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It seems highly unlikely that Trump can still win through the legal process. Image: imago / shutterstock / watson
Trump wants to challenge Biden’s election: these are his chances
It will be more than two months before Joe Biden takes office in January. A lot can happen until then, and if President Donald Trump had his way, the courts would intervene until then to prevent Biden from entering the White House. Trump and his Republicans have filed lawsuits in several states with tight results and want to demand vote counts. Biden’s leadership in the disputed countries is sometimes quite small. So could his victory be undone? It seems highly unlikely that Trump can still win through the legal process. An overview:
What is the role of the judiciary?
In the US, complaints are always made quickly and abundantly. In the vast majority of election years, when a candidate had a good head start, one or two demands could not affect the outcome of the election. Furthermore, the courts cannot rule on the outcome of the elections, not even the Supreme Court of Washington, the Supreme Court. However, state courts or higher authorities can decide on the legality of time limits, counting rules, or the validity of certain results. However, the recounts are carried out by the local electoral authorities.
How realistic is Trump’s hope?
If Biden’s election victory depended on a narrow result in one or two states, Trump might still have a chance. A judgment in his favor for the admission of some votes or the legality of the voting deadlines and procedures could, theoretically, tilt the result in a very tight state like Georgia. The same applies to the counting of votes, which is required in some places.
In the race to secure the necessary majority of 270 voters, Biden is now so far ahead of Trump that one or two successful lawsuits probably shouldn’t matter anymore. If, contrary to expectations, Biden lost a state due to a trial or recount, he would still have a sufficient advantage over Trump based on the current state of the recount. According to forecasts, it should ultimately get about 300 votes.
Stick with golf: Donald Trump. Image: keystone
Why is Pennsylvania so important?
The most dangerous thing for Biden would be losing Pennsylvania in a legal battle. It is the largest controversial state with 20 voters to assign. Therefore, Trump’s lawyers are likely to go to great lengths to protect the state. Among other things, they hope to challenge the result before the Supreme Court. Specifically, there is a lawsuit pending there against an extension of the deadline for submitting vote-by-mail documents due to the corona pandemic.
The Supreme Court did not revoke the extension immediately before the elections, but reserved the right to discuss the case in more detail after the vote. Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar, who is responsible for conducting elections in Pennsylvania, said ballots received after Election Day would be counted separately due to the lawsuit. It’s about a few thousand votes that should hardly make a difference, he said.
Trump doesn’t have the Supreme Court in his pocket?
Trump has a home court advantage on the Supreme Court: Six of the nine judges for life are considered conservatives, three of whom the same Republican nominated. Some complaints about the election had already reached the judges before the vote, mostly for quite technical reasons. One question was, for example, whether a court or only the parliament of the state in question can change the deadline for accepting ballots. In the judges’ decisions, there was no clear trend towards party membership. Conservative Judge Amy Coney Barrett, who was only appointed in late October, abstained from voting on several decisions.
Mineral Conservator: Amy Coney Barrett. Image: www.imago-images.de
But were there no cases of electoral fraud?
Trump repeatedly complains of “massive electoral fraud.” Trump is angry that his election victory is “stolen” and because of the dark machinations of the Democrats he may lose. But despite all the angry accusations, Trump has thus far provided no evidence other than rumors, so he should hardly have a chance in court.
The heads of the electoral authorities of the disputed states, including Republicans and Democrats, rejected Trump’s accusations. Prominent Republicans in Congress made similar statements. “You are wrong when you say the election was bogus, flawed and stolen,” Sen. Mitt Romney said. “That hurts the cause of freedom here and around the world.” Trump was weakening the institutions that formed the basis of the republic and fueling dangerous anger, said the influential senator, known as a critic of Trump.
According to experts and scientific studies, voter fraud is extremely rare in the United States. According to experts at the think tank Brennan Center, only about 0.0025 percent of the votes cast in polling stations were fraudulent, and even less for votes by mail. Statistically, he was more likely to be struck by lightning, he said.
Could the counts change the results?
The right to vote in the US is determined individually by each state, so there are also different regulations for counting. Votes are generally counted again when the result is extremely close or, for example, requested by a very inferior candidate. Trump is likely to seek a recount in Wisconsin, Georgia and possibly Pennsylvania as well. In return, Biden’s lead should be a maximum of 0.5 percentage points.
In the past, the results of the counts in the states have changed only marginally. For example, four years ago in Wisconsin, at the request of a losing candidate, all votes were counted again: the election winner, Trump, increased his lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton by 131 votes.
Have the courts determined the outcome of the US elections?
In the controversial elections of 2000, Supreme Court justices played a decisive role: At that time, whether George W. Bush or Al Gore became the next president depended only on the outcome in the populous state of Florida. The legal battle for the result and the stories lasted for a month, before the Supreme Court. After that, Gore admitted defeat. Republican Bush won by 537 votes, secured the votes of the Florida electorate, and became president of the United States.
October 17, 2000: George W. Bush and Al Gore in the third debate. Bild: AP / AP
When will there finally be clarity?
Difficult weeks are ahead for the United States, because the suspension game could drag on for another month: States must certify their final results before December 8 and report them to Washington. This deadline, known as “safe harbor,” was one of the key factors in Gore’s decision to admit defeat in 2000.
What if the port is not safe?
If the dispute continues beyond the deadline, things could get complicated. In that case, the outcome of a state like Pennsylvania, where Republicans control parliament, could be decisive. Parliament could declare Trump the winner of the election by certifying the results under the guise of electoral fraud, even if Biden had received the most votes. The democratic governor has yet to sign the result. Then he could send another result to Washington: chaos would be programmed in such a situation.
An equally controversial election could only be resolved in 1877 through a political exchange. If the electoral college could not elect a president in December, that role would fall to the House of Representatives. There everything would then be based on the delegations of the states, of which Trump’s Republicans have a majority. Such a scenario is not impossible, but unlikely: Republican MPs would have to oppose the will of the majority of voters in their state and the majority of votes cast by Biden in the United States.
When is everything dry?
Therefore, Americans should not breathe a sigh of relief until next year: the electorate will vote on December 14 and the result will be read in Congress on January 6. Only then is it official who has won the elections. Left-wing US Senator Bernie Sanders told CNN that ultimately it was “not important” whether Trump admitted defeat or not. “Joe Biden won the election and will take office.” This date is January 20, when the next president will be sworn in in front of the Capitol in Washington. (sda / dpa)
