The United States is one of the largest national aviation markets in the world. With three leading international airlines, a massive national airline, and a host of low-cost and regional airlines, there is a lot of potential in this market. The next ten years will see a significant change in aviation. Here is what to look for.
The growth of secondary airports.
Below is a list of the largest US airports by passenger served and destinations reached:
- Boston (BOS)
- New York (JFK and EWR)
- Washington (IAD)
- Philadelphia (PHL)
- Atlanta (ATL)
- Charlotte (CLT)
- Miami (mine)
- Detroit (DTW)
- Chicago (ORD)
- Minneapolis (MSP)
- Dallas (DFW)
- Houston (IAH)
- Denver (DEN)
- Seattle (sea)
- San Francisco (OFS)
- Los Angeles (LAX)
- Phoenix (PHX)
- Salt Lake City (SLC)
While there are other airports such as Orlando, Las Vegas, and Fort Lauderdale, these airports don’t see the same type of hub as a U.S. airline with expansive connections and international flights, though there are a few.
Based on preliminary FAA data on 2019 aircraft seen by Simple Flying, below are some of the fastest growing airports in the United States based on changes from 2018 to 2019 for airports receiving more than five million passengers per year:
- Nashville International [BNA] (11.45%)
- Raleigh-Durham Intl. [RDU] (10.57%)
- Austin-Bergstrom International [AUS] (10.28%)
- Southwest Florida International [RSW] (9.60%)
- Saint Joseph Norman Y. Mineta [SJC] (9.32%)
- Sacramento International [SMF] (9.26%)
- New Orleans Louis Armstrong International [MSY] (4.44%)
- San Antonio International [SAT] (3.69%)
- St. Louis Lambert International [STL] (1.68%)
- Dallas Love Field [DAL] (0.86%)
Tight competition
These ten airports mentioned above, especially the main eight, are the ones that should be taken into account in the future. Some of these airports, like Nashville, are expanding to offer new national and international services. As national hubs become more congested, airlines will need to search for passengers at these fast-growing airports (and their adjacent cities). There is already a big battle for Austin-Bergstrom between American and Delta.
American Airlines has taken a much more aggressive stance by adding capacity and placing flights. Watch to see if the AA team decides to continue building new routes outside of non-core cities.
More technology on the ground and in the air.
Delta is likely to keep moving forward to make WiFi connection free for all passengers. Meanwhile, other airlines will continue to increase WiFi connectivity and make it easier for business travelers to connect on board. American Airlines has begun implementing a new WiFi in-flight portal so that regular customers can easily access WiFi in flight.
Contactless registration processes are also on the rise. Airlines have already begun offering mobile boarding passes, self-service baggage stations, and more to make the check-in process more efficient. The biometric approach could also be another winner.
As for health, expect additional technological advancements that make cleaning an airplane and keeping passengers safe easier and faster. Things like electrostatic spraying and the use of ultraviolet light technology could soon help disinfect an airplane and airport areas faster than any other technology previously known.
Are there mergers on the horizon?
Generally, after crises, the airline industry has worked to merge and reduce competition. Although the market has mainly consolidated, there are still opportunities for mergers. American, Delta and United are unlikely to seek to merge. Furthermore, antitrust activists and government agencies may find that going against the public interest.
There is room for consolidation at the regional level among airlines operating on behalf of the major airlines. But, another consolidation point would be low-cost airlines and secondary airlines in the United States. This would be especially true among airlines with complementary route networks where one is in a stronger financial position compared to the other.
What else do you think the next ten years will have? Let us know in the comments!
