- Greece and Turkey are at loggerheads over a disputed patch of the Mediterranean and the rights to resources it may have.
- The dispute is not new, but tensions are rising, and an armed clash between two NATO allies is not what the alliance as the US had previously done.
- Visit the Business Insider website for more stories.
In the last month, Greece and Turkey, two allies of the US and NATO, have repeatedly come close to a military clash over a stretch of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Background
The latest tension arose after Turkey reserved an area in the Eastern Mediterranean to explore for natural resources under water. But the area lies within the exclusive economic zones of Cyprus and Greece (although Greece has not formally declared an EEZ due to tensions with Turkey).
Turkey is fighting Greek sovereignty and has deployed the research ship Oruç Reis to the region with a fleet of warships to protect it. Greece has responded by sending its fleet.
The research ship Oruc Reis sails with Turkish warships.
Turkish Ministry of Defense
Despite Turkish claims, and according to international law, the area of the sea in question and the seabed below belong to Greece because of the small island of Kastellorizo.
Although the island is located about 2 kilometers from Turkey, it is inhabited and part of Greece. Thus, according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Kastellorizo has the same rights as any other part of Greece.
Although the US recognizes the validity of the Greek position, it will not take sides in the dispute because of its close relationship with both countries.
Kastellorizo, the easternmost island of Greece, is just 2 kilometers from the mainland of Turkey.
Google Maps
The two fleets capsized when tensions rose, threatening to explode with the worst of accidents, as one a few days ago when Turkish frigate Kemal Reis attempted to overtake Greek frigate Limnos.
Due to poor seafaring, however, the Turkish ship did not calculate its path correctly and was rammed by the Greek warship. Although the damage was not life-threatening, the Turkish ship had to enter port for immediate repairs.
Geopolitical situation
The Turkish frigate Kemal Reis after collision with Greek frigate Limnos.
Hellenic Ministry of Defense
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has calculated that this is the right time to act. Indeed, the international stars seem to be laying out in favor of his country.
First, the US is heading for a fierce presidential election, which has historically diverted US attention from foreign affairs.
Second, Erdogan has a close relationship with the White House and has used it to reassure her ally.
Third, Ankara secretly uses the current presidency of Germany of the EU Council, which rotates every six months between EU members.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Berlin, 4 February 2014.
REUTERS / Tobias Schwarz
Germany and Turkey share a lucrative trade partnership. According to the World Bank, Germany exported in 2018 nearly $ 20.5 billion worth of goods to Turkey and imports just over $ 16 billion, making Berlin third in both imports and exports among Ankara’s trading partners. There is also a significant ethnic Turkish population in Germany that influences German politicians.
Despite its relatively weak global voice, Berlin is a leader in Europe, mostly because of its powerful economy, and has assumed the role in a dispute.
The Greek position is to abide by international law, which is on the sidelines, and meet every Turkish provocation with determination and force. Meanwhile, Greek diplomacy has succeeded in isolating Turkey, with many peoples – including Egypt, Cyprus and Israel – condemning Turkey’s actions. The US and France have conducted military exercises with Greece in the area as a show of solidarity. (The US and Turkey have also conducted recent exercises.)
Importantly, the Chief of Staff of Greece of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Constantine Floros, said that a Greek response to a Turkish attack would not be limited to a particular area, making Turkish officials likely to think twice before acting.
Greek naval frigate Aigaion during a multinational exercise in the Mediterranean, 7 August 2019.
JACK GUEZ / AFP via Getty Images
Turkey’s position is to force Greece to the negotiating table – something, interestingly, that Greece also wants and has sought since Turkey stopped unilateral diplomatic discussions on the issue in 2016.
Ankara understands that its position in terms of international law is weak and its allies in the region a few. Thus, it believes that threat of war would make Greece easier for an agreement that gives Turkey a piece of the pie of natural resources.
Turkey does not recognize the International Court of Justice as UNCLOS, both of which would be the key to settling the dispute.
Implications for the US
President Donald Trump with Erdogan during a news conference in the White House, November 13, 2019.
Reuters
The consequences for the US and for NATO of a conflict between two members of the alliance are difficult to judge. There has never been an incident where two NATO allies got into a fight.
Relations between the US and Turkey have been steadily declining in recent years. Turkey’s purchase of the advanced Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system prompted the US to refuse delivery of the F-35 fighter jet. The Turkish invasion of northern Syria, targeting the Kurds, a longtime American partner and leader in the fight against ISIS, led to sanctions against high-ranking Turkish officials and to tariffs on Turkish steel.
Moreover, the recent revelation that Ankara has provided Turkish citizenship and passports to Hamas workers is bound to disrupt relations between the US and Turkey. The US declared Hamas a terrorist organization in 1997. The passports offer great freedom of movement to Hamas terrorists, with the help of their malicious activities.
Adding insult to injury, Erdogan recently hosted two senior Hamas leaders who have targeted U.S. specially designated global terrorists.
US Navy escorted missile destroyer USS Winston S. Churchill during an exercise with frigates of the Turkish Navy TCG Barbaros and Burgazada in the Mediterranean, August 2020.
US Naval Forces Europe-Africa
The US does not want to push Turkey to Russia or Iran, and successive US governments have recognized the country’s value for US interests in the region, both based on its general location and assets there, such as the nuclear missiles in Incirlik. Air Base.
However, if Turkey is to be driven to change its behavior – as its actions suggest it should be – then the US needs to re-examine the geopolitical balance in the region.
Erdogan understands and benefits from the strategic importance of his country for the US, and uses it to pursue an increasingly fierce foreign policy that often has direct conflict with the US.
When it comes to slapping, the US and EU will call for an immediate end to hostility, but they probably do not do much more than that. It is then likely that Greece and Turkey will sort it out among themselves, with the lasting geopolitical consequences only becoming clear once the smoke is cleared.
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (National Service with the 575th Marine Battalion & Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate.
