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December 17, 2020
203
Broke notes that DTAC compensates half of the registered clients. The impact of earnings decreased 7.9% – 0.18 baht share value. Nomura Pattanasin Securities Expect to affect the stock price in the short term as it is less likely to cost the remedy. – a temporary negative factor because most of them should be in the form of a discount on the device, etc.
Total Access Communication Public Company Limited or DTAC stock price movement this morning (December 17), the latest drop in 10.52 hours to 36.25 baht, down 1 baht. Or 2.68%
Yesterday (December 16) was the first day registration was opened for half of the people in Phase 2, which attracted a lot of attention. A mobile service provider system, DTAC, was found to have an issue that resulted in clients not receiving half of the project’s OTP messages.
Initially, DTAC expects to compensate no more than 3,500 baht per person through benefits such as recharge bonuses, free calls and discounts on internet and mobile phone purchases. He is expected to apply for the rights from December 17 to 23.
Asia Plus Securities (Securities and Exchange Commission) estimates that these factors are a risk to the estimate, that is, expenses, lost income from repair measures 3,500 baht per person, estimates that there is a probability of 1.0 people affected. Millions (based on 5 million eligible participants and DTAC market share (Number of numbers) with 20.9%
However, I believe that not all customers are affected. You will receive the privilege in time to that initially established by DTAC, therefore, evaluating every 10% of the affected group (1.0 hundred thousand people) will affect the 2020 profit by approximately 5.1% and the share value of 0.11 baht, excluding the impact that may occur. On the other hand, two clients can leave after this, with each 1% client moving in will affect the profit of about 7.9% and the share value of 0.18 baht.
In general, ASPS retained its core value first to see the obvious impact of downside. However, compared to the current price, the advantage was limited, so he reduced the recommendation to a switch to ADVANC that had a clear opportunity to benefit from the situation.
Nomura Pattanasin Securities Co., Ltd. stated that the company assessed the occurrence of problems in the OTP system and transmitted data from the DTAC network interrupted yesterday morning, which will temporarily weaken DTAC’s share price. Because it will affect the image of the service, it will appear weaker and can make it more aggressive for the market. DTAC is recently preparing to issue compensation measures to clients who have been harmed by their inability to register the project. “Half Phase 2”, so the maximum is 3,5 thousand baht.
However, we continue to estimate that the remediation costs incurred by DTAC will be minimal and only a temporary negative factor. Because most of them should take the form of a discount on the device and a limitation of the exercise period.
Therefore, we maintain our 20-22F profit forecast as before. Initially, we expect 4Q20F earnings to grow yy due to the low base in 4Q19 where TFRS16 started (impacted -393 million baht). Learn more about the cost of investing in 5G
While we are concerned about DTAC’s long-term competitiveness, what remains the highlight of DTAC’s shares is i) the cheapest traded share price in the mobile segment, ii) a constant annual dividend payment of 4- 5% for 2H20F. 0.8-0.85 baht / share (2.5% yield) and iii) strategy to use assets for maximum efficiency, so we recommend waiting to buy when it weakens.
