Yes survey for SVP initiative – cover ban: why the wind could change to no

On November 29, 2009, those eligible to vote had accepted the Egerking Committee’s minaret initiative with more than 57 percent of the vote in favor. Three weeks earlier, in a poll, only 37 percent said they would vote in favor.

On March 7 this year, the Egerking Committee will again present a proposal for the banning of the veil (burqa initiative). It is again directed against political Islam and again tackles a problem that is politically and emotionally charged, but does not play a significant role in the reality of life for most people in Switzerland.

In the SRG poll released today, a clear majority of 56 percent of respondents are in favor of this initiative. If one takes the initiative of the minaret scale, then the initiators could already pop the corks; the popular yes seems true.

Therefore the approval could decline

However, there are good reasons why there could still be a no at the polls on March 7.

• The minaret initiative represented an almost revolutionary phase in Swiss direct democracy. Between 2004 (custody initiative) and 2014 (mass immigration initiative, pedophile initiative), eight popular initiatives were adopted, most of which were launched or supported by the SVP. This phase is absolutely unique in Swiss history and came to an abrupt halt in 2014. Since then, not a single popular initiative has been adopted.
• The SVP, with which the Egerking Committee is closely linked in terms of content and staff, has struggled with its demarcation and foreign affairs in recent years. Enforcement, self-determination and limitation initiatives were clearly rejected. The fierce opposition facilitated by the naturalization of the third generation of foreigners, on the other hand, was also clearly accepted. This thematic focus also led the SVP directly to electoral defeat in the fall of 2019.
• Since the 2019 elections, the formula for success “younger, more feminine, greener” has also been reflected in the votes: in the no to the hunting law, in the yes extremely adjusted to the proposal of the combat aircraft and also in the popular majority in the group responsibility initiative. Younger, greener, more woman: that also means more votes for the burqa initiative.

The current support for the initiative to ban the veiling is impressive, and the Swiss electorate is always good for a surprise. However, as explained above, there are some indications that the initiative is following the path of many initiatives in recent years: After an initial wave of sympathy, the rejection was imposed on voting day.

Urs Leuthard

Head of the television department of the Bundeshaus SRF

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Urs Leuthard has been head of the Bundeshaus editorial team at SRF television since the summer of 2020. He has been moderating the “Voting Study” since 2002 and analyzes elections and voting. Until 2008 he was moderator and editor-in-chief of the “Arena”, after which he moved to the “Rundschau”, before in 2012 he assumed the editorial direction of the “Tagesschau”. Since 2016, Urs Leuthard has been in charge of newsroom development at SRF Television.