The Tokyo Olympics will open in a year. Perhaps.


Despite a recent surge in coronavirus cases and a ban on travel from 129 countries, the official line in Japan remains that the Games postponed to 2020 will open on July 23, 2021 in Tokyo.

Shortly after Yuriko Koike, the Tokyo governor, won a second term earlier this month, she met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to discuss measures to contain the virus. “I would like to lead the Olympic and Paralympic Games next year as proof that we have overcome the coronavirus,” she said.

On Wednesday, Tokyo raised its pandemic alert level to red, its highest rating, in response to a recent increase in cases concentrated in the metropolis’ sprawling nightlife district. In the past two weeks, Tokyo has recorded several consecutive daily records, peaking at 293 new infections last Friday.

Compared to other international cities, Tokyo has been relatively successful in containing the virus. A city of 14 million people, it has reported fewer than 9,000 cases and 326 deaths since February, compared to more than 3.5 million cases and nearly 140,000 deaths in the United States. Traditionally the financial engine of an Olympiad, the United States today represents perhaps the greatest threat to the Games.

Part of Japan’s strategy has been to close its borders to citizens traveling from 129 countries, including the United States and large portions of Europe, Africa, Latin America, and the rest of Asia. Japan has recently announced plans to negotiate some reciprocal travel between Japan and Australia, New Zealand, Thailand and Vietnam, but has not indicated when it plans to reopen its borders to travelers from the rest of the world.

Even within Japan, citizens remain cautious about traveling: A plan to encourage domestic travel met with resistance, as people feared that Tokyo residents might transmit the virus to other parts of the country. On Friday, the country’s tourism minister discouraged Tokyo residents from visiting other prefectures and said that government travel discounts would not apply to travelers to or from Tokyo.