On Monday morning, as Azar marched on the Taiwanese capital Taipei, several Chinese gunmen briefly crossed the de facto maritime border separating the island from mainland China. Later that week, the Chinese military conducted large-scale drills in waters near Taiwan, and appeared in Beijing’s state media as a “warning” to those seeking the island’s independence.
The trip through Azar – the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the island since 1979 – is the latest in a series of high-profile moves by the Trump administration to bring the U.S. closer to Taiwan.
“The message to Beijing is that we have a partner in the US and the US has friendship in Taiwan,” Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said in an interview with CNN on Wednesday.
“The US says publicly … their relations with Taiwan are independent of their relations with anyone else,” Wu said. “We’re always facing the Chinese threat and it does not matter whether the relations between Taiwan and the US are good or bad, it is always there.”
But with Washington moving closer to Taiwan, and the upcoming US presidential election likely to further destabilize the already volatile US-China relationship, Taipei could find itself in a precarious position with Beijing.
Maggie Lewis, an expert in contemporary Chinese law at Seton Hall University, said Taiwan currently needed stability from its relationship with the US, and substantive gestures instead of words of support.
“What Taiwan needs from the US is a strong stable marriage, not a very passionate romance,” Lewis said.
Warming relationships
As its power and influence have grown, the Chinese government has indicated that the world recognizes its One China policy, which states that there is only one China and that Taiwan is a part of it.
Although Washington publicly acknowledges One China policy does not recognize Beijing’s claims on the island and provides regular support, including large – scale military hardware sales, to Taipei.
“This position is consistent and clear … I want to emphasize that the One China principle is universally recognized by the international community. Any attempt to ignore, refuse or challenge that principle is doomed to failure,” said a spokesman for Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Wenbin on 5 August.
Experts said China’s response to Azar’s visit had been relatively limited so far.
“(But) that should not be built as … Beijing’s acceptance of improving relations between the US and Taiwan,” said Zhiqun Zhu, professor of political science and international relations at Bucknell University.
“I think it does nothing now, but that does not mean it will do nothing in the future.”
The ‘difficult position’ of Taiwan
Relations between Beijing and Taipei have been assassinated since the 2016 election of Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen, who was seen by the Chinese government as a proponent of the island’s formal independence.
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Wu said the Taipei government was “very concerned” about declining relations with Beijing. In particular, he feared that the Chinese Communist Party of Taiwan might try to use Taiwan as a distraction from growing economic and social problems domestically.
“From Taiwan’s perspective, the better the relations between Taiwan and the US, the better protected Taiwan will be,” he said.
In comparison, just 36% said the same about building ties with the Xi Jinping administration in Beijing.
However, there have been indications that President Tsai and her government are afraid to move too quickly to embrace the US, or are caught in the growing tensions between the two powers.
“But (we) should also not be clumsy to move forward because of support,” she said, responding that her government would remain cautious in its relations with Beijing, despite Washington’s public gestures of solidarity.
Foreign Minister acknowledged that Taiwan wanted to oppose China. “We have our own strategy in dealing with China and our strategy is that we do not want to get into a situation where Taiwan will be seen as a target,” he said. “We do not want any provocation against China.”
Even though the Taiwanese government may be internally uncomfortable to oppose Beijing by moving closer to the US, experts said it does not have much real choice.
Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, said the island did not have many international friends and that Taipei, opposed to an aggressive Chinese government, did not have many options but to embrace the US.
“Taiwan is in a very difficult position. The US is the only government that will come out openly to support them,” he said. “That they can not afford not to work with what administration is in place in Washington.”
To November
Experts said all of these decisions were probably designed in part to help U.S. President Trump run in the November election by showing that he was worried about China.
But there is no solid indication as to whether this stubborn attitude toward Beijing will remain after the election, whether Trump wins or not.
Wu said he and his government were already in contact with Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s election campaign officials to voice their concerns about the future of Taiwanese relations.
“They said the US is divided on all sorts of issues, but this one issue unites the US and that is the issue of Taiwan,” he said. “They say Taiwan is very supportive on the (Capital) hill on both sides of the aisle and Taiwan is supported by the Democratic and Republican parties.”
Zhu, the professor at Bucknell University, said a long-term antagonistic relationship between the US and China after November was not sustainable, given the number of international economic and security issues the two countries needed to work on together.
“I think Taiwan needs to think about it … what they are doing now makes sense from their perspective, but is it Taiwan’s long – term interests?” he said.
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