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The mob of the Popular Party, October 14, does not lower the ceiling, be careful where strength becomes weakness.
On October 10, 2020 at 6:24 PM
By … Chai Rit Yon Piem
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If there was no violent situation before or during the demonstration, it is believed that a large concentration of people on behalf “People’s Party” October 14 will be a few days. There may be no more mass than the last two great gatherings at the Democracy Monument and Sanam Luang.
The mob leader’s side is confident that this rally will be more powerful than ever, using the symbolism of the 1973 student victory to oust the dictator of Field Marshal Thanom Kittichkachon from the leadership chair. But from the current assessment so far it doesn’t seem as intense as it should be. Of many factors
The announcements of the leaders of the mafia on Thursday (October 8) reflect that the mafia knows its weaknesses. And try to improve if the Anon announcement led to the mob leader who from now on uses a step-by-step strategy. Eat rice one bite at a time As if aware of the criticism that In the past, the mafia lacked a wide range of alliances because it expanded its roof to meet a demand for monarchical reform. It does not focus on political issues that are likely to be common ground to attract various groups of people. Who will have more power to pressure the government
But what is advertised, let’s eat one word at a time and what is it seems to go against
That is, the demands of the Popular Party The new demands were changed, that is, on behalf of the People of Liberation group, there were 3 elements: 1. Draft a new constitution, 2. dissolve parliament and 3. stop harassing the people. But this time it is 1. General Prayut Chan-o-cha has to resign as Prime Minister. Open extraordinary session to accept the draft constitutional reform 3. Reform the institutions to return to democracy.
What is added is Carry out the reform of the monarchy in one of the three requirements of the original “10 dreams” The falling part is “Stop harassing people”
The priority reflects that Mafia Administrator “Anon-Mike-Rung” Raise the level of pushing the monarchy reform to a proposal for society and government. Never mind “Dream” Which he had to keep a secret as before, and surprisingly, the leaders had left a request to stop harassing people Even though they are fundamental rights and freedoms And finding a coalition is not difficult
At the same time, the name changes from “Liberated people”Become “People’s Party” It reflects the identity of the organizers of the rally that emphasized the concept of reforming the monarchy as a flag, led by a Popular Party wheel that changed government in 1932
but “Strength” Where the mainstay of a mighty mob could become “weakness” In itself due to the introduction of institutional reform With the original 10 proposals, although honestly said, it is considered a certain level of danger in Thai society. You can stand up and speak openly and in a broad But use this issue to push the masses to push for change of institutions It is not a magnet to unite to oust the government rather than bring the stomach problem The impact of the COVID crisis, unemployment Delayed budget disbursement As a problem for the government administration to wake up the rallies
Or even the problem of solving the constitution of the government that the senator does not solve to establish a constitutional assembly while the prime minister, General Prayut Chan-o-cha, performs a parody drama. Let the Palang Pracharat Party pull the game, do not vote to amend Section 256 of the Constitution, establish the Civil Service Commission despite social acceptance. Finally, a committee was established to study the draft constitutional reform. It is still likely. It will drag on to create another level of construction by proposing a referendum. Before members of Parliament can vote on the principles of constitutional amendments. Probably the main driving point in the mob stage.
Unfortunately, mob leaders don’t take these points as they should. Especially the amendments to the constitution that already stated that If the mob is weak, when? The government is ready to pull the game. Not fixed then It should be noted that after the parliamentary meeting prepared to vote on the amendment of the constitution last month The majority of the government successfully played the game. But the leader of the student mafia did not continue to invade this matter. Make the subject of constitutional amendments in the game that the government can control
The dream of a vocal mafia is Institutional reform is a precarious issue with much opposition and disagreement. But the confirmation that Everything must be successful “Feudalism, be destroyed. Pracharat Chongcharoen “ It must end in our generation. It may be a lost dream. Because some problems are related to the long-standing political institutional structure It is faith, culture, identity, not having to press a button to achieve what you want.
Going back to the Popular Party mafia, October 14, 2020 Another thing that can reduce the level of concentration is Friends who used to fight Support for the student mafia such as Pheu Thai party has started to withdraw despite But I did not ask for connection as at the beginning.That is the Restructuring result of the Pheu Thai Party that Khunying Pojaman Damapong Former wife Thaksin Shinawatra took on a new system of work and tactics aimed at vetting the government in council rather than exiting the parliamentary game. Amid rumors that Elites send signals to request services from the Pheu Thai Party in hopes of isolating crowds of students Because the more this government is The student mafia grows even more, without letting the group members lead groups of red shirts as the basis of original sound I went to a rally with student mobs like in the rally on September 19, where there were more masses of red shirts from other provinces. Young people in the city
This analysis has yet to be observed if this rally on October 14 can have the answer until The role of the Pheu Thai Party and the student mafia How have they changed Will the masses of red shirts from other provinces participate?
In other words, it must be said that the demands of the mafia of October 14 seem light and contradictory to the previous time. 1. Make General Prayut renounce the original call for the dissolution of parliament because if “Big Tu” resigns This group of senators can still choose to return the candidate for prime minister. But believe There is no way General Prayut will resign or dissolve parliament due to the tools of renewal.
2. The proposal to open the Extraordinary Council to advance to the vote on Amendment 256 to the Constitution was too light. Because the government can defend that in another 16 days or on November 1 it will open the Ordinary Council and invite to avoid the danger, the president of the National Assembly has already accepted that it will take into account the amendments of article 256 to the Constitution, including the Ilaw’s draft.
If the mob leader demands to be intense and serious, that is, if the council opens on November 1, Big Tu and Sen have to move forward to vote on the Section 256 amendment bill to establish the foundation immediately. Probably the power of the October rally Y will be a solution to open the door to the solution of the real political conflict. But if you move with too big a goal Regardless of the real situation A formidable student movement that will likely raise the awareness of young people. It can erode without the government doing much.
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