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Since the outbreak of violence in the Caucasus in mid-July, Turkey has demonstrated in defense of its Muslim ally Azerbaijan, with whom it shares linguistic and ethnic ties, offering to offer new weapons to Baku. Erdoğan has promised to “oppose any attack” against Azerbaijan, which supplies Turkey with cheap natural gas.
Meanwhile, Moscow last week ordered large-scale military exercises in southwestern Russia, which the defense ministry denied due to the crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and called for a ceasefire and said it is ready to act as a mediator between two sides.
Caucasian neighbors went to war in the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan in the 1990s, and in recent years have waged an arms race as Russia sells billions of dollars worth of arms on both sides. The dispute, one of the oldest conflicts in the world, has marked years of international mediation and, since 2008, sporadic skirmishes and bombings have killed hundreds of people.
Azerbaijan’s statement last week that its missile system allows it to attack Armenia’s Soviet-era nuclear power plant sparked fear and speculation that the dispute could spiral out of control. The United States said last week that it is “deeply concerned” and urged the two capitals, Baku and Yerevan, to speak.
Unlike the previous fighting, this latest clash, which included heavy drone, tank and artillery attacks, occurred 300 kilometers from Nagorno-Karabakh along the internationally recognized border and close to the Caspian oil and gas pipelines and a railway supplying world markets through Turkey. In a rare, if veiled, critique of Russia’s possible role in the confrontation, Erdogan called the offensive “beyond the caliber of Armenia.”
“This is Russia’s backyard, and the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan continues within the parameters set by Russia,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Turkey director of the German Marshall Fund. “Turkey sees this [latest clash] as a message from Russia, but you know that it is extremely risky to confront Russia here, even through representatives. Although Turkey has shown strong support for Azerbaijan, it has never considered direct intervention. “
Azerbaijan, which is richer and militarily superior to Armenia, has avoided escalating the conflict in recent years because it knows that Armenia enjoys tacit support from Russia, which maintains a military base in the landlocked country. Azerbaijan is now working to improve relations with Moscow, in the hope that it can help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute where the West has failed.
For some, the outbreak of violence in the Caucasus is the result of shifting allegiances in other conflict zones.
Erdogan said last month that Turkey may turn a new page in its relationship with the United States, as its interests in Libya and Syria align more closely. The news was not welcome in Moscow, which supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and has negotiated a series of ceasefires with Turkey, the latest of which, in March, largely quelled the fight in the final stronghold of the opposition.
In Libya, Russian mercenaries, along with the United Arab Emirates and France, have backed rebel commander Khalifa Haftar, whose advance was thwarted when Turkey entered the civil war in January, turning the tide in favor of the internationally recognized government in Tripoli. .
“The main dynamic of competitive cooperation between Turkey and Russia is that both countries feel rejected by the West,” said Unluhisarcikli. “As Turkey cooperates with the United States, this alliance begins to crumble. This time, Russia has given its answer in the Caucasus. “
Turkey’s unusually strong rhetoric in the Caucasus is also part of Erdogan’s increasingly assertive foreign policy as it seeks to transform Turkey into a geopolitical force across the region.
However, Turkey’s effort to insert itself into the conflict may backfire, said Richard Giragosian, director of the Center for Regional Studies, a group of experts based in Yerevan. Siding with Azerbaijan could push the young Armenian government, which came to power after a popular revolt in 2018 and has tried to create some distance from Moscow, back to the full embrace of Russia.
“The danger of Turkey’s military alliance with Azerbaijan would be to force Armenia to become too dependent on Russia again,” said Giragosian. “It could also provide Russia with the opportunity to deploy peacekeepers in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, where it has had no military presence.” Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey are against the presence of the Russian forces. “
Turkey cut diplomatic ties and sealed its border with Armenia in 1993 to protest the war on Nagorno-Karabakh, which had an Armenian ethnic majority but is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. Under pressure from Azerbaijan, Erdogan in 2010 ended an initiative by the United States to re-establish Turkish ties to Yerevan.
The centennial genocide of up to 1.5 million ethnic Armenians in Turkey also haunts the two nations.
“As Turkey seeks a broader regional role, normalization with Armenia would improve Turkey’s position in the southern Caucasus,” said Giragosian. “But with this increase in hostilities, it only becomes more unsustainable.”
