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Overall, China scored pretty good with a great partner role. Various investments Flow to ASEAN, many countries accept China to help stimulate the economy a lot. Since the COVID-19 epidemic, China has also become ASEAN’s largest trading partner. In the first quarter of 2020, China-ASEAN trade increased 6% over the same period last year, with a value of more than 4.35 trillion baht. Why is the ASEAN economy not contracting as strongly as the West or other countries? The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast an economic contraction of the United States of -8%, the EU -8.2%, the United Kingdom -8.4%, Japan -5.4% and India -5.6%.
That the negative growth of these countries Including the United States may indicate that ASEAN may not have to rely on major economic groups. These are to help recover the suffering of the economy at all.
But on the other hand, in the second quarter, China posted positive growth of 3.2%, which may be the only economic zone not to sink into this year’s economic recession. And it is possible that China will be able to pull ASEAN out of the economic recession hit by COVID-19. To destroy this ruin
If you look only at the economic figures, you should choose to stick with “China”, right?
Don’t be too quick to draw that conclusion.
Check out the results of the 2020 State of Southeast Asia survey conducted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, which surveyed more than 1,308 think tanks, politicians, businesses and NGOs from ASEAN member states found that 54% of the The United States chose the United States and more than 46% liked China.
But when looking at each country separately, China is supported by seven out of 10 countries: Brunei 69%, Cambodia 58%, Indonesia 52%, Laos 74%, Malaysia 61%, Myanmar 62% and Thailand 52%.
While the United States is supported by only three countries: 83% from the Philippines, 86% from Vietnam, and 61% from Singapore, the reasons the Philippines and Vietnam chose the United States are due to the South China Sea dispute.
Although the survey results are split side by side like this But if you really have to choose one side instead, there was an answer that
“There is no need to choose sides !!”
Former Indian Foreign Minister Shivshankar Menon expressed support for his tough position. And the strength of “ASEAN” in the Asia Briefing Live 2020, sees that “ASEAN does not have to choose anyone with” China “as the center. to see the central powers do more than just cooperate. And they have done it before. “
And unknowingly, “ASEAN” is transforming into a “Theater of conflict!”
Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar at the Center for Political Research The Politics Research Center, the Indonesian Institute of Science, emphasized that they have been trying to prevent Southeast Asia from becoming a controversial arena of two world powers. Why do we need to strengthen ASEAN?
In this view, Adjunct Professor Somchai Phakaphaswiwat International economic and political academics agree with the “Thairath Specialist Online News Team” that the ASEAN community does not merge to be The Supranational Union is also a little grouped country. Cooperation is not as strong as the European Union (EU).
But if asked if “China” will enter ASEAN further in the future?
Assistant Professor Somchai sees that “China is coming for sure!”
The reason is that the trade war between China and the United States has not yet been resolved. As a result, Chinese companies have to change nationality and the wages of ASEAN workers are cheaper than those of China in the future. And ASEAN will take on many roles In particular, it can be said that China will play a more important role in ASEAN.
But compared to “China”, will it be superior to the West?
Try to think of an image according to adjunct professor Dr. Somchai, who explains that The Great West was more competitive, America or Europe not only got worse, but the world changed. The United States and the West to some degree China recovered to some extent. But the difference persists Because the United States and the West continue to lead Especially in terms of technology.
So this could be the answer, either “America” or “China.” … there is no need to choose sides, this is ASEAN’s best policy. Especially the ASEAN countries that have a balance from the United States. It also benefited from Chinese investment that escaped the trade war.
Although “ASEAN” does not have to choose a side, “China” would like to choose a side.
What does that mean?
In addition to strengthening economic relations between ASEAN What China hopes is Sovereignty over the waters of the South China Sea With the United States it is a great thorn, so in this moment of kidnapping the 46th president of the United States, China has high hopes. That secretly encourages “Joe Biden” to win!
Why does China want Joe Biden to win the US presidential election?
It would have to go back to when Barack Obama was president of the United States and Joe Biden was vice president, at that time, China successfully gained control of the South China Sea.
In 2013, China undertook land reclamation efforts in the South China Sea. At first it was done slowly. And be careful when assessing the Obama-Biden administration’s attitude. Shipping dredgers to Johnson South Atoll In the Spratly Islands China it took less than four months to build an 11-hectare island guarded by Chinese warships.
When China was sure that Obama-Biden Executive Board There was no serious answer. It started moving again Building more islands, claiming that the resilience of these lands is for peaceful coexistence, such as fishing and energy exploration … But subsequent satellite images showed that the islands built by China include runways, piers, hangars, radar and sensor equipment, and a military shed.
But as always … Obama-Biden Executive Board showed no particular reaction. It also does not prevent China from trying to expand its territory over the South China Sea. Until it turns into a serious dispute between China and ASEAN countries like the Philippines and Vietnam.
Until the arrival of a Donald Trump administration that halted China’s expansion into the South China Sea.
The Trump administration backed the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that raised a claim against the waters of the South China Sea in China, saying it was illegal. And it clearly violated the economic rights of the Philippines. And that also causes environmental damage to the coral reef under the sea. Not only did the Trump administration also send two aircraft carriers to waters near the South China Sea.
However, Biden may have opted for more aggressive rhetoric against China in the future. But China has chosen to look more to Biden’s modest past attitude.
So if Biden wins the US presidential election, China also believes that doing business together will be better than Trump, and Biden is hoping for a further rethinking of the Trump administration’s tough policies.
The more there are rumors that China has a secret relationship that went well for the Biden family for decades. Biden’s four years as US president are likely to be enough to become China’s president, Xi Jinping. Fulfill the ambitions of organizing a new world centered on China. Step into a tech powerhouse and make Made in China 2025 a beautiful success.
Thairath Online News Team Report
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