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Gold price trends shine brightly after the November 3 US presidential election, while most polls suggest Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump, which analysts hope to have. Positive for the gold market Bangkok Business invites you to read the factors that will make investors in gold. More cheers for Biden than Trump.
United States Presidential ElectionComing in a few days While political tensions in the US remain high. This atmosphere has caused volatility in the money market. For the dollar Commodities and equity markets face uncertainty.
Meanwhile The impact of the elections on gold is an ongoing problem. Investors know it. The value of the dollar in relation to the price of gold. If the dollar is solid it will make the price of gold go down. But if the dollar is weak, the price of gold will go up.
Even some analysts believe that ifPresident Donald TrumpWin the election, the dollar will appreciate and ifJoe bidenWin the elections, the dollar will weaken. But no one can decide 100%, and the results after November 3 may turn out the opposite.
– Donald Trump (left) and Joe Biden (right), 2020 US presidential candidates –
Why thinkGold marketAnalysts seem to agree that If Biden wins the election it will have a positive effect on the price of gold. Which is considered the most aromatic asset of this year
- “Blue Wave” increased prices by 5%
AnalystJP Morgan Expected The price of gold will rise up to 5%. If the case “Blue Wave” thatDemocratsHe occupies a majority of both the House of Commons and Biden, who represents Democrats. He won the elections as the new president of the United States.
“In the case of the Democrats who sweep in the seats of the upper and lower houses, gold will skyrocket another 2-5% amid pressure from the weak dollar and lower returns on equities.” Natasha Kaneva, JP Morgan Gold Analyst specify
The price of gold continued to rise this year. Because investors flock to buySafe assets To escape the turbulence of the stock market The result of a large outbreak ofCOVID-19 Worldwide
In August, gold prices also hit an all-time high, hitting $ 2,075 an ounce. But after that, it fell steadily to nearly $ 1,880 on October 30.
The market awaits If Biden wins the election it will create a tremor in the market. Because investors will respond negatively toBiden’s campaign policy announced that he would collect taxes and introduce measures. More rigid
JP Morgan analyst sees that In this case, the price of gold will increase. Because when the stock market falls instead, investors will turn to safe assets.
- Results can be printed on 3 pages.
When Trump won the 2016 election, the stock market rebounded strongly. But gold prices fell as low as $ 104 an ounce through November. This was the month the elections were held and the results were counted until the election results were known.
For this reason, if Trump is defeated in this election campaign, the US stock markets will collapse. But it will support the increase in the price of gold
However, post-election events may not happen suddenly. This year, the US stock market is experiencing an unprecedented rebound. This was due in large part to huge stimulus packages from the government and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, if there is additional stimulus from Washington, the stock market may continue to rise for a while.
Trend partThe results of this year’s US presidential elections can be issued in three ways.
– Joe Biden, Democratic candidate for president of the United States –
1. Biden overwhelming victories Democrats dominate the majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
2. Biden won, but the Democrats were the minority in the Senate and took power in the lower house.
3. Biden lost the presidential election to Trump. That he will continue to lead the country for a second term
- Is “gold” an interesting asset?
Adjunct Professor Dr. Boontham Rajit Pinyolert Economist and columnist “Corner Thinking Banking” In bangkok Expected In general, after November 3, the US stock market is likely to be in a very uncertain position. YIf a lawsuit arises about the election results, the stock market would probably go down quite strongly. But it will have a positive effect on the price of gold, which will now become a more attractive asset.
Dr. Boontham gave two reasons why gold will become an attractive asset: 1. Although Biden won People will have to look for a safe asset to have in their wallet. Institutional investors especially will need to find safe assets to avoid the uncertainty of Biden’s policy in the capital markets. Therefore it is likely that more gold spoons will be bought
Y 2. Obviously, Trump himself would not allow Biden to win easily. Therefore, an opportunity to prosecute is highly likely if Biden wins. And the prosecutions will sink the dollar. From the severe lack of confidence And the price of gold should rise to accommodate this uncertainty. Therefore, it is considered that after November 3, there is a high probability that gold will look attractive in terms of investment opportunities.
Dr. Boontham hopes the big picture is decided that (The only exception is Trump winning a decisive election, which doesn’t seem like much). The rest of the scenario indicates that “gold” is going to be a promising asset towards the end of the year.
- Earn through resistance $ 1,934.
YLG Bullion and Futures Company Limited (YLG) Estimate that If Biden wins the election The market is expected to have a positive effect on gold prices and lead to further increases. The stock market is expected to decline. And the dollar will weaken
On the other hand yeahTriumphWinning an election Will make the stock rally stronger The dollar appreciates AND pressure the price of gold to decline
Ms. Thipa Navawatthanasup, CEO of YLG Look at Some of Trump’s policies may be positive for gold. Because during the past year there is a policy of trade war that generates uncertainty. Cause investors to also turn to rest their money on the gold market
but nevertheless Ms Thipa sees that in the short term, if gold prices still can’t get past resistance at $ 1,934 an ounce. You also have to watch out for price weakness. The first support looks at $ 1,885-1,881 an ounce.
“If you can stand up, there is still a chance to swing and test resistance. And if the price passes the resistance $ 1,934 an ounce It will give the general picture a more positive outlook “
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refer: Financial news, Valuing the markets, Financial express, HOSTAL,
