Photo credit: Steve Jurvetson – CC BY 2.0
It is not surprising that the first prize, or the blue ribbon, for exceeding 2 ° C above the baseline, goes to the Arctic with permafrost covering 25% of the northern hemisphere. Recognition has been long overdue, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has completely neglected it.
This crucial nugget of knowledge comes from a recent virtual science session (1:27 in duration) sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences.
The webcast is titled: Thawing Arctic Permafrost: Regional and Global Impacts, organized by John P. Holdren, Professor of Environmental Policy Teresa and John Heinz, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
The timing could not be better. The Arctic Circle has been very newsworthy. As such, people must ask themselves what to do with disturbing news that is disturbing, to the extreme.
According to Euronews, as of July 14th:
“The extreme north and beyond the Arctic Circle has registered record temperatures this year. On June 20, the Russian meteorological service recorded a peak of 38 ° C in Verkhoyansk, the highest temperature recorded since records began in the late 19th century. “
“This is contributing to the rapid melting of permafrost, the region’s frozen soil, on which many industrial construction sites and buildings are built, many for hydrocarbon extraction,” Ibid.
“The melting of the poles that act as temperature controls for atmospheric currents has consequences for the entire climate,” Ibid.
Decidedly, what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.
According to Professor Holdren: “Temperatures across the Arctic are rising 2-3 times faster than the world average … The Arctic will continue to be at the forefront of climate change.”
The first speaker on the virtual broadcast was Dr. Susan M. Natali, Associate Scientist and Director of the Arctic Program, Woods Hole Research Center, an Arctic ecologist who focuses on the ecosystem and the consequences of the carbon melt cycle of permafrost.
According to Dr. Natali, the Arctic temperature anomaly is already 2 ° C warmer than the long-term average. The consequences include the loss of sea ice, the melting of the Greenland ice sheets and the melting of permafrost.
The thawing of permafrost is monitored by drillings drilled to depths of 20 meters (66 feet) throughout the Arctic. Therefore, measured temperature changes avoid seasonal dynamics. These deep permafrost temperatures, in some cases, have been measured for up to 40 years. Results: Permafrost temperatures warm noticeably across the board, regardless of the season.
It is noteworthy that the permafrost of the northern hemisphere contains 1100-1500 billion tons of carbon in the form of ancient organic matter. For comparison purposes, this is twice the amount of carbon that already exists in the atmosphere, and is three times more carbon than in the world’s forest biomass.
An obvious implication of Dr. Natali’s statements is that humanity is playing with fire in a very big way by allowing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (cars, planes and trains, etc.) to go wild, increasing month to month. the decade with no end in sight, none at all. At some point, all of those billions of tons of carbon stored in frozen permafrost will begin to lose beyond normal background rates and humanity will find its cooked goose, perhaps well done.
According to Natali, permafrost carbon emissions are not included in the IPCC’s global carbon budget that is aiming for 2 ° C or less, preferably below 1.5 ° C. Well, maybe a suddenly overheated Arctic will lead to an eventual recalculation of how The IPCC observes and calculates the carbon budget. Better late than never.
And here is the harrowing part (one of many): Field work by scientists showed that permafrost is already a “net CO2 emitter”, this after thousands of years as a “carbon sink”, but now no! As such, thousands of years from one of the largest carbon sinks on Earth were erased by the recklessness of man-made overheating ecosystems.
Not only that, according to Natali, thawing permafrost is only equivalent to ~ 25% of the IPCC’s allowable emissions to stay below 1.5 ° C. However, the IPCC does not include permafrost in its carbon budget, which it means there is a very unpleasant surprise in the future for the rah-rah climate mitigation crowd.
The second virtual speaker was Katey Walter Anthony, aquatic ecosystem ecologist and professor at the University of Alaska / Fairbanks Water and Environmental Research Center.
Dr. Anthony has done field work across Russia with a lot of work in Siberia (a greenhouse today). His research focuses on thermokarst, lake formation, and greenhouse gas methane.
According to Dr. Anthony, current climate models in the world do not include carbon emissions from Thermokarst lakes. However, they abound in millions of thermokarst lakes that expand and release methane throughout the Arctic.
Not only that, but permafrost soils contain 1500 gigatons of carbon, which, according to Dr. Anthony, equates to 150 years of fossil fuel emissions under current conditions. Imagine spinning losing a considerable fraction of that carbon. Once again, nation / state carbon emissions mitigation plans are unlikely to meet their professed goals.
Field tests on Thermokarst lakes are carried out by lowering a bubble trap into the water to trap microbial methane seeps as the methane bubbles throughout the year. Bubble traps exist in more than 300 lakes throughout the Arctic.
It was 14,000 years ago, when the weather warmed up, when the permafrost thermokarst lakes burst into the landscape, causing a warming of 4 ° C over a period of 8,000 years. Today, according to Dr. Anthony, similar warming to 4 ° C is likely to occur in just 80 years, in stark contrast to 8,000 years in the paleoclimatic record. Obviously, without her saying so, it implies a climate system that is on the really big turbocharger training wheels.
“We are on the threshold of a sharp change in permafrost carbon emissions.” (Antonio)
Mercy! And, all those mitigation plans of 195 nations, but did they ever really take off? The truth is that the emissions rise without rest, to satiety. So, questioning who is seriously looking at the store.
John Holdren wrapped up the virtual session: We are probably seeing 80 to 100 gigatons of carbon released from permafrost during this century. In turn, this takes a big bite out of the global carbon budget. According to Dr. Holdren, that prospect adds to an increase in global temperature, to date, from 1.1 ° C to 1.2 ° C above the baseline.
Permafrost, which is not included in the global carbon budget by the IPCC, could add 25% to 40%. That is a huge problem that lends itself to big problems in the future. What should a nation do in the midst of carbon emission mitigation plans?
However, Dr. Holdren, who co-chaired the President’s Council of Science and Technology Advisers, says it is still possible to mitigate enough to keep temperatures at 2 ° C. But at a cost of ~ 3% of World GDP. Ahem! Furthermore, he almost apologized for suggesting that the blow to civilization for not mitigating would far exceed that cost, which is 3% of $ 85T or a whopping $ 2.55T (that’s billions). Hello, is anyone out there?
Meanwhile, after years of wringing hands and shedding tears from green sympathizers, the world is still 80% dependent on fossil fuels, a fact revealed by Dr. Holdren at the end of his presentation. That is very worrying.
It is the same 80% as it was 50 years ago and a clear sign of utter failure by governments around the world and a resounding failure of the IPCC to fully implement / organize / promote their heavenly plans for ’15 Paris to save the planet. It is shameful!
Regarding the final questions / thoughts through the virtual webcast:
According to Dr. Anthony: The Arctic Sea of Eastern Siberia is a place where “we have seen a large number of CH4 releases.”
The following was not discussed in Internet streaming: Temperatures were recently 30-34 ° C (86-93 ° F) in the Arctic Sea Region of Eastern Siberia (ESAS), the region of which is equivalent in size to Germany. , France, Great Britain, Italy and Japan, and with 75% of the area in 50-80m, shallow water, allowing quick and easy release of CH4 from underwater permafrost without oxidation. Drilling by other scientists has uncovered huge amounts of frozen methane and a remarkable thinning of the underwater permafrost. Reliable sources that closely follow CH4 emissions in the ESAS region are of the opinion: “It may be out of control.” But, it is important to note that it is anecdotal information.
Also, perplexingly, the heaviest season for methane release into the atmosphere has just begun.
To make matters worse, on top of the world, the Arctic Ocean sea surface temperatures, which at this time of year are typically 0.3 ° C (32 ° F), were recently 12 ° C (54 ° F) ). That is downright creepy!
Postscript: Scientists have identified the first active methane gas leak in Antarctica, announced on July 22.North Dakota, discovered by researchers led by Andrew Thurber / Oregon State University, who commented, “I find it incredibly concerning.” (Source: Andrew R. Thurber, et al, Riddles in the Cold: Antarctic enntarmism and microbial succession impact the methane cycle in the Southern Ocean, The Royal Society, July 22, 2020).
Speechless!
