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Mr. Kiticharn Sirisuk-archa Senior Vice President of Retail Analysis CGS-CIMB Securities (Thailand) expects the Thai stock index to fall this morning. This echoed concerns over the dissolution of political demonstrations in the country on Friday. If you dig deeper, the index is likely to rebound. As a result, the overall adjustment may not be great due to positive outward sentiment. And most of the Asian stock markets are positive AND Dow futures that jumped more than 100 points in response to the advance of a new round of stimulus in the United States that Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to the measure becomes law before the November 3 presidential election.
Also, the national fund sold quite a few shares last week. Especially during Thursdays and Fridays With a total sales force of more than 4.1 billion baht, it is likely to return this week from the incoming positive externalities. Along with protests that stand out and may affect the country’s economic recovery. But it should be an image that the market has already perceived to some extent.
While this week, investors will be on the lookout for the Banking Group’s 3Q20 earnings announcement to be released. After TISCO Financial Group Plc. (TISCO) and Krungthai Card Plc. (KTC) announced better than expected. Especially in terms of asset quality. But we still have to keep an eye on NPL for the next period after the Bank of Thailand (BOT) moratorium expires on October 22 and the results of making an estimate. The status and performance of commercial banks under stress (Stress Test) will be published in October. If the Bank Group’s performance in 3Q20 and asset quality are not worse than expected. Bank stocks are poised to rally after a sharp drop in their share price. Also, if the stress test results come out, all banks will likely pass the criteria. Then you can pay dividends again if the BOT allows it. It will also be a positive factor for the Bank’s actions.
Ready for support at 1,220 and 1,200 points while resistance at 1,240 and 1,247 points.
Investment considerations
- The last New York Stock Exchange (October 16), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 28,606.31 points, rose 112.11 (+ 0.39%), the S & P500 closed at 3,483.81, rose 0 .47 (+ 0.01%) and the Nasdaq closed at 11,671.56. It decreased 42.31 points (-0.36%)
- Asian stock markets opened today, SSE composite index, Chinese stock market rose 14.74 points, NIKKEI 225 Japan stock market rose 133.06 points, Hong Kong stock market HSI index rose 178.64 points, the TAIEX index of the Taiwan stock market rose 52.95 points, the KOSPI index of the South Korean stock market rose. 11.39 points, FTSE STI, the Singapore stock market rose 7.53 points, the Malaysian stock market rose 3.37 points.
- The Thai stock market closed last (October 16, 20) 1,233.68 points, down 9.28 points (-0.75%).
- Net sales from foreign investors of 463.92 million baht on October 16, 20.
- WTI crude for delivery in November in the Nimex market closed for the last time (October 16, 20) closed at 40.88 dollars a barrel, 8 cents less or 0.2 percent.
- Singapore’s benchmark GRM index last closed (October 16, 20) at $ 1.39 / barrel.
- Thai baht opens at 31.19, stable trend Waiting for clarity of internal factors
- The BOT issued an announcement to order a bank to maintain debtor status until the end of year 63, hoping to have time to negotiate. Revenue receivable is not recovered. Open the way “Bank” to maintain the debt for another 6 months, no later than June 64 Suggest a potential debtor to return to normal debt payment. Dreaded if SMEs carry on with all 9.5 billion baht debt, which affects liquidity, bank fluctuations are 200 billion baht a year.
- Mr. Ronadon Numnon, Deputy Governor of Financial Institution Stability, BOT has signed a new policy guideline for the review of credit transactions of financial institutions. Which has been improved mainly for financial institutions to adapt to the environment. And capable of accurately reflecting credit risk in a timely manner, including the detection of weaknesses and the improvement of the deterioration of the quality of debtors from the beginning. Before becoming a distressed debtor or NPL AND help prevent the same problem from recurring to other debtors, scheduled to take effect January 1, 64
- Deputy Minister of Finance next year, the Thai economy drains water, GDP grows 5% and this year accepts COVID-19 poisoning. Strong impact to pressure the economy to negative 7.5%, willing to ask the IMF to increase the role of the country at risk After worrying about the ability to pay debts, many countries began to signal problems.
- PHPO prepares to meet with the Minister of Finance this week Propose to adjust the investment disbursement framework for state-owned companies in fiscal year 64, which will adjust the investment plan to increase more than previously established at 2.91 billion baht according to the policy that requires investment by state-owned enterprises to play a role in boosting the economy. And increase employment in the next year
- Mr. Thanit Sorat, Vice Chairman of the Council of the Employers Organization Thai Trader and Industry (ECON Thai) revealed that the employment trend of entrepreneurs is expected to remain in a recession following the economic direction at least until the first quarter of 2021 due to current rates in the manufacturing sector. Average capacity utilization remained at only 60.8%, although the improvement continued to be the rate of remaining capacity. Therefore, significant new hires affect COVID-19. Make employees adapt to the new path that will be presented
- Private sector offers “government-protester” negotiations to find a way out Don’t let politics worsen the economy, Thailand Chamber of Commerce feared third hand, creating dire situation Affects foreign investment, FTI hopes to discuss peace. Generate confidence in the future of the new generation While the foreign tower supports the negotiations The Civil Service Commission pointed out an emergency situation with high social costs. The president of the parliament Call the head of a political party Whipped the government and the opposition discuss the parliamentary platform through the crisis. Pheu Thai Chong opens an extraordinary meeting Modify the constitution and open a negotiating table
* Featured actions today
- PTTGC (Asia Wealth) recommends “Buy” with a target price of 58 baht, with an expected net profit for 3Q20 of 880 million baht, decreasing both qoq and yr. But the GRM AND aromatics spread is still weak. The earnings outlook for 4Q20 has recovered but remains fragile. The olefins business remains strong. The share price fell more than 12% since the end of 2Q20, while the company’s financial position remained solid. Make it interesting to invest
- TU (Krungsri) recommends “Buy” with a target price of 17.60 baht, after 3Q63 an expected net profit of 1.79 billion baht, an increase of 4% qoq and 30% yoy. Significantly
- JWD (Finansia Syrus) recommends a “Buy” target price of 10 baht, after forecasting a normal 3Q63 profit almost normal, + 46% QQ, -6% YY, and has continued to pick up momentum in 4Q20 and is the highest point. Expect a 63-19% YY gain before regaining + 22% YY in year 64, preferring the foundation’s long-term growth potential in many Asian countries. And logistics is the backbone of many companies. The stock price fell back to a key support at Bt7, causing the Upside to open wide. The share price traded at EV / EBITDA approximately 11.6 times lower than the historical average of 20 times.
