LONDON – Never the post-Brexit trade talks, where every deadline seems imaginative and extensions seem endless, there is also a sense that Britain and the European Union – really and truly – are coming to an end.
Analysts say British and European parliamentarians need to ratify the trade agreement in a systematic way before the Brexit transition period ends on New Year’s Eve, with both parties needing to agree by Sunday.
That is not to say that Britain and the European Union will not be able to jam the deal in a more chaotic manner during the holidays. They also indicated that they would not be able to proceed beyond December 31 without making a deal: they could theoretically come to terms in early 2021 and put it in place after a few days of uncertainty.
But those scenarios would push both sides into restless territory, which analysts said neither wanted. Demonstrating what it might look like, trucks loaded with goods raced for 20 miles on the highway to the port in Dover on Friday, waiting for the continent to pass through Europe.
Partly if Britain and the European Union fail to reach a deal. The business was delayed by the business stocking the goods. Coming still like the ghost of Christmasmas, it would also erupt if both sides suddenly started imposing tariffs and other trade barriers that acted as even greater chaos.
The leaders resorted to harsh language. “It’s a moment of truth,” said Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator. “We have some time left – just a few hours.” “I have to say, things are looking difficult,” said Prime Minister Boris Jones. There are gaps that need to be bridged. “
With most of the negotiations behind them, however, British and EU officials will maneuver primarily for the strategic advantage in which the deal will be presented to the people concerned. Pulling a little longer negotiations will reduce the time that legislators have to examine the agreement.
This may be particularly important in Britain, where Mr Johnson must deal with his Conservative party’s fiercely pro-Brexit group that will be sensitive to evidence that the government supports Brussels and will provide a commitment to Britain’s sovereignty.
“It’s not really a question of going through this deal,” said Mujtaba Rahman, an analyst at Eurasia Group’s Political Risk Consultancy. “It simply came to our notice then. But the question is how will it pass? And how much will it stimulate the Prime Minister? ”
Mr. Johnson is already under intense pressure to handle the epidemic. The government has recently placed London and the south and east of the country at the highest level of sanctions. Officials have not ruled out imposing a third nationwide lockdown if the infection continues.
Although the British Parliament has taken a break, it could be called back to vote on the agreement.
In his final days, Mr Rahman and other analysts said the talks were largely about fishing quotas. Mr Johnson would like to win the right to fishing, something Britain has already done with more aggressive, but far-reaching issues of state aid and competition policy.
“Coastal sovereignty is much easier to understand than the awkward details of level-playing-ground rules,” Mr Rahman said.
Under the terms of Britain’s departure from the European Union in January, it has continued to adhere to the bloc’s rules for the past 11 months, while both sides try to push for permanent arrangements on trade and other issues. If they fail to agree, they will default to the terms of the World Trade Organization, which economists have warned could do permanent damage to the British economy.
Like phishing rights, truck lines are a tangible expression of those values. Even with deals, disruptions are likely to occur: many traders, for the first time in decades, will have to complete rims of custom declaration forms and take control to ensure British exports – especially food – comply with the EU’s sole market. .
Britain admits it is not fully prepared. It plans to introduce a new system gradually over a six-month period, with most trucks initially passing by when they land on the ferry. But if the ports of France are grilled, the disruption will soon spread to the British side, traxers stranded and the highway stuck.
For British traders, uncertainty is particularly frustrating as thorny issues have been largely resolved. For example, both parties have agreed in principle on the method of resolving disputes over fair competition rules. The European Union is concerned that Britain will allow its companies to adopt lower environmental and labor standards by reducing continental businesses.
Analysts said the only outstanding issue is whether the EU grant – as opposed to its individual nations – should be treated as state aid.
Negotiating fishing deals is more elusive, however, Britain’s neighbors, especially France, have been fighting for decades or centuries to keep their fishing access to British waters as accessible as possible.
Although Britain has agreed to phase out changes in the right to fishing over the years, the two sides have been at odds over that period. They are currently at odds over how much to hold in British waters should EU ships be allowed to be maintained.
Although economically insignificant, fishing is a politically charged issue on both sides of the English Channel as it is of crucial importance to many coastal communities. The standoff will prompt the Royal Navy to send patrol ships or ask French fishing boats to blockade ports in London.
“The UK has been able to regulate its own laws,” Mr Johnson said during a visit to a training center in the northwestern city of Bolton on Friday. “People voted for this. We have also been able to control our water and fishing rights. Clearly that is what people voted for. “
