially triggering an even more important battle for Tehran . It could possibly mean that the beleagured nation is not only banned from arms deals, but also that it is oil and financial sectors can be further hindered.
Secretary of State John Kerry arrives at Capitol Hill in Washington on Wednesday, July 29, 2015, to testify before a Senate Arms Services Commission on the impact of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on U.S. interests and the military balance in the United States. Middle East. (AP Photo / Andrew Harnik)
(The Associated Press)
America’s allies stood against Washington in favor of the snapback measure, expressing concern about its destabilizing regional influence and the diplomatic disaster it would create in the Security Council.
Kamran Bokhari, director of analytical development at the Center for Global Policy, notes that the U.S. threat to snapback sanctions may in fact make matters worse in terms of the total collapse of the nuclear deal.
“But for that, it could plunge the Security Council into a crisis with the other four major powers along with Germany wanting to keep the nuclear deal,” he explained. “Meanwhile, Russia and China are already exploiting this situation to their respective advantage and will use it as leverage in their bilateral dealings with Washington. Of course, the Iranians are maximizing this outcome and claiming it as an enormous victory.”
Still other national security experts insist the move is now pivotal.
“The snapback mechanism is designed to put American interests first, and Russia and China cannot stop it. Importantly, snapback will not only extend the arms embargo on Iran – it will extend all other sanctions and restrictions on Iran that are in place. future years are also passing, “said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser to the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) and former staff of the National Security Council. “It removes Iran’s remaining strategic benefits from Iran’s nuclear deal and makes it more likely for it to negotiate a new deal on President Trump’s terms. In addition, anyone who opposes the US snapback will take a stand. in favor of Chinese arms sales to the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism – weapons that will be used to threaten America. ”
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But whether a U.S. snapback campaign would even be successful is debatable, given that the U.S. removed him from the JCPOA more than two years ago. It is likely, according to analysts, that Washington will have to build the case that it is technically still a “participating state” in the 2015 agreement – only for the purpose of imposing a snapback – and that Iran has extended its terms skeind. The resolution is a separate document for the JCPOA contract itself.
This image taken on board a Royal Navy Wildcat helicopter patrolling the Gulf as part of the International Maritime Security Construct shows the MV Stena Impero, background, as she sails from the port at Bandar Abbas, Iran, to ‘ t he was released by Iranian officials on Friday, sept. 27, 2019. Iran on Friday released the British-flagged oil tanker it seized in July 2019, while the country’s president, returning from an annual meeting of the United Nations, said he was told the United States offered to lift sanctions if Tehran returned to the negotiating table over its nuclear program. (Dan Rosenbaum / British Royal Navy via AP)
“Unless the US successfully eliminates the snapback mechanism, the arms embargo, such as travel bans on senior Iranian security officials, will expire on October 18, 2020. The UN Security Council will no longer have to approve the sale of weapons to Iran, including combat tanks, armored combat vehicles , large-caliber artillery systems, and fighter jets, “said Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). “The US Defense Intelligence Agency estimates that Iran could buy Russian Su-30 fighter jets and T-90 key slaughter tanks.”
Europe has apparently offered to compromise – whether to impose an international code of conduct on arms sales to Iran or only allow some sales to Tehran – Brodsky went on to emphasize that such options do not lack enforcement and water in the existing arms embargo.
“At a time when Iran is reportedly offering Taliban fines for killing American and coalition forces in Afghanistan, the international community should not reward Tehran for its bad behavior,” he said. “The UN Security Council endorses its mission to maintain international peace and security. And Europe wants it both ways, and is concerned about its key implications for regional security, while doing everything in its power to preserve the JCPOA. Europe’s policy is unsustainable, and dispels the concerns of those most affected by the expiry of the arms embargo in the region – namely the Gulf Cooperation Council and Israel. “
The arms embargo was intended to prevent the Iranian regime from selling and buying weapons, and if the snapback bid does not prove successful, Tehran could legally start re-storing its arsenal of weapons in two months – something its leaders have already promised to do. to do. The Minister of Defense, Brig. Gen. Amir Hatami said on Sunday that Iran “will use all capacity in the world to meet its arms requirements, selling and exporting weapons after lifting sanctions,” as per local press reports.
“I do not remember the US months ago preparing a resolution to strike a blow on the Islamic Republic of Iran, and it gets only one vote,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also stated in a televised speech. “But the great success was that the US was defeated in this conspiracy with humiliation.”
The spokesman for Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Mousavi also capitalized on the occasion, stressing that the country intends to export weapons immediately after the blockade expires.
In this photo, released by the official website of the Office of the Iranian Presidency, President Hassan Rouhani wears his face mask at a meeting of the national headquarters of the fight against the COVID-19, in Tehran, Iran, Saturday 18 July 2020 He estimates as many as 25 million Iranians could have been infected with the coronavirus since the outbreak began, citing a study by the Iranian Ministry of Public Health that has not been made public so far, the state government IRNA news agency reported . In Farsi, the top right reads, “The presidency.” (Iranian presidency via AP)
What that could potentially mean for the already war-torn and volatile region – of which Tehran is routinely accused of playing the proxy war game – has given rise to some added fears.
“The extremist regime in Iran does not just fund terrorism: it takes an active part in terrorism through its branches around the world and uses it as a political tool. This behavior represents a threat to regional and international stability,” he said. , Gabi Ashkenazi, explained.
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According to Erielle Davidson, a senior policy analyst at the Jewish Institute of National Security of America (JINSA), proponents of the Obama-era sold the JCPOA on the premise that this safety valve called the “snapback.”
“But now that the Trump administration is considering doing this, there is a real political antipathy to using the mechanism, although no one has presented an alternative plan, whether from the Biden camp or within the UN, on how.” t can contain Iran in a post -JCPOA world, “she warned.
“After years of maintaining multilateral arms sanctions, Iran’s army needs to be revamped, specifically its outdated air force. Without the snapback, Iran will be able to buy and sell conventional weapons freely,” Hooman Mirghasemi, a journalist, told the Associated Press. London-based Iran International TV “The people of Iran are going through a very difficult time. There is severe poverty, mainly due to the regime’s mismanagement, pervasive corruption, and the loss of billions of dollars in Syria, Iraq. “Lebanon and Yemen. Iranians are aware of that.”
