The electoral map continues to worsen for Trump

But as we learned in 2016 (and 2000!), The only position that really matters is the Electoral College.

Unfortunately for Trump, his chances of reaching the 270 electoral votes he needs to win a second term seem, at least for the time being, quite slim.

Over the past week, two top political forecasters, Amy Walter in the Cook Political Report and Nate Silver in 538, have posted an updated look at the electoral map. And the image they paint for Trump is serious.

“With just under five months until the election, President Trump is a severe underdog for reelection,” writes Walter, who casts 248 electoral votes solidly or bows to Biden and 204 solidly or bows to Trump.

“To win Electoral College, Biden would need to win only 26 percent of those Toss Up states / districts, while Trump would need to win more than 75 percent of them. In other words, Trump has little margin for error, while Biden has a broader path to win. “

Silver’s analysis is similar.

“Overall, assuming states that haven’t been surveyed go the same way they did in 2016, Biden leads in states with 368 electoral votes, while Trump leads in states with a total of 170 electoral votes,” he writes.
Just to be clear: Neither Walter nor Silver (nor I) say that the election is over or that Trump cannot win. In fact, while Silver suggests that there is a chance that Biden will win in a “landslide” if all of the current demolition states go to him, “so too is a victory for Trump Electoral College, depending on how the Career advance between now and November.

But what they They are to say is that at this moment the electoral map is very in favor of Biden. Not only are the traditional Democratic states that Trump won in 2016, like Michigan and Pennsylvania, likely to return to the Democratic column in 2020, but former Republican strongholds like Arizona, North Carolina, and even Texas appear to be really at stake for Biden. .

All of which gives the alleged Democratic candidate, as Walter rightly points out, more ways for the 270 electoral votes he needed to be the 46th president.

Roads do They still exist for Trump, especially by maintaining two of the three Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and maintaining the status quo elsewhere on the map.

But there are far fewer paths for Trump than for Biden. And with each passing week, the number of good electoral map options for Trump continues to decline.

Point: The best news for Trump is that Election Day is still far away. If the elections were held today, he would lose convincingly, in the popular vote and in the Electoral College.