The commercial launch industry will start slowly in 2020


WASHINGTON – The first half of 2020 has been slow for the commercial launch industry, but its problems cannot be explained solely by the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the statistics compiled by Spacenews, there were 45 orbital launch attempts in the first six months of 2020, including four failed launches. That would put the overall launch industry at a rate of 90 launches in the year, slightly less than the 102 launches attempted in 2019.

Of those 45 launches, just over half, 23, were carried out or negotiated by Western launch companies. This includes Arianespace, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), Northrop Grumman, Rocket Lab, SpaceX, United Launch Alliance, and Virgin Orbit. The rest was carried out by Chinese organizations, the Russian government and Iran.

However, most of those 23 releases were not for commercial customers. Arianespace launched two Ariane 5 launches earlier this year carrying commercial communications satellites or government satellites whose launches were competing commercially. It also negotiated two Soyuz launches of OneWeb satellites before OneWeb filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in March.

Other launch companies have relied on government or internal clients. The two MHI H-2 launches have been for the Japanese government, one carrying a reconnaissance satellite and the other a HTV cargo spacecraft to the International Space Station. Northrop Grumman’s only launch in Antares was also an ISS cargo mission. ULA has launched three Atlas 5 launches, two with payloads for the US Army and the other the ESA / NASA Solar Orbiter spacecraft.

In the small launch vehicle market, Rocket Lab has conducted two Electron launches to date, with the National Reconnaissance Office being the main customer in both cases. Virgin Orbit LauncherOne’s first launch on May 25, which failed to reach orbit, only had a demo payload.

Among Western launch companies, SpaceX has been the most active, with 10 Falcon 9 releases so far. However, seven of those launches have been for the company’s own Starlink satellites, and did not generate any launch revenue beyond a small amount by transporting three secondary SkySat payloads to Planet on the most recent Starlink mission on 13 of June. The other three launches were for US government clients: an ISS cargo spacecraft, the Demo-2 commercial crew mission, and the June 30 launch of a GPS 3 satellite for the US Space Force. .

The lack of commercial launches can be attributed in part to the pandemic. Some companies, such as Arianespace and Rocket Lab, temporarily suspended launch operations due to government restrictions. The launch of SpaceX from Argentina’s SAOCOM 1B satellite, which was acquired commercially, was postponed this spring due to international travel restrictions.

However, the pandemic alone is not responsible for the shortage of launches. “I think it would have been a difficult year, no matter what happens,” Janice Starzyk, vice president of commercial space at Bryce Space and Technology, said in an interview on July 1.

That assessment is based on the sharp decline in orders for commercial geostationary-orbit communications satellites in recent years. That decline in orders is now shown as a lack of launches. “2020 was going to be a pretty slow year,” he said. “There simply were not as many satellites ordered to launch this year.”

Starzyk said it did not expect an increase in commercial launch activity in the rest of the year due to lack of orders. Another factor is the bankruptcy of OneWeb, which has halted what would be a constant rate of release this year.

There are some signs of renewed commercial launch activity. Rocket Lab’s next Electrcket launch, scheduled for July 5, will carry a set of commercial satellites for Canon, Planet and Missions in space. Arianespace will resume Ariane 5 launches in late July with satellites for Intelsat and B-SAT, while a long-delayed Vega launch carrying dozens of small seats is now slated for mid-August. SpaceX is expected to launch Anasis 2, a South Korean military satellite that was launched commercially, also in July.

Looking beyond 2020, there has been an increase in commercial orders for GEO satellites, including 10 C-band satellites ordered in recent weeks by Intelsat and SES as part of the FCC’s effort to clear satellite C-band spectrum for its use in terrestrial 5G systems. While launch contracts for those satellites have yet to be announced, Starzyk said Intelsat and SES have likely already organized launches to ensure companies can meet the FCC’s deadlines to clear that spectrum.

“It will be a decent year” for the launch industry in general, he said. “It is not going to be a great year, but it is not going to be a horrible year.”