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The economy of the year ”64 is full of uncertainty. “The president of the Thai Bankers Association” evaluated the first half of the year, faced a tough battle. New round of COVID drags everything for a long time Encourage vaccine aid “TMB” estimates that the state does not block, GDP 3.7%. “Export-Consumption”, the main driver Travel has not recovered. The investment has to depend “Large – foreigners” “Krungsri” watches the government measures, fearing that the “work” has affected the new wave of layoffs.
Year ”64, the uncertainty is greater.
Mr. Phayong Srivanich, President Krung Thai Bank As the President of the Thai Association revealed “Prachachat Business”, the outlook for the Thai economy in 2021 remains uncertain and highly volatile. An important factor must also be followed by the policy of the new president of the United States. This was followed by a factor in the COVID-19 vaccine. When to come AND how evenly distributed In addition, we consider how quickly economic restructuring can be accelerated.
“Next year’s economy is still very uncertain. Especially during the second quarter, the second half of the year should be clearer. If there is a vaccine, it will be stable. I am not afraid that COVID will affect economic activity. But if there’s no vaccine yet, you’re still worried about a blockage. Because the country is like that. Even if the country were opened, trips abroad would not exist. Because even if he travels around the province he still changes his mind “
Mr. Yong said that If the vaccine is clear After this, Thailand should accelerate the country’s economic restructuring. How quickly it can be done is a challenge. In the past, the Thai economy was concentrated in the export and tourism sector. Many export supply chain industries have changed, for example, electric vehicles that transformed the entire supply chain into “uncertainty” about the “uncertainty” to follow.
“Before the new coronavirus outbreak that started in Samut Sakhon province” 64, the government intends to proactively accelerate investment. We have to wait and see that we may have to drift away for at least 1-2 quarters. At first we thought the roads would be smooth, but they fell again. A new outbreak in the country has slowed everything down. The economy has long been stretched to the stomach, ”Phayong said.
GDP does not drop 3.7%
Mr. Naris Sathaphondecha, Head of the TMB Analysis Center, told “Prachachat Business” that if the new wave of COVID-19 is not so severe, the country should be blocked again. The Thai economy in 2021 is estimated to expand 3.7% from a projected contraction of -6.7% in 2020, only half of which it recovered.
Looking at the main economic drivers in 2021, exports are expected to gradually recover. Exports are expected to grow 4.3% from a negative point in 2020, where the electronics sector continues to grow well. However, including agricultural products and food, we need to keep an eye on how foreign countries view Thai seafood. After the last outbreak
At the same time, private consumption will be another engine of the Thai economy. By the end of 2020, domestic car purchases had rebounded to the same as before COVID, with sales of 7.9 thousand cars per month in November. From a few months to 30,000 cars per month
“Year 2021, if there is no lockdown Consumption is likely to return quite well, with 3.2% from 2020 to minus 1.4%, which is half of the Thai economy. Because the Thai economy now has to depend more But if the outbreak has grown so large that it must be blocked, he will have to lower his forecast for economic growth. But believe that the government will handle it by trying not to block “
Mr. Naris said As for the tourism sector this year, it still has not recovered much. Because the trip will not return as before It is estimated that foreign tourists will probably return less than 8 million people, the official estimate. While tourism income will still be affected From the previous income of foreign tourists 1.9 trillion baht per year AND domestic tourists 1.1 trillion baht per year
“Pyme” still persists to pay off the debt
Private investment is likely to turn slightly positive from negative 10% in 2020, with the return of foreign direct investment (FDI) and large companies in Thailand starting to reinvest. The SME business group has seen no signs of investment. Because I still have to struggle with debt restructuring
“Investment must be deposited in large individuals. With foreign investment SME is still tired. Need to accelerate debt restructuring to survive. Who will go next, who will take a break? Who will help? Because resources are limited This means that not everyone will be able to provide the same assistance. It would have reached a point that must be chosen While SMEs have to adapt What you do not need, you need to cut, sell, cut, reduce unnecessary expenses. Mr. Naris.
Year “64, depending on the new round of COVID.
While Mr. Piti Tantakasem Executive Director Thai Military Bank (TMB) said that the economic direction in 2021 will be based on the new coronavirus outbreak if activities are properly controlled. He believes that the general economy is still possible But if the lockdown was pressed completely like the previous round It will not be worth it That he is not encouraged to do that
However, if the infection can be controlled and maintained at a stable level By selecting activities that can and cannot be carried out, such as commercial activities Eating out It is an activity that should not be stopped. To help a circular economy Like concerts, festivals, seminars with large gatherings can be canceled. Although stopping certain activities will affect some businesses, such as the hospitality industry, which are already tiring more. Rather, it is a life-saving organ.
Shocked by a new wave of workers
Somprawin Manprasert, Head of the Research Division and Chief Economist Bank of Ayudhya told “Prachachat Business” that the main driving force of the Thai economy in 2021 is still mainly from the “export sector”, while the domestic factor, which must being watched is “consumption” despite expansion. But a fragile expansion Because it did not expand from all income groups Where people with high incomes grow faster And the groups that will benefit will be those of the export industry. But the service sector is still heavy and very vulnerable.
However, in the situation of a new outbreak If there is a severe blockage and a cessation of economic activity, it will affect workers. This will affect income and there is a risk that workers will have lower income and loss of employment. The labor market continues to be monitored in 2021 and how widespread the lockdown measures will be.
“Make economic policy We have to see how much we can respond to the situation. In the past, we have seen a policy of support to the purchasing power of people through the transfer of money or” half “, which after this has to wait and see the employment deferral policy. Employment support Because this is a policy that should be done more If there is an activity lock, “said Somprawin and said
This year, companies still need liquidity to maintain and sustain their businesses during the temporary shutdown. Or support themselves during periods of different income The Bank of Thailand (BOT) may not need to cut the policy interest rate. But it allows the corporate sector to have access to liquidity on-site It will be more important than reducing interest (pages 1, 4)
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