Six months after the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in the American economy, once promising recovery is stalling, leaving millions out of work, and threatening to push millions of people – especially women – completely out of the labor force.
The latest evidence came on Friday, when the Labor Department reported that employers added 661,000 jobs in September, much lower than expected.
This was the third month of slowing job growth, which was a worrying trend given the scale of the challenge ahead. There are about 11 million fewer jobs in economics compared to the epidemic, a huge loss of more than 8.7 million at the depth of the recession a decade ago.
Economists said the report downplayed the need for more federal assistance. “It’s disturbing that we’re seeing such a dramatic decline in employment gains as we move into the fall,” said Diane Sonk, chief economist at accounting firm Grant Thornton. “This is a red flag. We need help now. “
The September recession was partly the result of public sector job losses, especially in school districts, where payrolls have fallen by more than 200,000. Economists said some of those jobs would return if more schools were opened for personal instruction. But state and local governments will make further cuts due to the reduction in tax revenue.
Unemployment fell to 9 percent from a record 1 percent in April. But that good news also gave a warning: about 700,000 people left the labor force, meaning they are no longer considered unemployed. And the growing share of the unemployed is that losing their jobs is permanent instead of furlough.
The report was the last set of monthly job numbers before the November 3 presidential election – and one of the last major parts of the economic data.
Trump administration officials have put a positive spin on the report. Larry Cudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told the Fox Business Network that analysts were mistyping the numbers. “I think they’re better than what some people think,” he said. “The overall economy is looking good.”
The news that President Trump has tested positive for the coronavirus makes it unclear how much economic data matters in the run-up to the election. But economists said recent data sent a clear message: Without a “Phase 4” spending package in Congress, the recession would only get worse.
“Everything depends on Phase 4 and whether we get it or not,” said Anita Markowska, chief economist at investment bank Jefferies. “There’s no middle ground.”
The prospect of a deal has improved this week as all appear to have died in September. On Friday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed the possibility of giving Mr. Trump more coronavirus diagnosis agreement.
“This kind of dynamism changes, because here we see the reality of what they say: this is an evil virus,” Ms. Pelosi said on MSNBC.
For small businesses in industries to be most severely affected by the epidemic, the lack of federal assistance is a threat to survival – and time is running out.
The movie theaters, which closed last spring due to the epidemic, were thanked for loans under the Pack Check Protection Program. But that money has gone a long way. The company, which operates five theaters in the Cleveland area, has also made cash savings, setting aside to pay for a new seat to help it compete with larger multiplexes.
John Foreman, who has owned Cleveland Cinema since 1977, is not sure what to do next. It has only reopened two theaters, and is not attracting enough patrons to break even with less than 10 employees falling below 85 before the epidemic.
Many Americans are wary of sitting with strangers indoors for two to three hours. And studios, reluctant to distribute big-budget movies while few people will pay to see them, delay big releases until 2021.
Big chains may have the resources to wait for better days, but Mr. Foreman isn’t sure he does. He has closed one theater permanently. The other two have been in the dark since March, and he is considering keeping the two reopened until demand is met.
“We are on the verge of going down,” he said. “Without some kind of support, businesses will not survive.”
Like Mr. Forman, the story reflects the growing dangers that, as the crisis progresses, it will do permanent damage to the economy.
When unemployment soared in March and April, most of the job losses were temporary layoffs or furloughs. But that has begun to change. The number of people reported to have been let go permanently in September has risen to 8.8 million, almost double the height of the epidemic in April.
“Initially, temporary layoffs are now increasingly turning into permanent traps, as companies begin to see what their near future looks like,” said Erica Gross, an economist at Cornell University and former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The prospects are particularly grim for those who lost their jobs in the first week of the crisis. ૨ 2. Week or more ૨4 .. Millions are out of work, formal formal – if somewhat arbitrary – threshold for long-term unemployment. An even bigger wave continues: about five million people have been out of work for 15 to 26 weeks.
Research has shown that people who stay out of work for six months or more have a harder time getting a job even when the economy improves, and many lose the ability to work. It can leave a lasting scar on both workers and the wider economy.
Connie Cermento did three jobs supporting her family as a mother. He lost it all in a matter of weeks: Grand Hyatt in San Francisco, where he worked as a telephone operator, fired him in March. The following month, she lost her job at Chase Center, home to Oracle Park, the Giants Baseball Stadium, and the NBA’s Golden State Warriors.
Initially, Ms. Cermiento a weekend. 600 thanks to which the federal government added 50 450-week unemployment payments from the state through it. But the supplemental benefits expired in late July and she is lagging behind her bills.
Ms. Cermiento’s monthly rent of 3,000 was due on Thursday, but she has only half the money she needs to pay. He said, ‘I have to tell my landlord that I am unable to pay.’ “I’m afraid he’ll tell me I have to get out. It’s really scary. “
Ms. Sarmiento hopes to return to work next season at Heights and Oracle Park this fall. She worries about her chances if those jobs don’t come back.
He said, “I’m disappointed. “Some of the jobs I can get are in the warehouse. I’m 60 and I don’t know if I can lift big, heavy stuff now. My body is getting weak. “
The September data contained terrible news about the impact of the epidemic, especially on women. Employers with heavy female workforce, such as the hospitality and retail industries, saw a decline in early employment. While employment in that business has begun to return, many women have been unable to return to work because they are inconsistently shouldering the burden of keeping children at home from school.
The number of working women fell to 13,000,000 in September, and the share of working women or women actively looking for work – a measure known as the labor force participation rate – dropped from 56 percent to 56.5.6 percent. Is. It is the lowest reading for women labor force participation since 1987, except for April and May 2020.
Economists worry that an unexpected break in their careers could prove to be a long-term shock for many women.
“We know that women give up the power to work to take care of their children, and that their earnings, their seniority and their stairs have a lasting effect,” said Julia Polk, a labor economist with career site Zipractor. “Career interruptions have a huge impact.”
When schools and child care centers closed in March, Sergeant Drishin began bringing his 11-year-old daughter with him to work as a home health assistant in the Seattle area. During the day, she did two jobs at the same time – taking care of her client, and rushing to another room to help her daughter adjust to school on-line.
But the 48-year-old Ms. Sergeant, he raised concerns about the dangers of going to work every day for himself, his daughter and his client. And she got a lot of child care to balance work and care. In mid-April, he decided to take a leave of absence from work.
But the relief experience of being able to fully focus on her daughter’s needs was quickly replaced by anxiety over her bills as she was no longer working. She has to borrow money from friends to pay rent, utilities and cars.
She plans to return to work as soon as schools and child care centers reopen. But he doesn’t know how long it will take.
“As a parent, I’m the only provider for my daughter, and I’m trying my best to manage.”
Jinnah Smialek, Alan Rapport and Emily Cochrane contributed to the reporting.
