Tensions over the Nile River dam project as heavy rains sow confusion

Its goal is to provide electricity to around 60% of Ethiopian households that have so far not been covered by the electricity grid, and is part of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s vision to transform the country into a major regional energy exporter.

Without electricity, many Ethiopians depend on reducing forests for firewood, while 40% of the country that is technically connected to the grid suffers from disruptive power cuts, Birhanu Lenjiso, co-founder of the Institute for Policy Research of East africa.

“It is a very serious situation. It is a very sad situation that we have lived like this for centuries when in reality we contribute about 85% of the water of the Nile and we are not using any of that water,” he added.

“My father and grandfather have lived on the Nile and my children and grandchildren will live on the Nile,” Ahmed Abdel-Wahab, a farmer in southern Egypt, told CNN. He speculated that the dam could cause a 60% drop in its annual crops and an increase in water costs. “We are very concerned. All the farmers are concerned,” he said.

Speaking to CNN, Ethiopia’s Minister of Water, Irrigation and Energy, Seleshi Bekele, dismissed previous reports that the country had begun to fill the reservoir and said that the rain had caused “accumulation” there.

Seleshi said active filling of the dam would begin in two years, when construction work is complete, indicating that there is still time for more talks.

Analysts agree that the water seen in the satellite images is very likely to be rain.

“Because the dam has reached a fairly advanced stage of construction, there was already a natural backing of the river behind it, due to the rainy season,” Ethiopian senior analyst with the International Crisis Group told Davis CNNIS, from the Ethiopian capital Addis. Ababa

Managing the longest river in the world

Not surprisingly, managing the waters of the Nile is a complicated matter. The river stretches over 4,100 miles and flows through 11 countries.

The Blue Nile, the artery that gives the river more than 80% of its waters, begins at Lake Tana in Ethiopia. It meets the mainstream, the White Nile, in Khartoum, Sudan, and then flows through Egypt and into the Mediterranean Sea.

Since then, there has been a verbal agreement to fill the dam in eight years, Hafsa Halawa, a non-resident scholar at the Washington, DC-based Middle East Institute, told CNN.

Egypt is concerned that rapid filling will lead to a drop in the amount of water reaching its portion of the Nile.

So far, the three countries have not been able to agree on who would conduct the required environmental studies, what access to give researchers and how binding the results should be.

Then comes the question of what would happen if a prolonged drought hit the region.

With a heavy rainy season and agreement in principle on an eight-year fill schedule, there are no immediate problems on the horizon, but Cairo is concerned that future drought or other potential projects will disrupt the flow of water throughout the Nile.

Ethiopia is interested in all parties doing their own drought mitigation, such as Egypt using its own reserves on its Upper Aswan dam, Davison told CNN.

It also wants to address issues as they arise and, as far as possible, not commit to predetermined arrangements such as releasing specific amounts of water downstream from its reservoirs during dry periods, he added.

“The problem remains the future,” said Halawa. “Ethiopia continues to view these negotiations as a way to agree on GERD management and compliance. It does not see them as a broader water security and distribution agreement. Egypt does. And that is fundamentally the legal and technical difference.”

Colonial era agreements

“While we recognize Ethiopia’s right to development, the water of the Nile is a matter of life, a matter of existence for Egypt,” Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi told the United Nations last year.

Earlier this year, Sisi relied on U.S. mediation in hopes of reaching a deal, but Ethiopia pulled out of the Trump-sponsored talks, claiming that a proposed U.S. deal included drought mitigation proposals that favored Cairo.

“Ethiopia will never sign an agreement that renounces its right to use the Nile River,” said Ethiopia’s ambassador to the United States, Fitsum Arega.

The last attempt to bring countries to the negotiating table was in June, under the leadership of the African Union with the United Nations Security Council, closely monitoring developments.

A project of national unity

In Ethiopia, the success of the GERD project is considered essential not only to elevate the country’s role in the region, but also to unite a fractured nation rocked by ethnic violence.

Critics have accused Prime Minister Abiy of failing to control ethnic violence in the country, despite receiving a 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his role in ending a 20-year civil war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Therefore, the dam project has become a source of national pride. It is fully self-financed, 20% through bonds and 80% from Ethiopian taxpayers, and is showing some success in uniting the country. The #ItsMyDam hashtag was trending on Twitter in Ethiopia last week.

“The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a national project that [got] The support of the government, the opposition parties and the public as well. It has been a joining force in Ethiopia, as it has been built with Ethiopian money, “Addisu Lashitew, a member of the Brookings Institute’s Global Economy and Development program, told CNN.

Despite what seemed like an end to negotiations last week, the three countries agreed to meet again this week. “There is no other way but to reach an agreement,” Lashitew added.