The war between Armenia and Azerbaijan came to an abrupt end on Monday, as if the conflict could enter a more dangerous phase, with some fearing it would lead to ethnic cleansing.
Over the past six weeks, Caucasus rivals have fought their second battle over the size of Delaware in the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The area is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but is claimed and governed by ethnic Armenians. Since the first war in which at least 30,000 people were killed in the 1994 ceasefire, both sides have failed to reach a lasting diplomatic settlement to the dispute.
On Sunday, the conflict – which has been killing 1,000 to 5,000 people since September 27 – seemed like it was preparing to get a lot more, which is even worse.
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev Claimed to have advanced on the military city of Shusha (the second largest city in Namenoro-Karabakh, Nagarono-Karabakh, considered the cultural capital of the broken region. Provides a strategic location from where to shell the city.
More devastation, then, as everyone expected on Monday morning.
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Tim Ryan Williams / Vox
But then things changed. “We all turned a blind eye,” said Roya Talibova, an Azerbaijani who was internally displaced by the violence of the First World War and is currently a PhD student at the University of Michigan.
On Monday night, Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashinya announced on social media that they had signed Peace deal With Russia and Azerbaijan to end the war. “It’s not a victory, but a defeat,” he said. “I made that decision as a result of a deep analysis of the military situation.” Hours later, Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the agreement on television, but Pashinin did not attend the teleconference.
Russia has long played a role in the conflict. He is a major player in the region and one of the three co-chairs of the Minsk Group, a diplomatic effort to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Shortly after the peace deal was announced, hundreds of Armenians protested against government buildings in the Armenian capital, Yerevan. Most likely, the protesters knocked on Pashinyan’s name from the door of his office. “Nicole has betrayed us,” some said. “Where is that traitor?” Others boomed.
It’s easy to see why so many Armenians are offended by this result. His country lost the military control of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan Re-established the balance of power in the conflict It had stabilized since the 1990 ceasefire.
“Azerbaijan is happy, they have won,” said Nate Schenk, director of special research at the democratic advocacy group Freedom House.
In addition, both Russia and Turkey – which later militarily supported Azerbaijan – gained more power in the region, leaving Armenia by the weakest player in the conflict.
Here’s what you need to know about the fight signed on Monday night and what it means for the future of the conflict.
What the Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia peace agreement really says
The situation is still fluid and things may change, but experts say that’s the general outline of the deal as it currently stands.
Quick map of which parts #Artsakh/# करबख The Armenians hold the people (yellow), who are already militarily occupied, and Azerbaijan (green / blue), and the rest, who have surrendered in Azerbaijan; Conditions include Armenian-occupied Kazakh enclaves and access to Nakhichivan pic.twitter.com/qRmwaZTLwH
– Ryan O’Farrell (RyanMoffrell) November 9, 2020
Armenia lost the war, so it lost the most.
Under the terms of the agreement, Armenia should withdraw from three areas of Nagorno-Karabakh, with seven surrounding territories, in the rear from December 1.
It keeps ethnic Armenians in control of the capital, Stepanakert, and most of the areas to the north, but experts say that what the Armenians will hold is not strategically important. In effect, Armenia will maintain negligible political control over the vulnerability of the capital and its territory (yellow part of the map above), but that’s about it. The power that Armenia has had for decades is fundamentally gone.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan won the war, so it got the most advantage.
By December 1, it will control three areas withdrawn from Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding seven regions, while also in Shusha (or Shushi). This means that Azerbaijan will control the most important areas of Nagorno-Karabakh (green area in the map above) with its military forces.
The peace agreement then certifies Azerbaijan’s victory. “This statement contains the punishment of Armenia. This statement puts an end to years of business, “Aliyev said Monday.
In addition, Azerbaijan will be allowed to build a road connecting its enclave in the west, Nakhichevan to the east, properly connecting the country. Which will enhance its territorial integrity, facilitating the transfer of military supplies and economic supplies as needed.
But the warring parties are not the only ones involved: Russia is also the winner.
The Kremlin, a three-mile stretch of the Lachin Corridor, the main road that properly connects Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, will maintain about 2,000 peacekeepers for five years. Experts say their main task will be to prevent further Azerbaijani development and to defend Armenia, as Russia has a defense agreement with that country. Those forces will also oversee the construction of a road from the corridor to Stepnecart that obstructs Shusha – which will underline the Armenian damage to that city.
Experts say that having troops in the resolution of the conflict and increasingly Russia gives Russia more regional influence than it does. Russia wants the same, it provides with its own kind of victory. This could benefit Armenia over time, as the presence of Russian troops in the area could give it space to rebuild and strengthen.
Turkey also gained influence. The Turkish government strongly supported Azerbaijan in the war, and won the battle on its side. As a result, Turkey now has strong ties with the winning party. Moreover, it looks like Turkey will create a joint peace and security center with Russia, which will give it even more influence in the region. Experts, however, say it is the most proposed proposal so far, and there are no clear details on what such an organization would look like or how it would work in practice.
Overall, this deal means that Azerbaijan is the clear winner in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; Armenia is scattered and in political turmoil; And both Russia and Turkey increased their presence and influence in the region. It’s a dramatic shift from what the situation looked like six weeks ago.
The question now is whether there will be a deal. Three previous ceasefire attempts failed in this recent conflict, and political opposition to the deal in Armenia could force the current prime minister – or someone else who has usurped his power – to withdraw from the treaty.
At that point, the potential war will resume, leading to potential danger and tragedy that many fear will arise before the events of the last 24 hours change everything.
