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Enter to invest in October 2020 “Online business news” The investment strategy is compiled with the factors to watch in investing and presented based on the analysis. From Finansia Syrus Securities Public Company Limited
By the investment strategy in October The overall picture is more volatile, focusing on the defensive and domestic game. The movement is estimated at 1,200-1,300 points according to last year’s statistics from the US presidential elections.
As for political factors in the country as a whole, despite signs of further relaxation. But I still have to watch closely.In addition to the COVID19 outbreak, despite positive developments in the COVID-19 vaccine, the increasing number of infections has raised concerns about a slower-than-estimated economic recovery. Including criteria adjustment The ceiling / floor and short market sales are depressing.
Also evaluating SET Target 1,450 years Aim assessing the level in Gradual build-up of basic stocks to 1200 + – Point, with a focus on the domestic group And defensive play Which has low volatility and can overcome The market has recommended stocks for October: ADVANC, GULF, ORI, SAPPE, SYNEX.
Stock statistics for October, before the elections, President Saharat often rested.
Compiling stock market statistics during the month of October prior to the elections. The last 10 presidents (1980-2016) found that the S & P500 fell an average of -1.3%, with the last four of the last five down -5.3%.
The SET index decreased -4.3%. If the year of birth is cut The recession of 2008 and 1996, which is unusually strong, the SET index has risen slightly + 0.5% but volatility is high.
Biden currently leads Trump around 50% to 43%, and the remaining two debates this month could give the popular vote a chance to change, assuming Biden wins the election would be negative for the market. US actions of corporate tax refund policy Including trade policy With China, although it continues to highlight the interests of the United States But in terms of methods, there is a tendency to be less aggressive and compromising. Overall, it is positive for Asian stocks, but if Trump wins the election and becomes the second president, the Trade War could continue to be severe and seen as a “positive influence.” Factors depressing Asian stocks
COVID-19 Vaccine against New outbreak
The COVID-19 issue continues to pressure economic recovery in the 4Q20 1H21 period, despite the current positive development of the vaccine, with 11 vaccines in phase III trials, the final phase and five. Allowed for limited use Has a high probability of success and begins commercial production late this year or early next year.
However, the number of infected people continues to rise and is quite likely. Worrying, especially in the European region Including the US which started to see signs of acceleration Cooler weather like fall and winter is expected to trigger new outbreaks. This could affect global gambling stocks, including travel, airlines, airports, energy, and petrochemicals. Continue to have high volatility
Domestic politics showed signs of improvement, but still uncertain.
Political factors in the country as a whole have Sentiment. Better from the point of view Changes in the strategic chairman and executive committee of the Pheu Thai Party Causing the current to predict that it can reduce the heat AND hold the assembly outside The council may not be as aggressive or as severe as the market worried in the past.
However, uncertainty is expected to remain high, especially remediation issues. The unstable constitution between senators and senators, as well as pressure from the public sector. The Prime Minister confirmed that the Minister of Popular Finance would be sought. New within this month
Expected to be a recently retired senior official and Assume While the shortlist may not generate enthusiasm in the market, they are generally positive for the next phase of economic momentum to support the COVID-crisis. 19, and measures are expected to be launched. Additional stimulus during the final curve of this year. In addition to stimulating domestic tourism, gradually begin to open up to foreign tourists And especially Even more tax reduction measures, such as purchases, help the nation
Volatility will increase after adjusting the short sell threshold. And ceiling / floor
Another factor that is expected to make the market more volatile in October is the adjustment of both market thresholds. Roof / Floor Return to +/- 30% as before, after temporarily falling to +/- 15% during COVID-19, including a short sell threshold returning to the normal Zero Plus Tick threshold (capable of selling at the price of offer). Based on temporal criteria, Up Tick performs great actions.
Specifically, Global Play could be a target to be shortened in accordance with a more volatile investment climate, both because of the issues of the US presidential elections and the aforementioned COVID-19 situation, and affect the SET Index in its set. Additional actions at 1240 // 1200 points
Overall, we look at the general outlook for the October market, which is volatile, especially external factors, including internal factors that are still uncertain. Even if the index is off Key support levels around 1300 points in the previous month But still looking at the recession in the market as a time to accumulate basic stocks for medium and long-term investments, looking at the appropriate point at the accumulation of 1,200 + – points.
The SET target remains at 1,450 points next year and still prefers the national game to the global game due to low volatility and price adjustment. However, the operating results expected a recovery and the assessment was quite clear. Especially related to essential products and services, including food and beverage, power plants, low-rise real estate, medical communications.
