The car
Published on 2nd October 2nd, 2020 |
By Zachary Shahn
220 October October, 2020 By Zachary Shahn
Elon Musk tweeted some big news about Tesla’s future plans this week. However, it wasn’t about immediate plans and it followed Tesla’s huge Battery Day event, so it looks like it’s lost in the shuffle.
First, Musk tweeted that Tesla plans to reach 20 million vehicles a year by 2030. He acknowledged that it was an ambitious plan that “needs consistent execution.” Still, it’s basically Tesla’s full history. That is Built on Ambitious plans that many see as “impossible,” but the company has consistently got the job done.
That’s the total market, not all Tesla. We’ve seen Tesla reach 20M vehicles / year before 20M, but it needs consistently excellent implementation.
– Elon Musk (elonmusk) September 28, 2020
However, from today, Rs 200 crore is a big increase. The question this year is whether Tesla will reach the guidance of its 500,000 vehicles. At a glance, 200 million is a long way off. However, an increase to 500,000 by 2020 was probably even more difficult than an increase from 500,000 to 20 million.
Seven years, maybe six years to guarantee 30M + new full electric vehicles every year. Five years is possible, but unlikely. One extra year makes a huge difference when it comes to exponentials.
– Elon Musk (elonmusk) September 28, 2020
Dominance of Tesla in 2020
We have an in-depth analysis of this plan coming soon, but I will quickly run into some issues.
First of all, while I think Tesla Key Tech (batteries and software software) is years ahead, it is very surprising to see that Musk forecasts annual production and sales of 30+ million electric vehicles globally (by all companies) by 2027. Doing and Tesla’s production and sales of 20 million by 2030. It’s not the same timeline, but it’s clear that Musk sees Tesla as the most influential player in the global EV industry – in the coming decade.
Going a mile back, 20+ million cars a year is not just a big number for the electric vehicle market – it’s a huge number for any auto tomer. When I examined the 10 largest auto tomakers in the world and their electric vehicle plans back in 2018, I found that # 1 Toyota sells 10.2 million vehicles a year, # 2 Volkswagen Group sells 10.1 million vehicles a year, and # 3 Hyundai / Kia rode 9.9 million vehicles a year.
So, there will be about 20+ million of the world’s two largest auto toe manufacturers, which sold in 2017 … combined.
You may believe that the target is real, but believe it or not, 2 million vehicles a year is a stunning production and sales target.
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About the author
Zachari Shah is at one time striving to help society help himself with one word. He spends most of his time here Clintenica As its director, editor-in-chief and CEO. Zach is known globally as a specialist in electric vehicle, solar energy and storage. He has presented about Cleantech in conferences including India, UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Netherlands, USA, Canada and Qurao. Zach has long-term investments in NIOs [NIO], Tesla [TSLA], And exping [XPEV]. But it does not offer any kind of investment advice (explicitly or implicitly).
