(CNN) – Sitting under pressure from a number of strangers on board an airplane can feel like a risky position in these uncertain times.
But according to some experts who point to the very few documented cases of flight transfers, the chances of catching Covid-19 when you are on board a flight are actually relatively slim.
Fear for flights during the pandemic has drastically reduced global air traffic, which has was also restricted due to border closures. If new scientific claims are carried, the perceived increased risk of boarding an aircraft may be unfounded.
And there have been cases of infected passengers passing the virus on to a plane crew as fellow travelers in recent months, the transfer rates are low.
Two passengers developed flights after flying with a group of tourists who were in contact with an infected hotel manager and also became infected, according to researchers from the Institute of Medical Virology at Goethe University in Frankfurt.
The two people who may have been infected were sitting at the back of the plane, directly across the corridor of seven passengers who had unknowingly picked up the virus.
Meanwhile, several new protocols have been implemented, such as face cover for both passengers and crew, which is mandatory for most airlines, temperature shielding, as well as intensive cleaning and limited movement in the cabin during the flight.
Arnold Barnett, a professor of statistics at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, tried to quantify the chances of becoming infected with the virus while on board a short flight in a recent study that ‘ t looked at the benefits of the low middle seat policy.
Low transfer risk
The chance of a passenger catching Covid-19 on a flight and dying from the virus is less than one in half a million.
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According to his findings, based on short-haul flights in the US on aircraft configured with three seats on opposite sides of the aisle, such as the Airbus 320 and the Boeing 737 – and assuming everyone has a mask – the risk of being caught the virus on a full flight is just 1 in 4,300. Those odds drop to 1 in 7,700 when the middle seat is empty.
“Most things are now more dangerous than they were for Covid, and aviation is no exception,” he tells CNN Travel.
“But three things have to go wrong for you to get infected (on a flight). There has to be a Covid-19 patient on board and they have to be contagious,” he says. “If there is such a person on your flight, assuming they are wearing a mask, then it must fail to prevent the transfer.
“They also need to be close enough that there is a danger that you could suffer from the transmission.”
Barnett says he has taken all this opportunity into account before determining an overall transmission risk.
The chances will be even lower for flights taken in parts of the world with a few cases, as well as for long-haul flights, because “the ratio of close is a factor along with the existence of close, he says.
Barnett further explains that there is not much difference in terms of risk between passengers sitting on a full aisle on a full flight and those in the wheelchair.
However, the chances of getting infected are always so higher for those in seats that they just have more people around them.
“You are threatened by the people sitting in the same row next to you,” he says. “And to a lesser extent, the people in the back row and the front row.
“Statistically, the wheelchair is a little safer than the middle seat than the wheelchair on a plane that is full. But it’s not a big difference.”
Less floors
Many major airports around the world are still almost empty due to the impact of the pandemic.
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Barnett’s research is based on the assumption that flights follow volume, but it is worth noting that many still run with reduced capacity.
“Screening, face covering and masks are one of the many layers of measures we recommend,” Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s CEO and CEO, said in an official statement released last month. “Leaving the middle seat empty, however, is not.”
The Juniac proposes an effective Covid-19 test that can be scaled up, and immunity passports can also be included as temporary biosecurity measures as they become available.
“We need to come up with a solution that gives passengers the confidence to fly and keep the cost of flights affordable,” he adds. “One without the other will have no lasting advantage.”
Although different airlines have somewhat different measures in place, the general guidance for passengers is to wear a mask, wash their hands regularly and check online to minimize the risks of in-flight transportation.
Improved protection
Some experts have suggested that passengers should wear a shield as a mask for greater protection.
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However, Barnett advises travelers to take things a step further by wearing a shield.
“There are several things that can be done to take the risk, which is small, and make it even smaller,” he says.
“Because it (a shield) covers your eyes, nose and mouth, it reduces the risk of others infecting you.
“Science changes every day, but my understanding is that if you wear a mask, it reduces the chance that you will infect others. But it does not protect you that much, while a shield will protect you.
“If I flew now, I would definitely wear a shield.”
This view is somewhat supported by a new research report from the UK’s University of Edinburgh and Heriot-Watt University, which concludes that the use of plastic barriers called personal protective chair protectors will significantly reduce the risk of Covid-19 contamination if worn with face masks.
It recommends that aircraft seats be fitted with personal protective windows (PPW), clear plastic barriers designed by UK-based aircraft interior and exterior specialist RAS Completions, which can be secured to the back and sides of each seat in an aircraft.
“Our recommendation is that airlines should make face masks mandatory, and if they are used in combination with PPW and regular cleaning of PPW, Covid-19 contamination risk is kept to a minimum,” said the co-author of the report. Cathal Cummins, an assistant professor at Heriot-Watt University, also in Edinburgh.
“If all three measures are mandatory, along with good personal hygiene, airlines can increase passenger protection.”
High risk groups
In July, Qatar Airways became the first airline to make it mandatory for passengers to wear a face shield next to a face mask or face mask.
The turtles provided by the carrier are mandatory for economy class passengers unless they are eating or drinking, while those traveling in business class can carry them “at their own discretion” because they provide more space and privacy enjoy. “
However, all passengers must carry them when boarding and deplaning.
Before taking off, customers traveling with the Middle Eastern carrier will be provided with protective kits – including face shields, handcuffs, a surgical face mask and disposable gloves.
Barnett emphasizes that it will take the development of a vaccine as a change in the care available to Covid-19 patients for those anxious travelers to feel comfortable, no matter how many safety measures are in place.
“I miss it quite a bit,” he claims. “I find flying wonderful and, under normal circumstances, unintentionally safe.
“But these are not normal circumstances.”
CNN Health’s Naomi Thomas contributed to this story
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