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End of US presidential election Each office voted “Joe Biden”, the Thai private sector to win the American policy to change the polarity Watch for Biden return the CPTPP, Kasikorn Research Center hopes the economy Recover faster under new leadership: Trade war calm but not over Thailand benefited from US export growth in 64 12%
The reporter reported that the US presidential campaign reached its final turn before the November 3 election, and most polls said that the popular vote for Democratic candidate Joe Biden had the upper hand. Trump, “the US presidents of the Republican Party are about 8-9%.
For Thailand The US market is the main export market with 14.7% share in 2019, Thailand exported 31,348 million US dollars and in the first 9 months Exports to the US were $ 25,358 million, an increase of 7, 4% compared to the same period last year. This is one of the few export markets that can grow in contrast to the Thai export market in general. The United States is also a country that offers 2,672 tariff incentives (GSP) to Thailand.
America returns to the rules of the world.
Mr. Pornsilp Patcharinthanakun The president of the Thai Feed Mill Association said the big picture if Biden wins the election. The kind of international trade policies Trump has used will cool the heat. As for the export and import of soybean meal, it should be more beneficial. But if the election result is reversed from the Trump poll, it will lead to more serious trade measures. Because it is considered the last days Thailand runs the risk of being forced to buy soybeans from the United States. To not use any commercial measure
The trade war is not over.
Mr. Sanan Angubolkul, Vice President of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Thai Chamber of Commerce said there is a chance that Biden will win. Trump’s control of the COVID epidemic has lowered popular ratings. That if Biden wins the election, the United States will continue to wage a trade war with China. You can simply lift the American First policy and move on to raising taxes on top American businessmen.
For Thailand, you can benefit later this year. The United States prepares to cut GSP duties on Thai products if it changes parties Policy of change The CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Pacific Economic Partners) has a chance to return to negotiations, however, Thailand has to find your own conclusions about whether to participate or not.
“But you still can’t be careless Trump may have had a new strategy in the final turn. Making it possible to win an election That if he wins he wins The implementation of trade measures policies will definitely be more severe. Thailand has to be careful because the first nine months exports to the United States have expanded, the trade balance of the United States has been attentive to the policy of intervention of the Thai baht. Because before this, it had already used this measure against Vietnam. “
Biden wades into CPTPP
Dr. Ratchada Chiasakul, CEO of Bolliger & Company Limited, who studied CPTPP, said that if Biden wins the election Although the US stance on China has not disappeared. But the interest in ASEAN and Thailand will be more positive. Especially Thailand Biden sent a signal through the Democratic Party Platform that he would accelerate his relationship with Thailand.
Regarding the policy of international trade negotiations It is “very likely” that the United States will return to the CPTPP negotiations after Trump withdrew from the talks.
“If Democrats win Will focus on rules Environmental, labor and hygiene standards, which Thailand should prepare to raise standards for the production of goods and services”
The private sector to maintain GSP rights
Miss Kannaphak Tantipipattanaphong The Chairman of the National Council of Transporters of Thailand (SorTor) said that the chances of Mr Joe Biden winning the election are high. Who sees that trade policy will be a good path. Because Biden is important to establish business relationships with the world AND an opportunity for Thailand to negotiate the maintenance of GSP privileges
In addition, it is considered to create business opportunities. Thai Competition Because if Mr. Joe Biden really wins, America has a chance to become a member of the CPTPP.
But if Trump wins the election, they will continue to move toward America First and possibly “increase intensity” than ever before.
Biden encourages the US economy to recover.
Dr. Chao Kengchon, Chairman of the Executive Committee The Kasikorn Research Center revealed that if the elections are successful, Mr. Joe Biden wins the elections as the new president of the United States. And Democrats dominate both the upper and lower houses. It will affect the US economy Including the Thai economy is quite different Compared to the case if Mr. Donald Trump wins the Kasikorn Research Center, evaluate the case if Joe Biden is the new leader Will make the US economy come back in 2021 to recover by at least 3.0%, while if Donald Trump wins, the US economy is expected to grow less than 2.0%, but one still needs to be cautious. Should Mr. Biden Win America’s budget deficit will be higher than Trump’s. Because the expense policy will increase
Thailand received a growing advantage for export.
While the impact on the Thai economy will depend on the economic recovery of the United States if Joe Biden is the new leader. The US economy is expected to expand better. Will affect the demand for consumer products These are the main Thai exports to the US such as computer equipment and components, rubber products, processed seafood. As a result, Thai exports to the US in 2021 have a good chance of expanding by 10-12% with about $ 36.700 to 37.3 billion expected from 2020 to expand by 6, 4%, but if you switch to Donald Trump, Thai exports can grow below 5%.
Dr. Chaow said that the indirect effect would be the business climate. Especially in the case of a trade war with China. If Trump wins, maybe another round of tax increases. Which will also affect Thai products because it is the supply chain of Chinese products. But if Biden wins He assessed that there should be no stress measures Although trade protection measures were not abolished in a short time.
4 view of the US election results
Mr. Tim Lee Haphan, Standard Chartered Bank economist (Thai) said that there are four perspectives on the US elections: 1. If Joe Biden wins the elections Although the practice with China will improve But I think the pressure on China will exist. But other methods will be used, but they won’t be used for a while. Because Biden should focus on solving COVID-19. First of all
2. If Trump wins the election You will see more Chinese tax collection But what I want to keep in mind is that in the last four years, the country that has benefited from the trade war between the United States and China is Vietnam, which has seen a massive relocation of their production bases in Vietnam. So if Trump comes along, Vietnam is likely to continue to benefit. The question is, how can Thailand make investments in Thailand?
China is more important to Thailand than the United States.
3. The US elections do not have a direct impact on Asia. It doesn’t matter who comes but Asia and Thailand will be affected by the main character like China. What is important is the distance ahead China is increasingly dependent on domestic purchasing power and technology. This is most beneficial for Thai and regional production chains.
4. Asia and Thailand are highly dependent on foreign trade and investment. Whoever wins is in the negotiation opportunities. Over the past four years under the Trump presidency, trade negotiations and investments have been found to have many obstacles. Who sees that if Biden gets the title These obstacles should have a better signal.
“We put weight on points 1-3 because it will affect Thailand a lot. Especially countries that benefit from trade protectionism If we are not the clear winners in the next four years, how are we going to keep up with Vietnam? Money-wise, it may be how many people predict it is. Trump is against the weak baht, but if Biden comes, the Thai baht will appreciate it. “ Tim said.
Support for cash flows to Asia
While Mr. Thakrit Chat Cherdsak Research Assistant Manager Asia Plus Securities Co., Ltd. said that the stock and money market popularity index leaned towards “Joe Biden” and that the Democrats may have won both the Senate and the House of Representatives. If it is according to the survey and the expected research department Economic policy remains the same as that of the Republicans, that is, international trade policy. Which China will continue to be excluded from trade?
In terms of capital flows (cash flows), money flows from the US to Europe and Asia. In countries with good economic growth such as China, Vietnam or TIP (Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines), Thai economic growth may not recover very well compared to the group.
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