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The ‘last try’: Brexit is now about fish
This weekend there could finally be a breakthrough in the negotiations. The answers to the 10 most important questions.
What is the current Brexit situation?
The EU and the UK still have 14 days to agree on a new free trade agreement. The 700-page contract is practically negotiated. There could be a “Brexmas”, a Brexit Christmas. But one last obstacle remains: fishing rights.
Why is fishing so important?
At around 0.1 per cent of the UK’s gross domestic product, fishing is economically insignificant. But she gets very excited. In the coastal regions of France and Great Britain, fishing creates as much identity as alpine agriculture in the Swiss mountainous areas. Whoever stabs fishermen in the back has a political problem. To reach an agreement, one would only have to answer a simple question: How much fish can European fishermen get out of British waters? But: For the British, the meaning of Brexit is condensed in the fish question: “Regain control” – “Regain control”. Symbolically it is about national sovereignty. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is under pressure from hardliners of Brexit in his own party not to give in here.
How fixed is December 31, 2020, the current deadline for negotiations, really?
Very fast. The Brexit transition period ends on December 31. It is a legal fact. Boris Johnson ruled out an extension early on. Furthermore, parliaments on both sides would have to ratify the agreement beforehand. The EU Parliament has already warned: if there is no agreement by this Sunday, it will no longer be able to sign the contract before the end of the year.
What exactly if there is no deal?
Tariffs: Without a free trade agreement, high tariffs and trade restrictions will take effect on January 1. Consumer products, but also medicines and other goods, would suddenly become more expensive.
Traffic jams: around 9,000 trucks cross the English Channel every day. Customs checks will cause traffic jams for miles on both sides. Kentuckians are concerned their region will become the “toilet of England” if all the waiting truckers have to urinate.
Food shortages: The island nation of Great Britain is dependent on food imports. Security of supply was already an argument in the vote to join the EU in 1975. British supermarkets have been replenishing their stocks for months. However, there should be bottlenecks.
And if there’s still a deal, is everything okay?
No. Either way, the kingdom abandons the customs union and the internal market. Customs formalities must also be completed when a free trade agreement is concluded. Anyway, there will be traffic jams, also at airports: in order to free movement of people, traveling to and from the UK will be more cumbersome in the future. By the way, this also applies to British cats and dogs – they lose their EU pet passport.
Who would lose the most in a “no deal”: Britain or the EU?
The “no deal” would affect the UK’s smaller, import-dependent economy more than the EU. Experts speak of an “asymmetric shock”. There are several studies on the numbers, some of which differ significantly in their analyzes. The UK government estimates that its economy could contract more than 7 percent in the next 15 years. In the European Union minus 1.5 percent is assumed.
Can anyone win anything at all?
The British speculate that they will be able to conclude a series of beneficial trade deals with the whole world after Brexit, for example with the US In the EU, cities like Paris and Frankfurt hope to surpass London as a financial metropolis. However, the bottom line is that Brexit will continue to be a loss for everyone involved.
What would the “No Deal” mean for Switzerland?
Nothing. Switzerland has already regulated its relationship with the UK. The relations organized today in the bilateral agreements with the EU continue largely under the “Mind the Gap” strategy. Of course, Switzerland will not escape the general economic turmoil in Europe due to a “no deal”.
How would it turn out if the British could vote on Brexit again?
Polls have shown a stable majority against Brexit for about three years. However, the ten percent or so who say they are “undecided” is not taken into account. And: In the run-up to the 2016 Brexit vote, polls incorrectly indicated a no.
Whats Next?
Whether there is a deal or not: Brexit is likely to shape European politics for decades to come. The British will maintain a constant dialogue with the EU and, in the optimistic case, will negotiate other agreements. Similar to what Switzerland did. In the pessimistic scenario, the EU and the UK will fight permanently and compete economically.
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