The so-called ’08 crisis strategist says ‘something is hiding’ is a sign of market swings

Is it time to “get out of the dodge”?
Courtesy Everett Collection

The ups and downs in the stock market over the past few weeks have not been pleasant for anyone – although they do help employ financial journalists.

Here is another idea. The latest method may be more than just a normal course of business – and probably something to pay attention to.

“After this tug-of-war rally anywhere yesterday, I began to think about how the current market volatility and instability is so similar to what we saw in January and February of this year,” wrote David Rosenberg, now a longtime strategist running his own firm Rosenberg Research. .

Rosenberg is often referred to as a bear, and has had a glass-half-full view for most of this year. And it is also known to predict the subbriem mortgage crisis, while Bubble, Merrill Lynch – and one of the most capable people and works for the victims.

The biggest move of the Dow Jones Industrial Average

27 January

-453 points

January 31

-603 points

February 4

+407 points

5 February

+483 points

February 24

-1,031 points

27 February

-1,190 points

28 February

-357 points

March 2

+1,293 points

March 3

-785 points

March 4

+1,173 points

September 3

-807 points

September 9

+439 points

10 September

-405 points

14 September

+327 points

September 21

-509 points

September 23

-525 points

September 25

+358 points

28 September

+410 points

Source: Rosenberg Research

While investors around the world knew about the novel coronavirus in January and February – few guessed how bad it would turn out. Rosenberg also points out that markets “tank” in February, but only ends when the Fed and the Treasury and Congress join hands to ease the all-time very tight policy.

P te investors sometimes prefer to associate the bond market with signals and stocks with sound.

But Rosenberg thinks the recent stock market silence should be a cause for concern.

“Does this behavior seem normal to you?” He asked. “Do you think there is a reason for all this instability? Could it be a sign that something is hiding in the corner? ”

It’s not clear what that “something” might be, although the U.S. From the presidential election to the Brexit deal, there is an endless list of natural disasters. And underneath it all are rising global COVID-19 case counts that could forget the health system and the SEP economy – which predictors expect to get worse as winter approaches.

Rosenberg wrote, “Fatigue has subsided, people are getting sluggish, but the impact on economic activity is still one of the stretches.” “And as we go into autumn and then winter, the situation can only get worse. And at the end of the year, market movements, say you get out of the dodge – like, risk. “

Read ahead: “If the stock market no longer has the Fed, it needs an economy,” says David Rosenberg.