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The reporter reported that the Thai stock market index at 4:41 pm stood at 1313.55 points, minus 9.76 points or 0.74% with a turnover of 379 billion baht.
The factors expected to cause the index to fall. It comes from the news case of Mr. Don Nakornthap, Senior Director of Macroeconomics The Bank of Thailand (BOT) said that economic growth in 64 had a higher risk than this year. Especially if foreign tourists cannot return, as the BOT predicts that next year there will be 16 million foreign tourists, while the Ministry of Tourism and Sports has estimated 12 million, which is already very low.
Don said that next year will see the recovery of the external economic situation. But Taiyah has not yet recovered. So there is an important issue to consider: Governments and individuals must learn to live with the number of COVID-19 outbreaks. However, because many countries have been infected with a huge increase in the number of cases every day, it is not 0, so you have to live with that. Settakit activities should be normal.
While you are in Thailand, if the outbreak repeats AND allow all activities to disappear as the first command it will hit you hard, so you will have to find a way to learn to live with the situation that arises. In which the government sector must have a way to gain confidence Because I do not know when the situation will improve
“The opening of foreign tourists to travel in Thailand again This will be an important factor for the Thai economy to recover during the rest of this year and next. But it must be done with care Because if the COVID-19 outbreak is round 2 by the exposure of tourists It could make the country difficult again, ”Don said.
Don said the BOT will review its economic forecast in the month. September, which is expected to reduce the number of foreign tourists. But it must also include other economic factors that improve as well. Therefore, we cannot say whether the economy will improve or worsen. The most important factor is whether or not the second epidemic will occur.
For the Thai economy this year, there are two possibilities, if you look at the recovery in June – July 20, which is better than expected. But looking ahead, there is still great uncertainty. In particular, the number of foreign tourists, which the BOT originally expected this year will be 8 million, but the authorities estimated 6.7 million, missing about 1.3 million from the original forecast. Impact of economic growth (GDP) around 0.5%, as well as the risk of the second round of COVID-19, which the BOT has included in its forecast for the economy of the year 20 in this round.
In the event that the Kasikorn Research Center forecasts that GDP this year will contract by -10%, the BOT has taken that into account. According to the data, the first semester of the year is a negative 7%, if the economy for the entire year is negative 10%, the second semester will have to be negative 13%, contracting more than 2Q20, so there is only one factor that will take the Thai economy to that point. This is the second round of the COVID-19 outbreak that caused the closure of the closed city, in addition to these factors, at the moment it is not seen that the economy is going to go that deep.
