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Scouts predicted last summer the NBA’s 2020 draft would apparently not lack star quality, but consensus no. 1 recruit James Wiseman was one of the few prospects named as a candidate to be elected first. Then one week after the college basketball season, he was ruled inaccessible to Memphis.
Some evaluators still saw a lot of talent from the limited college reps. “What did he do against Oregon? Fourteen points and 12 rebounds, and he didn’t even play the first half,” said one scout who was ready to buy Wiseman’s natural gifts.
Others had questions they were waiting for him to answer, and he could not just go through three games. “Buyer beware,” said another exec. “He’s very average.”
NBA front offices now have to rely on previous scouting and older tape from AAU, FIBA, the McDonald’s All-American Game, the Jordan Brand Classic and the Nike Hoop Summit. The possibility of no live workouts during an abbreviated predraft process means even more ambiguity as to where Wiseman developments are.
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How early is it too early to design a center?
The NBA continues to evolve. In 2013-14, 27 teams averaged more than 10 post-ups per game. This past season, only 10 teams averaged as many. Few crimes are committed through centers, unless that center is a high-level creator or passer-by.
Will that be Wiseman? If not, is it worth taking him in the top five (over guards and forward), where has it long been assumed he will go?
It is also worth noting that a handful of lottery teams are already investing in centers. While drafting the best available player is the usual mindset and practice, there is the fear of repeating the mistake of Orlando Magic when they used the No. 6 pick on Mohamed Bamba, just for him to to serve as backup behind Nikola Vucevic and to miss important reps for development.
Other than some great who were recently taken early – Years Jackson Jr., Marvin Bagley III, Jonathan Isaac, Zach Collins, Wendell Carter Jr. Wiseman can only play one position. He is a true center, lacks the skill set as perimeter movement to play forward as well. Only teams dat an upgrade could use at the 5 Wiseman will likely consider, what would limit his potential suitors–even more than Andre Drummond submits for 2020-21 and the Cleveland Cavaliers plan to sign him in the long run.
And why would the Golden State Warriors use a top pick at a center when he would be the fourth or fifth option? Could she not sign a relatively cheap free agent to do what Wiseman would be asked to do (work off) in a crime by his guards, wings and move forward?
Teams that are just looking for talent – the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards – may not care so much about setting up a center. But how high he is to choose depends on one’s confidence in his skill development.
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How confident should teams be in its development?
The draw for Wiseman comes from his spectacular physical profile: 7’1 “, 240 lbs, 7’6” winger. Plus, he can jump. NBA standouts WSO same measurements before her drawings included Joel Embiid (7’0 “, 240 lbs, 7’5” WS), Dwight Howard (6’10¼ “, 240 lbs, 7’4½” WS), DeAndre Jordan (6’11 “, 250 lbs, 7’6 “WS) and Hassan Whiteside (6’11½”, 227 lbs, 7’7 “WS), per NBA.com.
Where will Wiseman fall on that spectrum of large, strong, long centers? It will depend on his skill development, and at this point he does not appear close to where Embiid was at the same age.
The value of Wiseman is driven by his physical tools and bounce for lifting easy baskets. Of his 20 field goals scored at Memphis, 17 came from passing, putbacks, cuts or rolls, per Synergy Sports. He totaled one assist in 69 minutes.
He’s currently a rimrunner and finisher, and that’s good, because with his size and bounce he should continue to be with a high percentage of goal and cleaning man around the corner. But that will not be enough to justify the overall value of top-five.
How much can and will he improve his creation of shooting, shooting and passing?
In high school, he wanted to show that he could perform step-backs and take down three strokes. He is capable, but he is not adept at a particular skill. How reliable will his jumper look in his prime? How hard of a wrap will he work one-on-one from the elbow and short corners? Will he learn to draw double teams and challenge the open man?
As of today, between his lack of brushing and the way the NBA has changed, he does not project as to the type of scoring coach he will have. He will set up screens and dive, execute the floor and put misses back, but guards will not force him to make the ball, and he will not attempt to make many outside shots early in his career.
Looking at the main centers of the league, they each have some distinct strength beyond size and athletics. Embiid, LaMarcus Aldridge, Anthony Davis, Vucevic and Deandre Ayton have their go-to post games. Nikola Jokic adds special play. Karl-Anthony Towns has his three-ball. Montrezl Harrell brings untouchable energy. Bam Adebayo’s versatility controls boxes over the entire plate.
What could be Wiseman’s signature? Whiteside and Rudy Gobert do not have one on offense, but both have earned paid days for their edge protection.
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Can he be a defensive game-changer?
For dozens of NBA representatives from the entire league last April, Wiseman blocked six shots in the U.S. win at the Nike Hoop Summit, with his massive wing span to cover airspace and repel drivers. His tools create defensive potential, and becoming an effective frame guard is critical to his value, especially as his offensive skill development sputters.
But numbers for shots do not always equal equal defense defense, and there is ample evidence on Wiseman that shows dubious instincts and foundations. His reads in pick-and-roll coverage were never convincing. He is also envious of mistiming jumps, biting on fakes or lunging to exclude.
He does not project to change gears, and opponents will certainly try to pull him off the hoop and direct him into space.
Wiseman has the necessary physical traits to effectively anchor a team’s defense from the paint, but he has a lot of room to improve, and his value could plump if he did not.
Questions for Motor and Demeanor: Legit or Overblown?
Before they arrived in Memphis, Wiseman’s motor and intensity were in doubt. You did not always get the impression that he was all out. His behavior is on the calm side, which is not necessarily negative, but it can be a turnoff for certain coaches.
It was a critique that is perhaps exaggerated. It is possible that energy will be a complete non-issue and that it was simply a result of being young or having motivation in certain settings.
But for any scout who had any concerns, Wiseman did not get a chance to reduce them during his short stint at Memphis.
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Wiseman in the Draft
It looks like the Minnesota Timberwolves might be looking for a fit with Towns. The Atlanta Hawks traded just ahead of Clint Capela. Wiseman can not play with Ayton in Phoenix. And the Cavaliers got Drummond, probably with the intention of keeping him. Even the New York Knicks could show more interest in grabbing a point guard and developing Mitchell Robinson.
Wiseman will feature looks with mostly guards and wings – LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Deni Avdija, Killian Hayes, Isaac Okoro and Tyrese Haliburton. Teams with room to add size will also see Obi Toppin and Onyeka Okongwu.
Wiseman is physically more impressive than both, and he is roughly three years younger than Toppin, a superior score that wrestles defensively. Meanwhile, Okongwu averaged just 16.2 points and 2.7 blocks on 61.6 percent shots, and although he is not as tall (6’9 “) as Wiseman, he appears further in offensive moves, defensive impact and motor.
Okongwu soon became the number 1 big on my board. Traditional laws from above suggest that Wiseman may have more, but whether he unleashes it will depend on his skill development, defensive growth and level of involvement.
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