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The number of infections should have dropped to around 500 cases a day by the end of December, instead they are increasing again. Yesterday there were 5136 new infections. “The last time we had so many cases was in mid-November,” Federal Councilor Alain Berset told the media yesterday. And at that time the trend was down, the replay value sank to 0.75.
It now stands at 1.07 for all of Switzerland. If the value is greater than 1, we speak of exponential growth, the epidemic is back in full swing. Berset indicated a third wave that is at the start, but starts from a much higher level than the first two waves.
The reproduction factor is calculated ten days back because only then is all the necessary data available. Therefore, it indicates a trend that is clearly going in the wrong direction in the different cantons. At the top is Glarus with an R value of 1.37. Therefore, ten people from Glarus infect an average of 14 other people.
From an epidemiological point of view, therefore, it is clear that the Federal Council is trying to minimize human-to-human contact. Because we are in the most difficult phase. The greatest risk of contagion is in the closed inland areas, where we will be staying mainly in the coming winter months, and it will be a few months before the vaccination campaigns come into force, which will probably start in January.
To reduce risk, restaurants, at least in those cantons with an R value greater than 1, should close at 7 pm Catering establishments are not access points, it is stated. In fact, the number of studies on risks in catering establishments is small. It is also not possible to quantify exactly how much this blocking of night hours contributes.
For the Federal Council, however, the focus is on not even allowing contacts to be made to contain the pandemic. Furthermore, the vast majority of innkeepers go to great lengths to adhere to the concepts of protection. Not all guests are very disciplined, as you can see for yourself.
Avoid contacts in general, no matter where
The aim is to avoid mass gatherings, not only in the restaurant, but also in the sales on Sundays, in the church and during the holidays, also in private. For cultural and social reasons, an exception will be made on December 24 and 31 and the curfew will be lifted.
For the well-being of society, the epidemiological imperative of the moment is abandoned for a moment, and for many people it is important to go to church at Christmas.
In general, very thoughtful holidays are the order of the day, no more than two households are allowed to meet. Perhaps with good reason, if you look at the events in the US after the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26. Despite recommendations from US health officials that family reunions and travel should be avoided, many Americans have not.
As always, in this case it is difficult to trace the exact sources of infection. However, what is certain is that the number of infections since Thanksgiving has been alarmingly high. 218,000 new infections were reported Wednesday, as well as a high number of Covid 19 patients in hospitals and 3,000 deaths.
So in Switzerland it is also advisable to exercise caution during Christmas, because the number of infections per million inhabitants in Switzerland is not much lower than in the United States.
