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Donald Trump may lose the election and still be sworn in again on January 20, 2021. Image: EPA
Election horror scenario: Trump loses and remains in office
Donald Trump claims that the Democrats wanted to “steal” his electoral victory. It could work the other way around: Republicans are fooling Joe Biden into victory. And that in a “legal” way.
America’s presidential recount is turning into a nightmare. Almost everything points to a victory for Joe Biden. But litigation and recount are scheduled in the contested states. It could take some time before a final result is available.
On the one hand, everything is clear: Donald Trump declared himself the winner during his appearance at the White House on Friday night. All votes counted after Election Day were “illegal,” the president asserted in blatant disregard for the democratic rules of the game that can only disturb those who do not understand Trump’s character.
“Trump’s refusal to accept defeat is impossible or even probable; it is simply unavoidable,” writes Lawrence Douglas, professor of constitutional law at Massachusetts’ prestigious Amherst College, in his book “Will I Go?” It deals with the scenario of an unclear electoral result.
Anti-democratic process
In this case, something really disturbing could happen: Joe Biden wins both the majority of the votes and (apparently!) In the Electoral College, and yet Donald Trump remains fairly “legally” in office. Responsible for such a horror scenario is the fact that the constitution and laws do not adequately regulate the election of the president.
“The constitution does not guarantee a peaceful change of power, it presupposes it. The rules are supposed to be followed automatically, ”Lawrence Douglas said in an interview with Watson. Donald Trump doesn’t want to do this. In this case, a confusing, contradictory and, ultimately, undemocratic process begins.
Concession speech
Al Gore dropped out of the race in 2000 despite controversial circumstances. Image: AP CNN
The crux of a regulated transfer of power is the so-called concession speech. If possible, the loser stands in front of his supporters on election night and admits defeat. It is a purely symbolic act. Neither the constitution nor any law requires such a speech. But it triggers everything else.
Similar to a declaration of surrender in a war, the Concession Speech is a signal for your own troops to lay down their arms and stop fighting. This has almost always worked in American history. Even Hillary Clinton got over him four years ago and admitted her completely unexpected defeat to Donald Trump.
The speech in the controversial 2000 elections was particularly symbolic. The Supreme Court had stopped the count in Florida with a controversial verdict. Democrat Al Gore later called off the fight, although many around him had advised against him. But Gore wanted to save the country another test.
Electoral College
Van Jones explains the worst case scenario. Video: YouTube / TED
“You cannot at all imagine that Donald Trump would act the same way,” Douglas said in the Watson interview. The next step is, therefore, the turn of the Electoral College. The body must elect the president on December 14. Its composition is really determined by the outcome of the elections.
However, if Donald Trump deviates, it could cause chaos, as former Obama adviser Van Jones describes in a YouTube video. The procedure is so complicated that most Americans do not succeed. In any case, it may happen that the Electoral College cannot determine a winner either.
House of Representatives
Dark clouds over the Capitol: will the election be decided here? Image: keystone
In such a case, the House of Representatives must elect the President on January 6. At first glance, this is good news for Joe Biden, because Democrats will also be a majority in the newly elected House. But now a rule comes into play that finally leads the way to Absurdistan.
Because it is not the plenary session that determines the president, but the delegations of the 50 states. And there the Republicans are in the majority! They could act regardless of the election result, as Van Jones emphasizes, and help loser Donald Trump stay in the White House.
Like I said, all of this would be completely legal. This process shows the dysfunctionality of the supposed model of American democracy. Of course, resistance would be programmed in such a case. Van Jones calls for nonviolent protests in his video, but it is questionable whether it would remain that way in highly polarized America.
Waiting for McConnell?
An escalation can only be avoided if President Trump finally relents and accepts his defeat. His narcissism makes this unlikely, but perhaps those around him can lead him to reason. Or Republicans in Congress, where criticism is just beginning to be heard.
The relationship between Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump is considered to be quite distant. Image: EPA
The key figure would be Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader. He is a man of cynical power, as recently demonstrated in the succession plan ruthlessly enforced by the late Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg. But his relationship with Donald Trump is considered distant, they form an alliance of purposes.
McConnell could make Trump stand down. If not, he and the Republicans could choose to respect the will of the electorate and help Joe Biden win when it really comes down to the showdown. But that would provoke the ire of the Donald Trump “fan club” they depend on.
Like I said, it’s the worst case. At best, there will be an orderly power shift even without Trump’s concession speech. At best, the Secret Service would have to kick the president out of the White House. In any case, the next few weeks could be stormy.
