The housing market is already on fire, and inflation will follow soon, argues former Morgan Stanley economist

The bond market has stabilized after a massive sell-off, and the stock has been relieved. Technically dominated Nasdaq Composite


Over the last nine seasons and Russell has advanced to 2000


U.S. After the election, the small-cap index gained 2.8% to reach 2.35%.

Will peace continue? Manoj Pradhan, former managing director of Morgan Stanley in charge of global economics and founder of Talking Heads Mac Mac Economics, said in a presentation hosted by fund manager Tabala Investment Management that inflation would intensify only when the Federal Reserve expects it to cool. , Next year.

The minister argued that the breakdown of the Phillips curve – the traditional relationship that shows rising inflation as unemployment declines – is due to China’s entry into the global labor force. But he said demographic information and the COVID-19 epidemic would fix it.

First, for demographic information. U.S. And the aging of the developed world’s population will mean the loss of workers, and the aging of the population is also driving up government spending. The minister has also noted that he has worked hard to take care of the elderly. “We need technology to destroy jobs in other parts of the economy so that the wages it represents can be restored to the same level of skills, in the care of the elderly.”

In the epidemic. Now, he said, the money supply signals are “the most extreme signals you’ve ever seen.” Now that doesn’t translate to inflation, as the pace of money has broken down, and savings rates have risen, both functions of consumers are off at home. Citing research from the European Central Bank, the minister said the increase in savings was “compelling” rather than “cautious”.

As the economy normalizes, mandatory savings will act as a delayed stimulus. Even now, the housing market is on fire, with prices rising around the world. “This is a way to spend that could also pull in some extra labor,” he said. But official inflation measures do not see an increase in house prices.

The Fed is already trying to overcome the challenge of incoming inflation readings, which could show a year-on-year gain of 3.5% to 4%, in May and June. “I will tell you that anything above 3.5% -4% will cause a significant breakdown in the relationship. [between stocks and bonds]”For the last 30 years, people in advanced economies have not seen inflation on a large scale,” he said.

“The real challenge will come in 2022, when a lot will be spent on goods or houses, with fiscal consolidation accelerating even more,” he said. It expects the yield curve to move forward, and if the Fed applies another operation twist or controls the yield curve, it will push inflation further.

Asset returns are predicted to be difficult, inequality will decrease but against the backdrop of weak growth and the central bank’s independence will be at increased risk.

WeWork deal

WeWork, a shared office fee provider, has agreed to merge with special-purpose acquisition company Baoex Acquisition Corp.


At a valuation of 9 billion. The Wall Street Journal reports that media startups could merge xxios and th Thaletic and then go public with a merger with SPAC.

The ever-delivered container ship is still stuck in the Suez Canal, disrupting trade of about 10 billion dollars a day.

L Brands


The government’s stimulus check has raised the outlook for earnings by showing sales trends due to changes in consumer spending patterns, relaxation of limits on COVID-19 on movement and other factors.

Friday’s data calendar calendar lender includes personal income, consumer spending and the PCE price index for February, as well as an initial look at trades and inventories.

The Fed said the temporary limit on dividend payments and share buybacks after June 30 would end for most banks.

Another day?

U.S. Stock futures



The yield on the 10-year Treasury pointed to a quiet start


Increased to 1.67%.

Crude-oil futures


The barrel was approaching $ 60 per barrel


Was stable.

Reads randomly

NASA is getting ready to fly a helicopter over Mars.

There is nothing like an epidemic to inspire competition for the most important shed of the year.

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