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“Trinity” Shows Expensive Thai Stocks Traded on P / E 17.6 times, but the correction is still difficult to see. The May index will move from side to side. Down under 1150-1350 points. And suggest to those who want to invest during a high valuation like this, buy stocks with 3 unique personal factors. Suggested wait to buy in late June or the second quarter has passed.
Mr. Natthat Mekmasasin Deputy Managing Director Securities Analysis Department Trinity Securities Company Limited He revealed that the stock market last month May 2020 There is a possibility of shortening after the index rises to trade at the advance level. P / E at 17.6 times Which is also higher than the previous year’s level Therefore, in terms of valuation, Thai stocks are considered very expensive. This situation is more suitable for short-term investment. Let the index frame have 2 levels of support. It is at 1200 points and then at 1150 points. Resistance is estimated at 1350 points.
As for medium and long-term investments, wait to buy at the end of the month. Jun or Second Quarter Has Passed Because You Estimate The Stock Market Has The Opportunity To Tighten The Base Again After the End Of The Short Sale, Measure Only At A Price Higher Than The Final Transaction Price Or “Increase Rule”
“This measure has a very strong impact. Resulting in the short sale value reduced to 1 billion baht per day instead of 5 billion baht per day While the bulk commercial transaction itself reduces the volume of the contract per day from 3,500 thousand contracts to 1,100 contracts per day Therefore, since mid-March Henceforth, I hardly see the stock indices drop to the 50-100 point per day level as in the previous period. “
Natchat said that the investment strategy for May is to introduce 3 topics consisting of 1. Refinery groups Due to the results of the first quarter of the year. And a more positive view on oil prices after technical problems in the oil market began to decline. Recommend Thai Oil (TOP), Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC) and Bangchak Corporation (BCP).
“We believe that the price of crude oil should not plummet as in the past because the last fund The USO in the United States has adjusted its new oil contract holdings from the original short-term contracts by more than 80%, shifting to more multi-contract contracts and reducing model contracts by just 30%, thereby reducing the pressure on oil prices during the Rollover period. Go a lot “
2 commercial banks The share price has almost fully reflected the operating results for 1Q20. Recommend Bangkok Bank (BBL) shares as there is a possibility that it will return to the MSCI index to be announced on May 12. this
3. Stock groups that Trinity has the potential to be selected for the next round of SET50 index calculations such as TTW and Banpu Poder (BPP) stocks
Nattachat said that according to statistics from the last 20 years (2000-2019), the majority of the months in May of each year is the period in which the baht depreciates. Since foreign investors who come to invest and receive dividends will take the money abroad. But from the statistics of 20 years ago there is no significant difference that foreign investors sell shares in May. And the SET index will have to adjust this month anyway.
What do you think about this?
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