A mediocre stretch of polls for President Trump has some Republican agents nervous about the president’s reelection prospects in November, and some even raise the possibility for the first time that Trump may withdraw if his poll numbers don’t bounce.
“It is too early, but if the polls continue to worsen, you can see a scenario in which he withdraws,” a Republican agent who asked to remain anonymous told Fox News.
“I heard the talk but I doubt it’s true,” said another. “My bet is that it falls if you think there is no way to win.”
Trump poll numbers in recent weeks have dwindled amid criticism of his administration’s handling of the coronavirus epidemic and the White House response to the protests and riots following the death of George Floyd in late May while in Minneapolis police custody.
A recent Fox News poll had the president follow Democrat Joe Biden by 12 points, while an average poll from RealClearPolitics caused Trump to drop the former vice president nearly 10 points. Biden was also leading Trump in many key states on the battlefield, and surveys of Republican forts like Texas had Trump and Biden side by side.
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However, polls in the past have been misplaced, as the President knows well.
In 2016, Trump followed Hillary Clinton in almost every poll leading up to the general election before achieving her surprise victory. The president has also already endured numerous controversies during his tenure and emerged unscathed, at least among his fan base, according to analysts.
The Trump campaign flatly denied the president withdrew from the race and criticized the polls for allegedly under-sampling Republican voters.
“This is the grandfather of fake news,” Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh told Fox News. “Everyone knows that media polls have always been wrong about President Trump (they underestimate Republicans and don’t select potential voters) to set up false narratives.” It won’t work. There were similar concerns in 2016 and if it had been accurate, Hillary Clinton would be in the White House right now. “
After the latest series of polls, his campaign released a memorandum on Sunday essentially refuting claims that the president’s chances for reelection were in trouble. The campaign cited polls that showed a lack of enthusiasm for Biden, especially in key battlefield states, and questioned the methodology used in major polls.
“As was the case in 2016, the mainstream media rely on surveys financed by their own operations and others, published to establish a narrative that fits their own worldviews,” the campaign stated. “The president’s campaign has repeatedly questioned the validity of such a poll, based on methodology, party representation in the sample, wording of questions, and other factors.”
He continued: “These are legitimate criticisms, as there are real differences between public and proprietary internal polls, as the campaign runs on its own.”
With the 2020 general election still more than four months away, Republican Party members and Trump campaign staff have been trying to change the streak of bad polls by targeting what they saw as the main weaknesses of Biden.
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The Trump campaign has recently tried to lure Biden back onto the campaign trail in hopes that he will cheat on his stump. They also criticized Biden as “soft” in China, questioned his sharpness of mind, and said he would be on the left of his party if the White House won.
“Joe Biden is the weakest Democratic candidate in a generation and we are defining him that way,” Murtaugh said. On the contrary, President Trump built the best economy in the world before the global pandemic interrupted it and he is doing it a second time. Joe Biden would be an economic disaster and raise taxes and impose crushing New Green Agreement regulations on job creators. “
He added: “We are four months away from Election Day and, in the end, it will be a clear choice between President Trump’s incredible record of achievement and Joe Biden’s half century of failure in Washington, DC”
The series of polls came immediately after the Trump rally last weekend in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the president’s first rally since the coronavirus shuttered much of the country three months ago.
The Trump campaign had touted that 1 million people had applied for tickets, and was forecasting a sold-out stadium with an additional 40,000 fans at a makeshift overflow site off-site. But, the crowd did not materialize, the outdoor stage was dismantled, and cameras showed that large portions of the upper deck of the arena were empty.
The events caused some of the president’s main supporters to sound the alarms.
“President Trump may lose these elections,” Fox News presenter Tucker Carlson tweeted hours after the launch of his network polls.
Carlson’s tweet was linked to a video of his primetime show on Thursday night, when he kicked off his show warning that “not many people say it out loud to the right, but the fact is that President Trump he could lose this election. In fact, unless the fundamental facts change soon, it could be difficult for him to be reelected. “
Longtime Republican strategist Colin Reed told Fox News: “You can rule out a poll, but this is pretty consistent across the board.”
He also noted: “One of Donald Trump’s greatest political responsibilities at the moment used to be one of his greatest strengths: his ability to dominate news cycles and headlines.”
Reed noted that “for Trump to change this, he only needs to successfully prosecute Joe Biden’s four and a half decades in office.” If this election is a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, there is a long way to go until November. If this is a referendum on Donald Trump, Joe Biden seems to be in a pretty good place. “
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David Tamasi, an influential DC-based lobbyist and Republican donor who raised money for the President, told Fox News that, however, much could change between now and Election Day. “On the money side, I have not seen any drop. If the elections were held today, I think it would certainly be much closer to what public polls say at the moment, “he said.
And, pointing to the calendar, he emphasized: “We have a long way to go. I’m not too concerned at this point where things are. “
Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.
